3 star recruiting analysis Texas vs rivals

[Quinncent McManning, Jr.]

Lots of back and forth about the 3 stars in this class, particularly as the end to the class.  We know that the coaches have had some pretty big hits on 3 stars in the last few years.  For example:

2024 (11 3-stars, includes punter) - Ty-Anthony Smith, Parker Livingstone, Alex January

2023 (9 3-stars) - Tre Wisner, Trevor Goosby

2021 (11 3-stars includes kicker and long snapper) - Cole Hutson, Ethan Burke, Cam Williams, Connor Robertson

 

According to the 247 composite, we have 10 currently (includes K, P, and LS).  In comparison:

#1 USC (13), #2 Georgia (8), #3 Bama (9), #4 ND (4), #5 Oregon (3). .. also #9 Aggy (only 3 with a kicker included out of a class of 26), #15 OU (11), and #19 Tech (13).

So we will likely finish with more than more than almost all of the top #10 recruiting classes except save USC which has a whopping 34 commits (including 1 5 star and 20 4 stars).  

 

So in the spirit of not being homerish and saying well our 3 stars are the best, or OH NO we are finishing the class with a whimper with only 3 stars, I wanted to take a look at 2 things.. how are the classes that are more relevant to Texas... finishing their classes (senior evals, flips), and who is offering these 3 stars.   I'll focus on the #1 class in the country USC, and 34 of our biggest rivals - Georgia, Aggy, OU, and Tech (at least in recruiting these days)

First, how the classes are ending since game #1 of the season:

1. USC has added 2 3-stars (#3 JUCO TE, #66 CB) since the beginning of the season

2. Georgia has added: 4 star EDGE (#2), 3 star OL (#1 JUCO player overall by 247, #3 composite)

9. Aggy has added: 4 star WR (#235 national, #32 WR)

15. OU has added: 4 star WR (#93 national, #13 WR), 4 star RB (Hatton, who then lost and then regained, #100 national, #5 RB), 4 star WR (#52 WR), 4star WR (#60 WR), 4 star S (#29 LB), 3-star WR, 3-star safeties.  Makes more sense for OU to have so many additions, given how bleak their recruiting was prior to the season and their pretty good year so far.

19. Tech has added nobody

So very interesting that most of our competition has not added much of anything since the season started.. we've added 4 recently to try to top off the class, and a few more are likely.  Obviously the other teams may add a few here and there as well.

 

Next, how are the 3 stars  (note there is a little discrepancy between the 247 team ranking stars and what is listed on the recruiting profiles directly):

1. USC -Josiah Jefferson the #1 JUCO TE in the country, flipped from Utah, Jayden Crowder CB flipped from Cal

2. Georgia - Jarmaine Mitchell, nation's #1 JUCO OT, flipped from Miss St.

15. OU - Xavier Okwufulueze WR, first instate commit of the OU class over okie lite and arky, Markel Ford 3 star flip from SMU

Obviously we know our situation with Cummings (Cal), Walker (Minn), Scherer (Stanford), and Jilek (Minn)

Ultimately, the late flips are dependent on how full the classes are (USC 32 to 34 commits, Georgia 29 to 31 commits, Texas 20 to 24 commits, Aggy 25 to 26 commits, OU 17 to 24 commits, and Tech 20 commits with intent to throw money at the portal.

Where every team's philosophy with NIL/Rev share also plays into this.  Tech is playing the big dollars at the portal game every year, which is risky (see Florida State).  Who will bend the rules to play players (USC, Aggy?)  I'm ultimately not moved one way or another by Texas' late strategy of filling the class with a whole bunch of 3 stars to finish.  You may get a few to hit as we have in the last several years, and we are saving gunpowder for the portal.  However, it will be a dogfight to get who we want in the portal, and if you don't get who you want in the portal.. guess what, 4 of the aforementinoed teams are already streaking ahead in 2027 (#1 Aggy with 1 5 star level guy plus another 6 4 stars, #2 OU with 2 5 star level guys, #6 Tech with 2 5 stars, #8 Georgia with 1 5 star).