OTF Community Talks College Football, Makes Predictions and before the season starts.

[Jerky]

Fall camp starting. Let's talk football.

The Texas rush defense improved tremendously over the past 3 seasons. Believe our rush D improving each year helped us go from 5-7 to 8-5 to 12-2. Ewers/OL/WRs improvements in yr 3 was also necessary to help us go from 8-5 to 12-2. 

 

TX RUSHING DEFENSE PAST 3 SEASONS

W-L,   Rushing Yards Per Game Allowed (Ranking), Yards Per Rush Allowed (Ranking)

5-7,   202.8 rushing yds/g (#111), 5.2 yds/r (#113 tied with 3 teams)

8-5,   125.7 rushing yds/g (#30), 3.5 yds/r (#18 tied with 6 teams)

12-2,   82.6 rushing yds/g (#3), 2.9 yds/r (#5)

?-?,    ? rushing yds/g (#?), ? yds/r (#?)

Only Penn St and UCLA had slightly better rush D stats than TX last season. Michigan was right behind us at 90.1 yds/g and 3 yds/r. The best rush Ds I saw last year were TX, Penn St, Michigan, GA and Bama. Don't believe Texas will be in the top 3-5 again. How good do we need to be to accomplish our goals?

On D, Texas lost 4 starters to the NFL - Sweat, Murphy, Ford and Watts. We also lost some defensive contributors including 2 more starters. How well do we replace these 6 starters?  We certainly will miss Murphy and Sweat vs the run. It is rare to have a Sweat (2nd rd NFL) or Murphy (1st rd NFL). Rarer still to have both at their college peak and lose both in the same year. Ford, Watts and Brooks may not be replaced as well as we hope vs the run.

The SEC will be a tougher challenge than the Big 12.

Top 6 SEC Rush Ds:  3.3 yds/r KY, TN and A&M (tied with 5 teams for #12), 3.7 yds/r GA and Bama (tied with 7 teams for #27) and 3.9 yds/r MSSt (tied with 8 teams for #38)

Top 6 SEC Rush Ds:  110.3 yds/g A&M (#13), 112.2 yds/g GA (#16), 114.8 yds/g KY (#19), 116.6 yds/g TN (#20), 124.8 yds/g Bama (#31) and 129.1 yds/g MO (#34)

 

2023 FEI Ratings for CFP

Michigan was #5 OFEI, #1 DFEI and #31 SFEI.

Washington was #4 OFEI, #25 DFEI and #10 SFEI.

Texas was #19 OFEI, #6 DFEI and #3 SFEI.

Bama was #20 OFEI, #8 DFEI and #2 SFEI. 

Washington 4.7 yds/r (tied for #92) and 148.3 yds/g (#49). Only a weak PAC12 and incredible offense allowed WA squeek by in close games to go undefeated and make the CFP with lackluster D. Would not happen in the SEC in most years.

2023 FEI Ratings
2023 Team Ratings :: FEI :: OFEI :: DFEI :: SFEI :: PVE :: PPD :: AYP :: YPP :: DSR :: FPV

 

Opponent-Adjusted Efficiency													Strength of Schedule							Strength of Record
Rk	Team	Rec	FBS	FEI		OFEI	Rk	DFEI	Rk	SFEI	Rk		ELS	Rk	GLS	Rk	ALS	Rk		EWD	Rk	GWD	Rk	AWD	Rk
1	Oregon	12-2	11-2	1.69		1.13	1	.56	11	.00	69		1.56	27	4.78	11	8.79	5		-.44	11	2.78	8	6.79	7
2	Michigan	15-0	15-0	1.55		.65	5	.89	1	.05	31		1.87	18	4.69	15	8.80	4		1.87	2	4.69	2	8.80	2
3	Georgia	13-1	12-1	1.44		.85	3	.52	13	.10	8		1.48	31	4.71	14	8.53	13		.48	4	3.71	4	7.53	3
4	Ohio State	11-2	10-2	1.21		.37	14	.83	2	.04	38		2.01	9	4.52	21	7.77	27		.01	7	2.52	10	5.77	10
5	Washington	14-1	14-1	1.09		.65	4	.39	25	.09	10		3.64	1	7.00	1	10.52	1		2.64	1	6.00	1	9.52	1
6	Notre Dame	10-3	9-3	1.07		.31	17	.67	5	.12	4		1.33	39	3.96	40	7.27	51		-1.67	15	.96	15	4.27	18
7	Texas	12-2	12-2	1.07		.30	19	.66	6	.12	3		1.77	22	5.12	5	9.44	2		-.23	10	3.12	6	7.44	4
8	Penn State	10-3	9-3	1.04		.31	18	.64	7	.08	12		1.66	24	4.03	37	7.36	46		-1.34	12	1.03	13	4.36	17
9	Alabama	12-2	11-2	1.04		.29	20	.63	8	.13	2		2.77	2	6.03	2	9.39	3		.77	3	4.03	3	7.39	5
10	Kansas State	9-4	8-4	.97		.47	10	.46	16	.03	49		1.20	46	4.32	26	8.59	11		-2.80	28	.32	18	4.59	16
11	Missouri	11-2	10-2	.94		.34	16	.52	14	.06	27		2.10	7	4.96	9	8.31	16		.10	6	2.96	7	6.31	8
12	LSU	10-3	9-3	.93		1.09	2	-.14	101	.00	75		1.42	35	4.38	24	8.08	20		-1.58	13	1.38	11	5.08	12

