***

First, there is a desire from new Texas offer and current Auburn DL commit Malik Autry to visit Austin this spring. Autry told me he is going to be making the trip to Texas but there was no date or timeline attached for when that might take place.

The 6-foot-5.5 and 320-pound defensive lineman has been committed to Auburn since February 1, 2023. Any chance of flipping this commitment starts with a visit to campus and building from there. 

Until then, it's just a prayer.

***

Our Gerry Hamilton released the visit dates for 2025 Jasper TE Kiotti Armstrong yesterday which included plans to visit three schools: LSU on March 23, Texas A&M on April 6 and Texas on April 13.

This does not quite lineup with where Texas wants its top offensive targets to arrive, as the April 6 visitors list has become remarkably loaded on that side of the ball. 

I too believe this will recruitment will be a Texas vs. Texas A&M battle when it all comes down to it. However, lately I have heard there is a slight edge in the favor of the Aggies despite the ties to Texas with early enrollee Tyanthony Smith helping the cause here.

Will certainly get a clearer picture following the spring visits and head into the summer months.

The Texas Longhorns once again ripped out the hearts of a moblike Texas Tech fan base Tuesday night. The Longhorns responded from one rough day at Kansas with an 81-69 win at Texas Tech Tuesday night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. 

Texas (18-10, 7-8) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, and is firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night.  

OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to continue to be comfortably in the tourney.

Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
3/2 Oklahoma State 
3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 28)
Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET after the win at Texas Tech. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40.

The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 2-1 vs. Quad 3 and 9-0 vs. Quad 4. 

Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
No. 14 @ Baylor 

Quad 2 game remaining:
No. 40 Oklahoma 

Quad 3 games remaining:
No. 113 Oklahoma State 

T-Rank 
Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings after Tuesday night.

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
Texas checks in at No. 28 after the win at Texas Tech.

What it means for Texas

The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday nights win. The resume continues to be aided by five Quad 1 wins and four Big 12 road wins. Only 14 teams in all of college basketball have more Quad 1 wins than Texas, and one of those is not in a Power 5 conference. 

While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 25 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked in the 17-20 area. Texas' Big 12 schedule will carry a lot of weight when it comes to getting in the tournament, and seeding. 

Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. There currently nine Big 12 teams projected to get in the Big Dance.

Texas and seeding:

Scenario 1: 20-11, 9-9 is likely a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

Scenario 2: 19-12, 8-10 would likely be a 8-9 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. That would mean an 0-3 finish to the regular season, which is highly unlikely. 

Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10 and 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning the last four games (Texas Tech starting the streak), including at Baylor on Monday.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. The Longhorns haven't won three Big 12 games in a row this season. 

Hightower (Texas) High defensive back Kade Phillips has locked in an official visit to Texas. 

The 6-1.5, 180 pound versatile defensive back with an 80 inch wingspan and 10 inch hands told OnTexasFootball he will make an official visit to Texas June 21-23.

Phillips was offered by safeties coach and area recruiter Blake Gideon February 17. 

"The Texas offer meant a lot to me," Phillips told OnTexasFootball last week at Hightower High. "Texas is a big school, big culture and it meant a lot. It felt great. Coach Gideon came to see me multiple times. He came to track practice, came by the field house multiple times just to talk. Texas is going to be up there. Up there." 

Phillips attended Texas Junior day January 20. He has been on campus multiple times in the last year, including a game visit in 2023. 

Texas A&M and LSU remain the competition

Phillips is the younger brother of former Texas A&M linebacker signee Kenneth Phillips, who had his career cut short after a devastating knee injury his senior season. He remains a student at Texas A&M. Kade Phillips was back on campus in College Station January 27 for Junior Day.

"Coach (Mike) Elko just wants everybody to be part of the recruitment. Not just your position coach, but all of the coaches. He wants it to be one big family. They offered me at corner, but like my versatility. Wherever the team needs me is what they said."

