Moderators Blake Munroe Posted 4 hours ago Moderators Posted 4 hours ago This morning we were discussing the betting lines for the Horns opponents in 2025. Not many early lines are out, so I had the bright idea to get AI involved. Here is the result: Creating betting lines for the Texas Longhorns' 2025 football schedule involves analyzing available data, including team performance, returning players, coaching trends, opponent strength, and early sentiment from sources like sportsbooks, news articles, and fan predictions. Below, Iâll outline the process, provide context for the Longhornsâ 2025 outlook, and generate hypothetical betting lines (spreads and over/under totals) for each game based on the schedule and available insights. Since specific 2025 game-by-game betting lines are not fully available in the provided data, these lines are informed projections based on historical performance, roster changes, and early analyst predictions. Context for Texas Longhorns in 2025  2024 Performance: Texas finished 12-2, won the SEC Championship, and reached the College Football Playoff semifinals, losing to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. They were a top-four team nationally, showcasing a potent offense and stout defense.  Key Players: Arch Manning, a highly touted quarterback, takes over as QB1 following Quinn Ewersâ departure to the NFL. Manning is a +200 favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and a top Heisman contender. The offensive line, bolstered by the âpancake-themedâ NIL movement, returns significant talent to protect Manning, though some key linemen and pass-catchers are gone. Defensively, players like EDGE Trey Moore and others return, maintaining strength.  Recruiting: Texas boasts the No. 1-rated 2025 recruiting class, adding depth and talent across positions.  Coaching: Steve Sarkisian has revitalized the program, with back-to-back 12-2 seasons and a reputation for explosive offenses. His system is expected to mesh well with Manningâs mobility and decision-making.  Schedule Overview: The 2025 schedule includes a marquee opener at Ohio State, rivalry games against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and a tough road trip to Georgia. However, only two of eight SEC opponents had winning SEC records in 2024, suggesting a relatively manageable conference slate.  Betting Sentiment: Texas is a co-favorite with Ohio State and Oregon to win the 2025-26 National Championship at +650 odds, reflecting high expectations. Analysts predict an 11-1 record and a potential national title. Methodology for Betting Lines  Spread: The point spread reflects the expected margin of victory, based on Texasâ talent, opponent strength, home/away dynamics, and historical performance against similar teams. Iâll use 2024 results, opponent projections, and confidence levels from sources like Longhorns Wire.  Over/Under (O/U): The total points line is based on Texasâ 2024 offensive output (explosive but with red-zone issues at 63.8% touchdown rate), defensive strength, and opponent tendencies. Iâll assume Texasâ offense improves with Manningâs mobility but faces challenges replacing departed receivers.  Data Sources: Iâll draw from the provided web results (e.g., 2024 performance, schedule analysis, recruiting rankings), X posts (fan predictions, early spreads), and general trends in college football betting. Where data is sparse (e.g., opponent 2025 rosters), Iâll use 2024 performance and coaching stability as proxies.  Assumptions: Neutral-site games (e.g., Oklahoma) are treated as balanced venues. Home-field advantage is worth ~3 points. Texasâ talent and coaching give them an edge in most matchups, but tough road games (Ohio State, Georgia) temper expectations. 2025 Texas Longhorns Schedule and Betting Lines  Below is the schedule, as confirmed by sources, with hypothetical betting lines for each game.  Week 1: Aug. 30 â at Ohio State Buckeyes Context: A rematch of the 2024 CFP semifinal, where Ohio State won. The Buckeyes are defending champions but lose key players, while Texas starts the Manning era. Ohio Stateâs home advantage and title pedigree make this a toss-up. Early fan predictions favor Texas 20-17. Spread: Ohio State -2.5 (Texas +2.5) Over/Under: 51.5 Rationale: Ohio Stateâs home edge and defensive depth justify a slight favorite status, but Texasâ talent keeps it close. The O/U reflects a defensive battle, as both teams adjust to new personnel.  Week 2: Sept. 6 â vs. San Jose State Spartans Context: San Jose State is a Group of Five team, far outmatched by Texasâ talent. Texas dominated similar non-conference foes in 2024 (e.g., 56-7 vs. UTSA). Fans predict a 56-0 rout. Spread: Texas -35.5 Over/Under: 59.5 Rationale: Texas is expected to dominate at home, with a massive talent gap. The high spread reflects blowout potential, and the O/U accounts for Texas piling up points.  Week 3: Sept. 13 â vs. UTEP Miners Context: UTEP is another overmatched opponent, with Texas projected to win big (fan prediction: 45-3). Texasâ depth allows them to rest starters early. Spread: Texas -38.5 Over/Under: 57.5 Rationale: Similar to the San Jose State game, Texas should cruise. The slightly lower O/U reflects UTEPâs likely conservative offense.  Week 4: Sept. 20 â BYE No game.  Week 5: Sept. 27 â vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats Context: Another Group of Five opponent, Sam Houston State is outclassed. Fans predict a 66-0 blowout, reflecting Texasâ dominance in non-conference home games. Spread: Texas -40.5 Over/Under: 61.5 Rationale: Texasâ explosive offense and depth lead to a lopsided score. The high spread and O/U reflect a potential shutout.  