 

Ewers made a big improvement from year 1 to year 2.

W-L, QBR, completion %

8-5, 132.6, 58%

12-2, 158.6, 69%

?-?, ? QBR,  ??%

 

My too early predictions for this season...

What is our rushing yards per game allowed? Where might that rank?

Optimistically guessing around 135 yds/g (around #40).

What is our yards per rush allowed? Where might that rank?

Optimistically guessing around 3.8 yds/r (around #35)

What will our ranking be in OFEI, DFEI and SFEI?

Optimistically guessing around #9 OFEI, #16 DFEI and #6 SFEI. 

What is Ewers QBR and completion %?

Guessing around 172 QBR and 73% completions. Hopefully a 5 to 1 or greater TD to INT ratio. Expect he will be better in 2 min offense with the headset. Need better redzone offense collectively. Believe Ewers will do his part in the redzone. If so, that would all add up to elite and give us a good chance to overcome most in game challenges if our D struggled.

What is our W-L regular season record?

If we are a top 12 team as expected, Texas should win comfortably vs CO ST, UTSA, ULM, MS ST and @Vandy. That would be 5 wins. Our next 3 toughest games on paper are likely FL, @Piggy and KY. Won't be easy but we should be 3-0 here. Piggy isn't expected to be that good but it isa rival on the road so it could be tougher than the stats suggest. We have two weeks to prepare before hosting talented Florida and they play GA the week before, ouch. I'm more concerned with a scrappy KY having an off week and a cream puff before they play us while we play them in between our two old SWC rivals. Could be 2-1 here but I'm guessing 3-0 because KY was beaten badly by the better SEC teams last year, Georgia, Bama and MO. Our 4 toughest games on paper seem to be @Michigan, OUsux, UGA and @Gomers. Guessing we go 2-2 here but it could just as easily be 1-3 or 3-1. I predict Texas is 10-2 in the regular season. 9-3 or 11-1 seems equally plausible if things don't go our way in 3 games or we play consistently well throughout the season. 8-4 and 12-0 are mathmatically possible but both seem less likely with our talent and based on our difficult schedule including UGA, OU and 2 road games vs Michigan and Ags. If we struggle with our D more than I predict, we likely go 9-3 unless our offense is almost unstoppable which is not out of the question. We should be a stronger team by the end of the year so I am predicting at least 1 playoff win. 

Does TX make a SEC-CG Appearance? TX wins the SEC-CG?

Guessing we miss SEC-CG (GA v Ole Miss - They have a more manageable schedule to get to 11-1). Believe UGA wins the SEC-CG.

CFP? Top 8? Top 4? NC?

SEC teams may need to go 10-2 to get in the 12 team CFP this season. Guessing Texas ends up around Top 4-8 depending on the CFP matchups.

Before predicting anything above a top 4 finish, I want to see the expected improvement in Ewers from year 2 to 3 and better than expected effectiveness of rush D and secondary coverage. I believe I know what we have at OL, RB, WR, TE, pass rush and special teams. I also want to see at least half a dozen potential CFP teams play at least 1 quality opponent. I don't know our competition as well as I know Texas. I pencil in UGA, OH St and Oregon ahead of us but Oregon isn't a clear cut #3. OH St may not be good enough at QB. OH St and Oregon play each other which should drop one out of the top 3 at least temporarily. I have GA as the clear #1. Several teams could rise up to the top 2-8. Great year to have a 12 team CFP.