Phillips will make his first ever trip to LSU this spring. It's a visit that will be very key in the recruitment.

"I'm in contact with Coach (Corey) Raymond every day. He's just checking in on me, seeing how I'm doing. I just know it's LSU. Big facility, big program. It will be a big visit fore me when I go down there."

Arkansas, Oregon, Baylor and Kansas as schools also making runs right now. 

Phillips plans to commit prior to his senior season after June official visits. 

2027 QB Weston Nielsen has seen his recruitment really pop over the last few weeks.

After starting the final eight games of the regular season, the cat is out of the bag with the CenTex gunslinger. Nielsen received his offer from Oregon on September 24, then received nine offers in the months of January and February.

Texas made two stops by Bastrop during the contact window to evaluate Nielsen as well. The first was Steve Sarkisian on the first day of the contact window, January 12, and then the second was a solo visit from AJ Milwee two weeks later.

Milwee was able to watch the 2027 quarterback throw in workouts as well.

We know the Texas staff is rather peculiar when it comes to quarterback recruiting. Sarkisian is not loose with quarterback offers regardless of the talent crop, nor on-roster depth. Texas will have the shortest trek of any major D1 program to keep tabs on the 6-foot-3 quarterback during his development.

The Bastrop staff is expecting the Longhorn staff to return to campus again to watch Nielsen throw during the spring. Should be interesting to follow with the local kid.

Jasper (Texas) High tight end Kiotti Armstrong has locked in a trio of spring visits, and one of those is to the Texas Longhorns. 

Armstrong, 6-5 and 250 pounds, will make an unofficial visit to Texas April 13. That will be the last of three visits currently scheduled. 

The Southeast Texas native will begin his spring unofficial visits with a trip to LSU March 23. He will follow that with a visit to Texas A&M April6. The Aggies are also working to get Armstrong on campus March 30. 

Armstrong attended Texas Junior Day January 20, and spent about 20 minutes talking with head coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian also stopped by Jasper High in January.

The former high school teammate of Texas freshman linebacker Tyanthony Smith made a pair of visits to Texas A&M prior to the quiet period. 

Armstrong caught 26 passes for 268 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. 

Well, hindsight is 20/20 as they say.

To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into consideration roster attrition.

2011 (21 signees/3 NFL players) - RB, Malcolm Brown; DB, Quandre Diggs; DB, Mykkele Thompson

Evaluation Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who made the NFL divided by number of signees)

Hit Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who finished their careers at Texas and made the NFL divided by number of signees)

Notes: The demise of Mack Brown can be directly tied to his final five recruiting classes. Both the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes also had just three players make the NFL. Brown, at the time, was truly selecting the players he and his staff wanted. They did not do a good job overall. 

2012 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - DT, Malcom Brown; OL, Donald Hawkins; DT, Hassan Ridgeway; CB, Duke Thomas; DB, Adrian Colbert (transfer out); WR, Marcus Johnson

Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.42%

Hit Rate: 5/28 = 17.86%

Notes: Better numbers made the league here but as a percentage it was still way too slight. Adrian Colbert became one of only two Mack Brown transfers who eventually made the NFL from elsewhere (JaMarcus Webb was the other).

2013 (15 signees/4 NFL players) - OL, Kent Perkins; OL, Desmond Harrison (transfer out); TE, Geoff Swaim; ATH, Montrel Meander (transfer out)

Evaluation Rate: 4/15 = 26.67%

Hit Rate: 2/15 = 13.33%

2014 (23 signees/4 NFL players) - DE, Derick Roberson (transfer out); DT, Poona Ford; TE, Andrew Beck; RB, D'Onta Foreman

Evaluation Rate: 4/23 = 17.39%

Hit Rate: 3/23 = 13.04%

Notes: Transition class from Mack Brown to Charlie Strong. Only one of Strong's recruits from the month of January ended up being an NFL player - Poona Ford.

