closetojumping

The notion that recruiting rankings don't matter is still a popular position permeating CFB discussions across the Internet and in sports bars all across the country. I am curious what the 2024 draft class might tell us regarding that and other takeaways when thinking about how the services handle their bs. We've only seen Round 1, but I figured some thoughts from that round alone could be interesting. I put together some simple numbers that are spoilered below as a resource. Here are a few takeaways: 1) If you want to be a high draft pick, it is an imperative to play for what will now be P4 programs or Notre Dame. Verse may or may not have been discovered when at Albany. Besides him, you have Mitchell. 30 picks started at P5 and 31 finished at P5. 2) ESPN and Rivals were consistently rating these players lower, sometimes much lower, than 247 and, when they were ranking guys, On3 (they started ranking in 2021). This isn't surprising to many of us paying attention, I think, but it's crazy how much credence both services are still given when they're as lazy or biased as it gets. 3) 15.6% of the 32 picks are former 5 stars. 5 stars represent less .5% of the recruiting classes each cycle. Yet again, the notion that a 5 star ranking should carry some credence is fully validated by this first round. 4) Half of the picks were 4 stars while 4 stars represent roughly 15-20% of each ranked recruiting group. Again, the "coach up them 3 stars that want to be a X University ballplayer!" is folly as a general rule. If you find yourself saying this as a fan, you'd better damned sure hope you have a coach like Jonathan Smith or Kalen Daboer developing your team, otherwise you're probably screwed. 5) One place in which the rankings are suspect is on the OL. We knew this, but it is still stark. 5 of the drafted OLs in the first round were 3 stars. 2 4 stars and 2 5 stars. The 2 4 stars were ranked in the 300s and barely reached the 4 star ranking. One of those 4 stars is Joe Alt, who ESPN and Rivals basically thought was worthless. Of the 5 stars, Latham is the highest consensus ranked player of the 32 draft picks. He was viewed as about as can't miss as there ever are. Strong recruiting work by Kyle Flood on that one. The other guy, Mims, was similar and consensus ranked #10 in the same class. In effect, even can't miss guys ... miss (Tommy Brockermeyer was consensus #6 in the same cycle as these two, also solid recruiting work by Flood in terms of signing him), but you'd like to land those and otherwise have an OL coach who knows what in the hell they are doing with raw materials when they sign them. 6) 9 transfers out of 32 picks (28%), 4 QBs, 3 DEs, 1 WR and 1 OT. Not sure if there's anything to make of that, I guess. 7) Of the 7 WRs taken, not one was a 5 star. Worthy was the highest ranked of the group at 55. In just a cursory review of the WR rankings over the 2017-2022 period, you basically will wind up with like one 1st round pick out of every five 5 stars, with some sprinkled in later picks, and a majority of them being busts outside of that. Rankers might miss more at WR than any other spot and should consider factoring in off-the-field issues/character due to the high diva factor at this position. The idea that Agiye Hall outranked Marvin Harrison Jr in the same class by 30+ spots is somewhat comical. It's a small sample size and all that, so make of it what you will. I'm curious if others have any thoughts when looking at this, however.

I was listening to Chris Plank on College Sports Sunday yesterday on XM84. He’s part of OU’s broadcasting team and a homer accordingly. Otherwise, he’s a good listen. Anyway, coming back to Houston from a game in Austin two years ago, they had him on as a guest. OU was 3-0 and had just routed Nebraska. They asked him what OU’s biggest weakness was on that team. Long pause, then almost breathlessly “I really don’t think they have any” just before going in the tank against KSU, TCU and 0-49 vs Texas. So he’s hosting yesterday and he recounts the OU spring game. He declares that their defensive front is going to be amazing while also stating that they’re probably going to have to start two freshmen on the DL. After whining about Manning getting hyped for a spring game output during an earlier segment, he also tells the audience that Jackson Arnold is still a work in progress and his struggles are due to age (same class as Manning and one of the QBs that morons touted as better than Manning). The OL was a sieve. They have a dude in Burks and the secondary is supposed to be solid. The whole segment was grim if you’re an okie and kind of hilarious if you’re not.

I already addressed your ignorance upthread. You appear too spineless to respond. Get a grip with your weak BS and whining, clown.

This is simply false. I already ran through this nonsense with CJ Vogel a few weeks ago. Is Texas baseball NIL on LSU's level? No, no one is. Stating that Texas is lower half of the SEC is either ignorantly spreading false information or purposely offering up misinformation. Not sure which is on you, but it one or the other, sorry.

Good. He was a hypocritical, wife-beating murderer of innocents. He deserved worse than what he got on this planet.

Just so we're clear here, are you espousing the notion that this isn't a grown man's fault for his own idiotic decisions, but instead, it's all these big meanie businesses that conspired together that forced said idiot to make these decisions? "Gee, I've known since childhood that betting on a sport that I'm currently playing in could lead to a lifetime ban, and, it makes it even worse if I bet for or against myself and my team, but gosh dangit, ESPN and the NBA do have relationships with legal gambling sites. That must make it all okay, so I am going all in on myself! Prop bets on me for everyone!" Right.

Not everything is black and white, and that isn’t “my schtick”, but this situation is. You equivocating otherwise just creates noise in the thread. If people can at least understand the legitimate variables associated to the matter, interesting discussions can then occur. Noise gets in the middle of that. Take the maudlin “think of the kid and his family” notion and post about it on Twitter or in your diary if you feel the need. Ant Hill is doing a lot of work for you in this post. A hell of a lot.

Hey man, you’re welcome to your fantasies, but I’m not sure it’s helpful to be sharing them in public. If anyone is living under the illusion that Bear Alexander is in the portal for reasons other than NIL, get a frigging grip and kept that silliness to yourself. Jesus.

What happens this time is that if they take this idiot, I will purposefully get blitzed out of my gourd at the TOF function in May and then projectile vomit in the general direction of both Kenny Baker and Steve Sarkisian.

I hope Texas stays as far away from this mercenary imbecile as they possibly can.

It’s literally in the post above yours.

Including summer transfers and enrollees, there are 89 guys on scholarship. Include Auburn and you get to 90. Include 2-3 new transfers in this portal cycle and you have 92-93. Texas will have a minimum of 7-8 guys leave the program before August. That gets you to 85.

Update:

Cool, no kidding. In the meantime, get a frigging grip and realize that isn’t happening yet. Either donate or don’t, but spare us what amounts to fantasy.

We have scholarship players that aren’t getting NIL. Some of that is okay and some of it isn’t. If you want to be serious about it, we can crowdfund a young guy in the back of the depth chart who we know they don’t want to visit the portal. I won’t help or support the walk-on notion knowing that, however. One key thing to understand here is that the program would need to have input.