My 12 CFP teams? What are yours?

My CFP teams in no particular order GA, Ole Miss, TX, Bama, MO, OH St, Penn St, Michigan, Oregon, Utah, ND and FSU. I see maybe another 8 teams that could end up in the CFP discussion.

MY GENERAL TX THOUGHTS? 

TLDR - We're really good but I don't know if we are good enough to be the best or even the top 4.

Ewers makes another big jump in QBR.  Expecting the OL to get better push after another year of physical development. If not, we did something wrong this summer. While I 100% get Conner starting at LG because of his experience and proven pass protection, I am not sure if Conner will be one of our best 5 OL by year end unless he is noticeably better in run blocking than last year. We have some BIG HUMANS that could be coming on in our OL room. Expecting more explosive plays on offense because of Ewers improvement, even better OL pass protection, right side run blocking, speed at all 3 WR positions along with a rotation to keep 'em fresh and competing, better speed at TE with Niblack and another year of RB development from our trio of Blue, Baxter and Wisner. Expecting more edge rushers, fresher edge rushers including a duo of twitchy edge rushers, more QB pressures, more QB hits, more sacks and more tipped balls by IDL as QBs are forced to step up. Edge is likely our best position room on D. But it wont be easy vs SEC. Expecting difficulty stopping the better running teams with a good dual threat QB because our edges must stay home and our IDL is questionable to some degree. We even struggled last year with dual threat QBs. We stay fresher at IDL and have more competition so our run D isn't as bad as many feared after the NFL draft but we still have a statistical drop in run D effectiveness. LB overall will be improved because of another year of development from Hill, Gbenda, Blackwell, Lefau and Gullette while adding Moore in situations. If we don't, TX will struggle more at stopping the run than I expect. Expecting Holmes and Cole to struggle with physicality vs Michigan and the better SEC teams. Not expecting Roberson or Black to start at CB in game 1 but they might get a chance to play more snaps at some point. Need Muhammad, Barron and Guilbeau to stay healthy in case Barron needs to play some CB. Expecting better safety play than last year with development from Williams and the addition of Mukuba. Taaffe providing savvy S depth and helping McDonald and/or Filsaime. Pass D struggled at critical moments too often last year. Total passing yards per game were bad. But it wasn't as bad as some believe when you consider our D ranked #41 in average QB passer rating and #47 passing efficiency defense. I believe we still struggle but not as much and not for 255 yards per game. I like our deep roster and special teams talent. Believe Feris Jr or Kern Fr can be a good punter but I'm not expecting us to punt often. Burt Auburn is on pace to break records. We have multiple possible return guys (Bolden, Golden, Blue, Bond, Cook, Moore, Wisner, etc), excited to see how we do with Bolden at PR and Golden and maybe Blue or a WR at KR. Our coverage units should be fast and physical. Gunners are more of an unknown but we have several candidates including Wisner, Roberson and D Moore. I really like our standouts, starters and quality depth. Looking forward to this season.  Hopefully Texas enjoys a SEC-C and CFP appearance that ends better than last year.

 

 

Some early season matchups.

Week 0

• College Football Classic: Georgia Tech vs. Florida St (Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland) | Saturday, Aug. 24 | 11 a.m. | ESPN 

Week 1

• Aflac Kickoff Game: Clemson vs. Georgia (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | Saturday, Aug. 31 | 11 a.m. | ABC 
• Penn State at West Virginia | Saturday, Aug. 31 | 11 a.m. | FOX
• Colorado St at Texas 2:30 p.m. | ESPN 
• Miami (Fla.) at Florida | Saturday, Aug. 31 | 2:30 p.m. | ABC
• Notre Dame at Texas A&M | Saturday, Aug. 31 | 6:30 p.m. | ABC
• Vegas Kickoff Classic: LSU vs. Southern California (Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada) | Sunday, Sept. 1 | 6:30 p.m.  | ABC

Week 2

• Texas at Michigan | Saturday, Sept. 7 | 11 a.m.  | FOX
• Arkansas at Oklahoma State | Saturday, Sept. 7 | 11 a.m. | ABC
• Duke's Mayo Classic: NC State vs Tennessee (Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina) | Saturday, Sept. 7 | 6:30 p.m. | ABC
• Boise State at Oregon | Saturday, Sept. 7 | 9 p.m. | Peacock