2015 (27 signees/8 NFL players) - LB, Malik Jefferson; DB, Holton Hill; DB, Kris Boyd; DB, DeShon Elliott; DL, Charles Omenihu; OL, Connor Williams; DB, PJ Locke; P, Michael Dickson

Evaluation Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%

Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%

Notes: This was the best Texas class in nearly a decade and showed that Charlie Strong not only could recruit but his staff also ultimately had an eye for talent; Strong immediately doubled the Hit Rate of any of the previous eight years.

2016 (28 signees/7 NFL players) - WR, Devin Duvernay, DB, Brandon Jones; DT, Jordan Elliott (transfer out); WR, Collin Johnson; DL, Malcom Roach; QB, Shane Buechele (transfer out); WR, LJ Humphrey

Evaluation Rate: 7/28 = 25%

Hit Rate = 5/28 = 17.86%

Notes: Yet again, Strong showed a relatively strong eye for talent. But his poor on-field performance hurt his recruiting some. 

2017 (18 signees/4 NFL players) - QB, Sam Ehlinger; DL, TaQuon Graham; OL, Sam Cosmi; DB, Josh Thompson

Evaluation Rate: 4/18 22.22%

Hit Rate: 4/18 22.22%

Notes: Transition Class from Strong to Tom Herman. Like Strong, Herman only added one new signee that would eventually become an NFL player - Sam Cosmi.

2018 (27 signees/11 NFL players) - DB, Caden Sterns; LB, DeMarvion Overshown; DT, Keondre Coburn; DL, Moro Ojomo; DE, Joe Ossai; CB, D'Shawn Jamison; RB, Keontay Ingram (transfer out); OL, Christian Jones; K, Cameron Dicker; DB, Jalen Green (transfer out); QB Cameron Rising (transfer out) (Players in italics have yet to be selected in NFL draft and make an NFL team)

Evaluation Rate: 11/27 = 40.74%

Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%

Notes: This is the class that should have helped put Tom Herman over the top. Despite recruiting rankings to the contrary, he and his staff simply couldn't put two good classes together back-to-back.

2019 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - WR, Bru McCoy (transfer out); WR, Jordan Whittington; S, Tyler Owens (transfer out); RB, Roschon Johnson; TE, Jared Wiley (transfer out); DT, T'Vondre Sweat

Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.43%

Hit Rate: 3/28 = 10.71%

Notes: Look at the lowest Hit Rate of the decade. Even Mack Brown's last classes didn't miss on this many. This is part of the reason why Steve Sarkisian was saddled early with a lack of NFL talent. Attrition clearly played a role here but so did evaluation.

2020 (22 signees/8 NFL players) - RB, Bijan Robinson; DL, Alfred Collins; ATH, Ja'Quinden Jackson (transfer out); OL, Jake Majors; DB, Jahdae Barron; LB, Jaylan Ford; DB Brenden Schooler; WR Tarik Black

Evaluation Rate: 8/22 =36.36%

Hit Rate: 7/22 = 25.93%

Notes: A solid class. The evaluation and hit rate are buoyed by the additions of Schooler and Black as transfers and Black never really did much as a Longhorn.

**

NFL Hit Rates of elite programs should average in the 25-35% range, so that's what Texas should focus on achieving. Yet the Horns matched or surpassed that figure just three times in 10 years. And the Horns barely averaged 25% from just an "Evaluation Rate", which doesn't take into account attrition/transfers.

Overall, poor depth and lack of top-end talent riddled Texas for much of the 2010s.

So did recruiting inconsistency. Poor years for Strong in 2016 and Herman in 2019 perhaps showed that neither could sustain success at Texas.

10-year average Evaluation Rate: 25.56%

10-year average Hit Rate: 19.45%

**

A quick look into the 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes thus far.

First, like his predecessors, Sark added at least one NFL player in his first month on the job in the 2021 class - Xavier Worthy. However, Sark also added Keilan Robinson who has a chance at the NFL as well. (Note to athletic administrators who make coaching changes: adding NFL players late in the process is just unlikely no matter who the coach is.)

