Stay in school or declare early: Dr. Grok's analysis

[Buck Travis]

As an old school SWC fan (who did all I could to stay in school) my gut tells me that unless you're a 1st or 2nd round pick, you should stay in school. So I bounced the risk/rewards off of Grok:

 

For a college football player projected as a **Round 3 or 4 pick**, the decision to declare early for the NFL Draft involves a balanced but risky **risk-reward calculation**. The financial upside is meaningful compared to staying in school, but the career longevity and success rates in those mid-rounds are modest, and returning to college can significantly boost draft stock (and thus earnings) while providing other benefits in the NIL era.

 

### Rewards of Declaring Early (Going Pro)

- **Immediate Money**: Rookie contracts are slotted and fully guaranteed for most practical purposes in early rounds.

  - A typical Round 3 pick in recent drafts (e.g., mid-round) signs a 4-year deal worth ~$5-6 million total, with ~$1-2 million guaranteed (mostly signing bonus).

  - Round 4: ~$4-5 million total, with ~$800k-$1.2 million guaranteed.

  - You get paid right away (signing bonus upfront), start your NFL clock, and have a shot at proving yourself for a second contract.

- **Professional Opportunity**: If you're projected Day 2 (Rounds 3-4), you're likely talented enough to get drafted and compete for a roster spot. Many mid-round picks become contributors or starters (e.g., ~30-40% chance of becoming a solid starter in Round 3, dropping to ~15-20% in Round 4 based on historical data).

- **Avoid Risk of Decline**: One bad senior season, injury in college, or stock drop could push you to Round 5-7 (much lower pay) or undrafted.

 

### Risks of Declaring Early

- **Short Career Potential**: Average NFL career for mid-round picks is ~4-6 years, but many don't last beyond their rookie deal.

  - Round 3 picks average ~50-60 games played historically; Round 4 closer to 40-50.

  - Only ~40-50% of Day 2/3 picks play out their full rookie contract as regulars; many are cut early.

  - If you flame out, you've forfeited college eligibility—no return option.

- **Limited Upside Compared to Rising**: Mid-round money is good but not life-changing like Rounds 1-2. If you stay and dominate, you could jump to Day 1/early Day 2 (e.g., $10-30M+ contracts).

- **Opportunity Cost**: In the NIL era, top players earn $500k-$2M+ per year in college via endorsements/collectives. Staying often means similar (or better) short-term cash without the NFL grind/injury risk.

 

### Benefits of Staying in College

- **Boost Draft Stock**: Many players projected mid-rounds return and become top-100 or even first-round picks (common examples: improved film, leadership, stats lead to higher grades).

  - NFL Advisory Committee often recommends staying for projected Round 3+ grades to improve positioning.

- **NIL Earnings + Development**: Make serious money now (often comparable to mid-round rookie salaries for stars), finish degree, refine skills, and reduce injury risk in pro-style offenses.

- **Fewer Early Declarations Overall**: Post-NIL, underclassmen entries have dropped ~50%—most who declare now are projected Rounds 1-3, meaning mid-round projections increasingly stay.

- **Fallback**: Degree + NIL resume provides security if NFL doesn't pan out long-term.

 

### Overall Assessment

- **If Projected Firmly Round 3**: Lean toward going pro—the money is solid (~$5M+ deal), and waiting risks falling lower.

- **If Borderline Round 3/4 or Lower**: Strongly consider staying—history shows big jumps possible, and NIL makes college lucrative.

- The NFL is high-risk regardless: Even drafted players have ~3-6 year average careers, with mid-rounders often needing to fight for spots.

 

Advice from scouts/GMs: Get feedback from the NFL College Advisory Committee. If they say "Round 3 or better," go. If "return to school," the data backs staying for most mid-tier projections. It's rarely a slam-dunk either way—personal development, injury history, and finances (NIL offers) tip the scale.