Week 3

• Alabama at Wisconsin | Saturday, Sept. 14 | 11 a.m. | FOX
• Oregon at Oregon State | Saturday, Sept. 14 | 2:30 p.m. | FOX
• Texas A&M at Florida | Saturday, Sept. 14 | 2:30 p.m. | ABC
• UTSA at Texas 6 p.m. | ESPN 

Week 4

• TN at OU | Saturday, Sept. 21 | TBD  
• USC at Michigan | Saturday, Sept. 21 | 2:30 p.m. | CBS
• ULM at Texas | Saturday, Sept. 21 | 7 p.m. | SECN+ ESPN+ 

 

SEC NON-CONFERENCE - Weakest to Strongest by Athlon

16. Missouri Tigers

• Aug. 29 — vs. Murray State (FCS)
• Sept. 7 — vs. Buffalo
• Sept. 14 — vs. Boston College
• Oct. 12 — at UMass 

15. Auburn Tigers

• Aug. 31 — vs. Alabama A&M (FCS)
• Sept. 7 — vs. Cal
• Sept. 14 — vs. New Mexico
• Nov. 16 — vs. Louisiana-Monroe 

14. Arkansas Razorbacks

• Aug. 29 — vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (FCS, in Little Rock)
• Sept. 7 — at Oklahoma State
• Sept. 14 — vs. UAB
• Nov. 23 — vs. Louisiana Tech

13. Oklahoma Sooners

• Aug. 30 — vs. Temple
• Sept. 7 — vs. Houston
• Sept. 14 — vs. Tulane
• Nov. 2 — vs. Maine (FCS)

12. Vanderbilt Commodores

• Aug. 31 — vs. Virginia Tech
• Sept. 7 — vs. Alcorn State (FCS)
• Sept. 14 — at Georgia State
• Oct. 19 — vs. Ball State

11. Tennessee Volunteers

• Aug. 31 — vs. Chattanooga (FCS)
• Sept. 7 — vs. NC State (in Charlotte)
• Sept. 14 — vs. Kent State
• Nov. 23 — vs. UTEP

10. Ole Miss Rebels

• Aug. 31 — vs. Furman (FCS)
• Sept. 7 — vs. Middle Tennessee 
• Sept. 14 — at Wake Forest
• Sept. 21 — vs. Georgia Southern

9. Mississippi State Bulldogs

• Aug. 31 — vs. Eastern Kentucky (FCS)
• Sept. 7 — at Arizona State
• Sept. 14 — vs. Toledo
• Nov. 2 — vs. UMass

8. South Carolina Gamecocks

• Aug. 31 — vs. Old Dominion
• Sept. 21 — vs. Akron
• Nov. 23 — vs. Wofford (FCS)
• Nov. 30 — at Clemson

7. Kentucky Wildcats

• Aug. 31 — vs. Southern Miss
• Sept. 21 — vs. Ohio
• Nov. 16 — vs. Murray State (FCS)
• Nov. 30 — vs. Louisville

6. Texas A&M Aggies

• Aug. 31 — vs. Notre Dame
• Sept. 7 — vs. McNeese (FCS)
• Sept. 21 — vs. Bowling Green
• Nov. 16 — vs. New Mexico State

5. Georgia Bulldogs

• Aug. 31 — vs. Clemson (in Atlanta)
• Sept. 7 — vs. Tennessee Tech (FCS)
• Nov. 23 — vs. UMass
• Nov. 30 – vs. Georgia Tech

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

• Aug. 31 — vs. Western Kentucky
• Sept. 7 — vs. USF
• Sept. 14 — at Wisconsin
• Nov. 16 — vs. Mercer (FCS)

3. LSU Tigers

• Sept. 1 — vs. USC (in Las Vegas)
• Sept. 7 — vs. Nicholls (FCS)
• Sept. 21 — vs. UCLA
• Sept. 28 — vs. South Alabama

2. Texas Longhorns

• Aug. 31 — vs. Colorado State
• Sept. 7 — at Michigan
• Sept. 14 — vs. UTSA
• Sept. 21 — vs. Louisiana-Monroe

1. Florida Gators

• Aug. 31 — vs. Miami (Fla.)
• Sept. 7 — vs. Samford (FCS)
• Oct. 5 — vs. UCF
• Nov. 30 — at Florida State

 

 

I took my shots.

Take your shots. Or tell me about my bad takes. Or tell us what's on your mind regarding this college football season.