Week 6: Oct. 4 â at Florida Gators Context: Florida struggled in 2024, and Texas is favored to win comfortably (fan prediction: 35-17). Floridaâs home crowd adds some challenge, but Texasâ talent should prevail. Spread: Texas -13.5 Over/Under: 54.5 Rationale: Texasâ superior roster justifies a double-digit spread, but Floridaâs home advantage keeps it from being a blowout. The O/U reflects a moderate-scoring game.  Week 7: Oct. 11 â vs. Oklahoma Sooners (in Dallas, Neutral Site) Context: The Red River Rivalry saw Texas dominate Oklahoma 34-3 in 2024. Oklahoma has a new QB (John Mateer), but Texas remains favored (fan prediction: 42-10). Early 2024 spreads had Texas -8.5. Spread: Texas -9.5 Over/Under: 52.5 Rationale: Texasâ talent gap and 2024 dominance support a near-double-digit spread. The O/U reflects Texasâ offense overpowering Oklahomaâs rebuilding defense.  Week 8: Oct. 18 â at Kentucky Wildcats Context: Kentucky had a down 2024 season, and Texas is expected to win easily (fan prediction: 28-13). The road environment adds some difficulty, but Texasâ depth prevails. Spread: Texas -14.5 Over/Under: 50.5 Rationale: Texasâ talent makes them a clear favorite, but Kentuckyâs physicality keeps the spread moderate. The O/U reflects a controlled game.  Week 9: Oct. 25 â at Mississippi State Bulldogs Context: Mississippi State was among the SECâs weakest teams in 2024, and Texas won comfortably last year. Fans predict a 42-0 rout, reflecting the talent disparity. Spread: Texas -21.5 Over/Under: 55.5 Rationale: Texas should dominate on the road, with a large spread reflecting Mississippi Stateâs struggles. The O/U assumes Texas scores heavily.  Week 10: Nov. 1 â vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Context: Vanderbilt was competitive in 2024 but upset-prone. Texas escaped with a 27-24 win last year and is favored at home (fan prediction: 24-17; confidence level: 89%). Spread: Texas -12.5 Over/Under: 53.5 Rationale: Texasâ home advantage and talent edge justify a double-digit spread, but Vanderbiltâs grit keeps it closer. The O/U reflects a balanced game.  Week 11: Nov. 8 â BYE No game.  Week 12: Nov. 15 â at Georgia Bulldogs Context: Georgia beat Texas twice in 2024, but Texas is projected to win a close road game (fan prediction: 17-16). Georgia remains a top team, making this a marquee matchup. Early 2024 spreads had Texas +1.5. Spread: Georgia -3.5 (Texas +3.5) Over/Under: 49.5 Rationale: Georgiaâs home advantage and 2024 success make them slight favorites, but Texasâ growth keeps it tight. The low O/U reflects a defensive struggle.  Week 13: Nov. 22 â vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Context: Arkansas is a mid-tier SEC team, and Texas is favored at home (fan prediction: 34-21). Texasâ talent and home crowd should lead to a comfortable win. Early 2024 spreads had Texas -16.5. Spread: Texas -15.5 Over/Under: 56.5 Rationale: Texasâ offensive firepower justifies a large spread, with Arkansas capable of scoring. The O/U reflects a higher-scoring game.  Week 14: Nov. 29 â vs. Texas A&M Aggies Context: The rivalry game is a season-definer. Texas dominated Texas A&M in 2024, and fans predict a 21-0 shutout. Texasâ home advantage and talent edge are significant. Early 2024 spreads had Texas -4. Spread: Texas -10.5 Over/Under: 51.5 Rationale: Texasâ 2024 dominance and home field support a double-digit spread. The O/U assumes Texas controls the game but A&M scores late.  Summary Table of Betting Lines Week Opponent Spread Over/Under 1 at Ohio State Texas +2.5 51.5 2 vs. San Jose State Texas -35.5 59.5 3 vs. UTEP Texas -38.5 57.5 5 vs. Sam Houston State Texas -40.5 61.5 6 at Florida Texas -13.5 54.5 7 vs. Oklahoma (Neutral) Texas -9.5 52.5 8 at Kentucky Texas -14.5 50.5 9 at Mississippi State Texas -21.5 55.5 10 vs. Vanderbilt Texas -12.5 53.5 12 at Georgia Texas +3.5 49.5 13 vs. Arkansas Texas -15.5 56.5 14 vs. Texas A&M Texas -10.5 51.5 Additional Notes Season Win Total: Early sentiment suggests Texas could win over 10.5 regular-season games, with analysts projecting 11-1. The scheduleâs lighter SEC portion (only Georgia and Texas A&M are major threats) supports this.  Key Games: The Ohio State and Georgia games are likely to draw heavy betting interest due to their CFP implications. Texasâ performance in these could shift national championship odds.  Data Gaps: Specific 2025 opponent rosters and coaching changes are not fully detailed, so lines for games like Florida and Kentucky assume moderate improvement. If new data emerges (e.g., transfer portal moves), lines could shift.  Betting Trends: Texasâ 2024 red-zone struggles (54th nationally) could impact close games, but Manningâs mobility may improve efficiency. Defensively, Texas should remain elite, keeping O/U totals lower against strong opponents.  2 Quote
WG Carter Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago Think Texas moved 4th game of year up a week---to get bye week before going to Florida Quote
Moderators Blake Munroe Posted 4 hours ago Author Moderators Posted 4 hours ago Just now, WG Carter said: Think Texas moved 4th game of year up a week---to get bye week before going to Florida They did. AI just didn't reflect that change. 1 Quote
Joe Zura Posted 4 hours ago Posted 4 hours ago won the SEC Championship we lost Blake do better đ Quote
Moderators Blake Munroe Posted 4 hours ago Author Moderators Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Joe Zura said: won the SEC Championship we lost Blake do better đ I didn't even notice that. lol I fixed it for Grok. 1 Quote
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