Reviewing 2024 1st Round Draft Picks Vs Recruiting Rankings

[closetojumping]

The notion that recruiting rankings don't matter is still a popular position permeating CFB discussions across the Internet and in sports bars all across the country. I am curious what the 2024 draft class might tell us regarding that and other takeaways when thinking about how the services handle their bs. 

We've only seen Round 1, but I figured some thoughts from that round alone could be interesting. I put together some simple numbers that are spoilered below as a resource. 

Spoiler

Here are a few takeaways:

1) If you want to be a high draft pick, it is an imperative to play for what will now be P4 programs or Notre Dame. Verse may or may not have been discovered when at Albany. Besides him, you have Mitchell. 30 picks started at P5 and 31 finished at P5. 

2) ESPN and Rivals were consistently rating these players lower, sometimes much lower, than 247 and, when they were ranking guys, On3 (they started ranking in 2021). This isn't surprising to many of us paying attention, I think, but it's crazy how much credence both services are still given when they're as lazy or biased as it gets.

3) 15.6% of the 32 picks are former 5 stars. 5 stars represent less .5% of the recruiting classes each cycle. Yet again, the notion that a 5 star ranking should carry some credence is fully validated by this first round.

4) Half of the picks were 4 stars while 4 stars represent roughly 15-20% of each ranked recruiting group. Again, the "coach up them 3 stars that want to be a X University ballplayer!" is folly as a general rule. If you find yourself saying this as a fan, you'd better damned sure hope you have a coach like Jonathan Smith or Kalen Daboer developing your team, otherwise you're probably screwed.

5) One place in which the rankings are suspect is on the OL. We knew this, but it is still stark. 5 of the drafted OLs in the first round were 3 stars. 2 4 stars and 2 5 stars. The 2 4 stars were ranked in the 300s and barely reached the 4 star ranking. One of those 4 stars is Joe Alt, who ESPN and Rivals basically thought was worthless. Of the 5 stars, Latham is the highest consensus ranked player of the 32 draft picks. He was viewed as about as can't miss as there ever are. Strong recruiting work by Kyle Flood on that one. The other guy, Mims, was similar and consensus ranked #10 in the same class. In effect, even can't miss guys ... miss (Tommy Brockermeyer was consensus #6 in the same cycle as these two, also solid recruiting work by Flood in terms of signing him), but you'd like to land those and otherwise have an OL coach who knows what in the hell they are doing with raw materials when they sign them. 

6) 9 transfers out of 32 picks (28%), 4 QBs, 3 DEs, 1 WR and 1 OT. Not sure if there's anything to make of that, I guess.

7) Of the 7 WRs taken, not one was a 5 star. Worthy was the highest ranked of the group at 55. In just a cursory review of the WR rankings over the 2017-2022 period, you basically will wind up with like one 1st round pick out of every five 5 stars, with some sprinkled in later picks, and a majority of them being busts outside of that. Rankers might miss more at WR than any other spot and should consider factoring in off-the-field issues/character due to the high diva factor at this position. The idea that Agiye Hall outranked Marvin Harrison Jr in the same class by 30+ spots is somewhat comical.

It's a small sample size and all that, so make of it what you will. I'm curious if others have any thoughts when looking at this, however. 

[Derek Handler]

Good stuff, also important to play in the Big 10 or SEC.  24 of the 32 picks and 11 of the top 13 are from these conferences using 2024 conferences.