Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Moderators Share Posted September 23 I went down a mini rabbit hole early Sunday morning after what appeared to be Steve Sarkisian's version of a long-drive competition with Arch Manning on Saturday. The Longhorns were bombing passes down the field. It was early, it was often, it was exciting, it was inconsistent. However, it got me thinking – is this the most vertical passing offense we have seen from a Sarkisian offense? What's the reasoning for this sudden boom or bust approach from the offense? Does it fit Arch Manning's skillset more than it does Quinn Ewers? Perhaps. Is it Arch Manning wanting to carry over the highlight reel performance from UTSA? Also maybe. But more than that, is it an inexperienced quarterback forcing deep and not finding underneath options? That's perhaps where I lean the most at the moment. It was also a bit telling in Steve Sarkisian's post-game press conference that he was perhaps a bit regretful in not finding shorter, easier throws for Manning when the offense got a bit stagnant in the third quarter. The word "greed" was mentioned at some point when describing the offensive approach. But anyways, to the point of the article – Arch Manning's first career start was the most vertical offensive passing attack a Texas quarterback has seen under Steve Sarkisian. *** A few quick stats with help from Pro Football Focus: 1. Arch Manning attempted more passes 20+ yards down field in his first start than Quinn Ewers has in any of his 25 career games as Longhorn. 2. Arch Manning's average distance of target (14.8) vs. UTSA was the longest average target distance since Hudson Card at Arkansas in 2021. It is also the longest average of any Texas quarterback with more than 15 pass attempts in a single game. 3. Quinn Ewers has played 25 games at Texas. He has an ADOT >10.0 yards downfield in 10 of his games. So far two extended appearances in 2024, Arch Manning has been north of that mark in both games. *** As a result, I started to dig a bit more into the average distance of target for Quinn Ewers, there were some notable takeaways worth sharing as well. Ewers in those 10 games with an ADOT >10 yards downfield is 6–4, with those three losses coming in the Playoff Game against Washington and 2022 against Alabama and TCU at home and Oklahoma State on the road. Those wins include ULM, Alabama and TCU in 2023, and ULM, Iowa State and Kansas State in 2022. Over the three years with Ewers at quarterback for Texas, the average distance of target has decreased significantly in each season: 2022: 10.5 yards 2023: 8.4 yards 2024: 6.2 yards We have seen Quinn become more and more accurate in each season as well. His completion percentage was 58.4% in 2022, then made a jump to 69.0% in 2023 and was hovering north of 73.4% in the two and a half games Ewers appeared in to begin this current season. For the most part, it was due to the underneath, quick throws that allowed his playmakers to create after the catch. Now, the point of this article isn't to push the narrative that the vertical passing offense is an issue for Arch Manning. It's not. But it is worth noting the risks that come when the vertical shots are not falling. Essentially, living and dying with the three ball in basketball. Texas in the third quarter saw what happened when the well went dry with two consecutive three & outs when the offense failed to connect on anything. Against SEC opponents, that will not fly. Arch was 3/10 on passes beyond 20+ yards against ULM with both an interception and a touchdown in the process. *** So back to Saturday night for Manning. It was a solid night. We covered earlier it wasn't a terrific night by any means. Manning found a rhythm after the first interception then lost it near halftime and around the third quarter. On the season so far for Arch, he has a mark of 25% of his pass attempts beyond 20 yards downfield. A smallish sample size, but it certainly does not feel like the Texas offense we have seen with Quinn Ewers behind center. 2019: Tua Tagovailoa (15.5%) on 252 attempts 2020: Mac Jones (13.8%) on 385 attempts 2021: Hudson Card (15.5%) on 76 attempts 2021: Casey Thompson (16.3%) on 247 attempts 2022: Quinn Ewers (17.6%) on 277 attempts 2023: Quinn Ewers (11.9%) on 367 attempts 2024: Quinn Ewers (8.9%) on 75 attempts 2024: Arch Manning (25.5%) on 44 attempts Again, a smaller sample size, but the volume of deep passes with Manning at quarterback is quite an outlier when comparing previous Sarkisian quarterbacks. As Manning gets more and more familiar with real game experience, the more I expect him to find the check down or opt for easier throws. It just makes sense with the Texas offense and the way these playmakers are able to create after the catch. 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Manning has more passes beyond 20 yards downfield than behind the LOS. Interesting nonetheless. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 It sure is pretty when it connects 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorn007 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 manning is a gunslinger fo sho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 8 minutes ago, Thorn007 said: manning is a gunslinger fo sho One start in, that holds true lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horns96 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 As I've heard Rod B say, Sark loves the long ball and he likes his offense to entertain. Last night reminded me of the first two years of Sark's offense, which was exciting but often frustrating (think Quinn's trip to Stillwater in 2022). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NothinButDaHorns34 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 It really seemed like sark may have emphasized not running or taking off if everything was covered because if he went through his progressing, nothing was there (mainly deep), he’d get a little panicked in the pocket. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 41 minutes ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said: It really seemed like sark may have emphasized not running or taking off if everything was covered because if he went through his progressing, nothing was there (mainly deep), he’d get a little panicked in the pocket. There were times I thought Arch was a little flustered due to pressure. Speed of the game caught up to him a few times. But all things that were correctable after tape and more live snaps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkInAustin Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 6 hours ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said: It really seemed like sark may have emphasized not running or taking off if everything was covered because if he went through his progressing, nothing was there (mainly deep), he’d get a little panicked in the pocket. I really favor this take. Like early VY, Arch's personal inclination for a second read seems to be to run, and I suspect that was verboten for him against ULM and will be against Miss St. He can read progressions it seems to me, so I hope Sark hammers on how good the receivers are after the catch and has him looking short first. When he can content himself to take the easy pickings he will have matured to a new level. The bomb can be held in reserve and can still be useful if used sparingly. Throwing one now and then [but NOT into double coverage] loosens up the defense and makes Helm or a RB underneath a YAC menace. Manning is enough of a student of the game that he may be able to quickly correct the "greedy" tendency to look long, first. That would be my hope. As for his passing, not his decision making, his timing with Blue needs a lot of work that I think may never appear Quinn-like this season. Quinn definitely has more arrows in his quiver because he is comfortable throwing to his RBs and TEs. End result? Let Quinn have two more weeks before OU, and look for Arch to take advantage of short throws to WRs, allowing them to move after the catch, against MSU. If he does more - finds his RBs and TEs - that'll be pure gravy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quinncent McManning, Jr. Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 I remember listening to an NFL analysis of pre-snap motion recently, and a commenter said that Peyton Manning didn't like using at all as he liked to make all of the changes himself at the line. Not that Arch is that nearly that advanced in his understanding but I wonder if some of his Manning "training" has been through that type of philosophy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 1 hour ago, Quinncent McManning, Jr. said: I remember listening to an NFL analysis of pre-snap motion recently, and a commenter said that Peyton Manning didn't like using at all as he liked to make all of the changes himself at the line. Not that Arch is that nearly that advanced in his understanding but I wonder if some of his Manning "training" has been through that type of philosophy. Going through the numbers now but motion is way down with Arch at QB compared to Quinn. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 A season low 42.86% of presnap motion was used in the ULM game. Very basic, vanilla offense for the most part before the snap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators CJ Vogel Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Of 21 qualifying QB's, Arch's ADOT of 12.6 is the second longest in all of the SEC. Quinn Ewers' 6.2 ADOT is the shortest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quinncent McManning, Jr. Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 mannings are funny. 😄 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrancoBevo3.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Is it that Sark is calling longer plays with Manning in or is it that Manning doesn’t identify and take advantage of the check-downs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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