OTF Premium What to expect from Texas based on résumés of previous AP Top 25 preseason No. 1 teams

[Jeff Howe]

Texas entering into Steve Sarkisian’s fifth season on the Forty Acres as the No. 1 in the Associated Press Top 25 doesn’t guarantee anything.

Still, the history of preseason No. 1 teams since 1998 — the first season in which the Bowl Championship Series decided college football’s national champion — is a sign that the Longhorns can almost bank on a prosperous season.

The proof will be in the pudding, whether Texas is destined for a third consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff under Sarkisian. Regardless, there’s a baseline level of success that the previous 27 clubs voted No. 1 in the preseason by AP Top 25 voters has reached.

— Only one of the 27 previous preseason No. 1 teams failed to win 10 or more games. USC opened the 2012 season ranked No. 1 by the AP (LSU was No. 1 in the Coaches Poll) and went 7-6 with a loss to Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Lane Kiffin’s last full season as coach of the Trojans saw USC join Ole Miss (1964) as the only preseason No. 1 teams in history to not appear in the final poll.

— Texas will attempt to join Florida State (1999), USC (2004) and Alabama (2017) as the only preseason No. 1 teams in the BCS/CFP era to win a national championship.

— In the BCS era (1998-2013), four preseason No. 1 teams — Miami (2002), Oklahoma (2003), USC (2005) and Ohio State (2006) — reached the national championship game. The Hurricanes, Trojans and Buckeyes won their respective conference championships; the Sooners lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game.

— While Alabama (2017) is the only preseason No. 1 to win a national championship in the CFP era (since 2014), nine other No. 1 teams made it to the CFP: Florida State (2014), Alabama (2016, 2018 and 2021), Clemson (2019 and 2020) and Georgia (2023 and 2024). Of those eight teams, four (Alabama three times and Clemson in 2019) reached the national championship game.

— Nick Saban’s 2017 Crimson Tide won the national championship with a walk-off victory over Georgia, but the Bulldogs won the SEC title with a win over Auburn. Of the 27 previous preseason No. 1 teams, 14 won at least a share of a conference championship, while Oklahoma (2003), Florida (2009) and Georgia (2023) lost their respective conference title games.

— Eleven preseason No. 1 teams since 1998 didn’t win a conference championship, reach the BCS title game or make the CFP: Nebraska (2000), Florida (2001), Georgia (2008 and 2023), Florida (2009), Alabama (2010, 2013 and 2022), Oklahoma (2011), USC (2012) and Ohio State (2015). The 2015 Buckeyes, the 2022 Crimson Tide and the 2023 Bulldogs are the only AP preseason No. 1 teams since 2014 to not qualify for the CFP in the four-team format.

— Georgia was No. 1 to open the 2024 season, the first in the 12-team CFP format. The Bulldogs went 11-3 and won the SEC championship with an overtime win over Texas before falling to Notre Dame at the Sugar Bowl in the CFP quarterfinals. 

Final results for preseason AP Top 25 No. 1 teams since 1998

2024: Georgia (11-3, SEC champions, lost in the CFP quarterfinals to Notre Dame)

2023: Georgia (13-1, lost the SEC championship game to Alabama, Orange Bowl champions)

2022: Alabama (11-2, didn’t make it to SEC championship game, Sugar Bowl champions)

2021: Alabama (13-2, SEC champions, Cotton Bowl champions, lost the CFP national championship to Georgia)

2020: Clemson (10-2, ACC champions, lost in the CFP semifinals to Ohio State)

2019: Clemson (14-1, ACC champions, Fiesta Bowl champions, lost the CFP national championship to LSU)

2018: Alabama (14-1, SEC champions, Orange Bowl champions, lost the CFP national championship to Clemson)

*2017: Alabama (13-1, didn’t make it to the SEC championship game, Sugar Bowl champions, CFP national champions)

2016: Alabama (14-1, SEC champions, Peach Bowl champions, lost the CFP national championship to Clemson)

2015: Ohio State (12-1, didn’t make Big Ten championship game, Fiesta Bowl champions)

2014: Florida State (13-1, ACC champions, lost in the CFP semifinals to Oregon)

2013: Alabama (11-2, didn’t make SEC championship game, lost the Sugar Bowl to Oklahoma)

2012: USC (7-6, didn't make the Pac-12 championship game, lost the Sun Bowl to Georgia Tech)

2011: Oklahoma (10-3, Insight Bowl champions)

2010: Alabama (10-3, didn’t make the SEC championship game, Citrus Bowl champions)

2009: Florida (13-1, lost the SEC championship game to Alabama, Sugar Bowl champions)

2008: Georgia (10-3, didn’t make SEC championship game, Citrus Bowl champions)

2007: USC (11-2, Pac-10 co-champions, Rose Bowl champions)

2006: Ohio State (12-1, Big Ten champions, lost BCS national championship game to Florida)

2005: USC (12-1, Pac-10 champions, lost Rose Bowl/BCS championship game to Texas)

*2004: USC (11-0, Pac-10 champions, BCS national champions)

2003: Oklahoma (12-2, lost the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State, lost the Sugar Bowl/BCS championship game to LSU)

2002: Miami (12-1, Big East champions, lost the Fiesta Bowl/BCS championship game to Ohio State)

2001: Florida (10-2, didn’t make the SEC championship game, Orange Bowl champions)

2000: Nebraska (10-2, didn’t make Big 12 championship game, Alamo Bowl champions)

*1999: Florida State (12-0, ACC champions, BCS national champions)

1998: Ohio State (11-1, Big Ten co-champions, Sugar Bowl champions)

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[Texus]

Good stuff Jeff.  What this data tells me is that Texas has a very high liklihood of winning 10 games and making the CFP.  If you told me right now we'd go 10-2 and make the CFP, I'd take it.  

[Sundancekid]

New prwdiction thread can be “how long does Texas stay #1?”

[Hashtag]

National championship or bust, obviously. 

[SuperDave0805]

12 minutes ago, Sundancekid said:

New prwdiction thread can be “how long does Texas stay #1?”