As for the 2022 class, Sark's group looks on par if not better than both Herman's and Strong's second classes, which attracted eight and 11 NFL players, respectively.

The third class is where Sark diverges from Herman and Strong. While both Strong and Herman spiraled downward with third class, Sark is drastically different.

His third recruiting class was nothing short of outstanding. In fact, early returns suggest his 2023 recruiting class will be Sark's best yet.

Made the quick drive over to Bastrop to catch a workout this morning. There is plenty of talent coming up that I will get into later in the week, but 2026 defensive lineman Tiki Hola is the prize at the moment in Texas circles.

Hola visited Texas during the January 20 Junior Day, and while Texas had yet to make a hiring at the DL spot, Hola spent a lot of time with Coach Johnny Nansen and came away from the afternoon with rave reviews.

"I loved it," Hola said of his time on campus. "I got to meet with Coach Sark and talk to him for a little bit. I got to know him a little bit and he got to know me a little bit. Plus the basketball game, it was just a fun day in general."

The 6-foot-3 and 280-pound defensive lineman has become one of the jewels in the Austin area for the 2026 cycle and Texas is going to be a player here. Coach Sarkisian stopped by in the winter to catch a workout and is expected to return in the spring – most likely with Coach Kenny Baker.

"(Coach Sarkisian) is a great coach," Hola said. "But he is more than coach, he is a great person in general. He tries to genuinely get to know you and get a good conversation out of you."

Coach Baker had not yet been hired when Hola visited Austin, but the big takeaway from the trip was actually the time he spent with coach Johnny Nansen. Hola was originally born in California before moving to Bastrop at a young age, plus he is cousins with former Alabama LB Henry To'oto'o.

Texas has been a player here for a while. The initial offer came last June following a camp during the summer. 

Since January, Auburn, Miami, Nebraska, Texas A&M and USC have all gotten involved. 

Recruiting is really beginning to take off for Hola, yet the spring visit schedule is completely wide open. He mentioned a possible return to Austin for a spring practice or two, but has nothing locked in for Texas or anyone else for the time being.

This was my first time watching Hola in workouts and I was thoroughly impressed. For someone as big as he is at that age, there is so much fluidity in movements and plenty of flexibility. 

Hola played over the ball straight up last year, though you can expect many coaches to recruit him as a future 3-tech or 4i, which is more right over the guard/inside the tackle. One of the better interior defensive linemen in the state and only a 35-minute drive from campus.

Dallas, Texas - One of the top defensive targets on the board for the Texas Longhorns in the 2025 cycle is Dallas (Texas) Skyline High linebacker Elijah "Bo" Barnes. 

Barnes, 6-2.5 and nearing 230 pounds, was offered by Texas May 10, 2023. Since that time, the DFW area star has been on campus multiple times with the last visit January 20 for Junior Day. 

OnTexasFootball took in Skyline High track practice Monday and caught up with Barnes after the workout. 

"Texas is one of those top schools for me," Barnes told OnTexasFootball Monday. "They will be in my top 10, I will say that. Texas has been recruiting me hard for the last year and a half. Texas is one of those up and coming schools. I feel like they will go for a National Championship run again this year coming up. Texas is a great school in general. Some of my coaches went through Texas, you know. They tell me great things."

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian had a call with Barnes last night around 6:30 p.m. The messages heading into that call have been about the person, player and fit in the Longhorns' defense. 

"He just says he wants me. And things like that. They see me as a great fit in their defense. A leader in their defense. A vocal leader in their defense. He was telling me stuff like that. And that I'm a great guy, a great athlete and the sky's the limit."

New Co-DC and linebackers coach Johnny Nansen has made a strong impression early in just a few conversations. 

"Coach (Johnny) Nansen, I love Coach Nansen. He's a great guy in general. Down to earth. He knows the game of football. And I do feel like if I go to Texas, he can pour a lot into me. In an NFL type play style. He can teach me formation, down and distance and the personnel's and stuff like that."

Barnes believes Texas is ready for the move to the SEC, and in part because of the culture created by Sarkisian and staff. 

"It's made a big jump (with prospects). How they did this year. I know they are going to excel this coming season. Texas is going to be fine. They have a lot of great athletes that committed and signed that are there right now. I feel like Texas is one of those schools to be talked about 20 years from now. A great coaching staff they have, a great team they have and a great brotherhood they have there. A great bond. Just to be around everybody there."

Barnes runs on the 4x100 and 4x200 meter relay teams for the Raiders. He will also run the open 100 meters this spring with a goal of 11.1, which would be ultra impressive at 225-230 pounds. 

Cedar Hill, Texas - The Cedar Hill Longhorns have one of the true recruiting rarities. Junior's Isaiah Coleman (6-1.5, 275), Devin Coleman (6-4.5, 320) and Jordan Coleman (6-5, 362) are triplets. 

And all three have division one offers with Isaiah Coleman having been offered by UTSA and Texas Tech. 

Jordan Coleman was offered by Texas June 11, 2023 after a stellar camp performance. And Devin Coleman was offered by the Longhorns February 19, 2024 after offensive line coach Kyle Flood made an in person evaluation in January. 

On Monday, OnTexasFootball stopped by Cedar Hill High to catch up with a the "large humans", which includes the most recent Texas offensive line offer.

For Devin Coleman, the offer was very meaningful. 

"It meant a lot," Devin Coleman told OnTexasFootball. "Because my brother, Jordan, already has a Texas offer. I've been telling him I want Texas, I want Texas. He was telling me to be patient and they are going to come. Coach (Kyle) Flood told me to be patient. When it came, I was real excited. Jordan had been in my ear saying it was going to come, be patient and keep working hard." 

Coleman picked up nine offers since January. Due in large part to playing a lot of snaps on the offensive line in 2023, which changed the trajectory of his recruitment. That 2024 offer list includes Texas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Colorado, Duke, Baylor and SMU. He received summer offers from Oklahoma and Houston.  

Coleman attended Texas Junior Day January 20, and plans to get back this spring. 

"I want to go to Ole Miss, Texas, Oklahoma, go out to Texas Tech. That's the plan." 

Jordan Coleman on Texas

"Large human" Jordan Coleman has seen his recruitment take off since the summer of 2023. He enters the spring with 17 offers, including six SEC programs. January and February have been fruitful in particular, adding seven offers. 

"The recruiting process is going good," Coleman told OTF Monday. "I just racked up a couple of offers from Ole Miss, Duke, Mississippi State and a whole bunch of places. I'm just planning some official visits and stuff like that."

While Coleman is yet to lock in dates for the spring or June official visits, he knows a few places he wants to see in person.

"I know we are going to go to Baylor, Texas, OU and we want to go to Colorado and Ole Miss. And I want to go to Tennessee."

Coleman has visited Texas on a trio of occasions, starting with the day he was offered. 

"The first time I went to Texas was at the camp (June 11, 2023). We had went in the indoor and outdoors, and I went undefeated (1 on 1 reps). I worked at guard and tackle, and I went undefeated. I talked to Coach (Flood),and he was telling that I was doing good in rills. And that's when he gave me the offer."

It's safe to say the Longhorns are in a good position headed into the spring. 

"I love Texas. Texas, Hook'em man. Coach Hutch (Marcus Hutchins) is always talking about Texas. He shines a good light on Texas, and I see what he's talking about." 

Coleman could play either tackle or guard at the next level with guard projecting the highest upside. 

Eleven Longhorns are going to Indianapolis where on-field drills will get started on Thursday. 

But before they get started, be sure to check out this week's Talkin' Ball with Rod and I as we talk where the Texas Draft hopefuls can improve their stock and a return down Memory Lane – Indy style for Rod with some stories from his time at the NFL Combine.