SOS rankings are flawed as hell

[CHorn427]

Any SOS ranking that has Colorado’s SOS higher than Michigan State’s is only good for wiping your butt with.

Take for example this one:

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
 

Has Colorado’s SOS (“44th”) higher than Michigan State’s (“59th”). 
 

Colorado played 0 of the Big12’s top 3 teams. 6 of the Big12’s bottom 7 teams. One ranked team all season (KSU, lost). Their toughest OOC opponent was the Big10’s 13th best team (Neb, lost big). Played 0 teams that made the CFP.

Meanwhile, Michigan State played 6 of the Big10’s best 7 teams (3 of which made the CFP). 
 

Truly egregious.

[horns96]

Never seen the SOS you posted, but Sagarin has been doing this for 25+ years and his model usually predicts opening lines within a point.

Jeff Sagarin's College Football Ratings

Before today's game, he has CU as 26th in SOS and Michigan State as 28th.

That's the thing about data - it often points you to counterintuitive perspectives.  Also, given there are 264 teams in these rankings, is the difference between 26th and 28th even significant?  No, it's not.  Is the difference between 44th and 59th even significant? Probably not.

PS - Sagarin has Arizona State as only a 7pt dog on a neutral field vs TEXAS 🤷‍♂️

[Bobbers]

10 hours ago, horns96 said:

 

PS - Sagarin has Arizona State as only a 7pt dog on a neutral field vs TEXAS 🤷‍♂️

Now that is interesting.  It is going to be hard for the players to not look past this game.

This is a trap game for sure.

[VaHorn]

ESPN has Michigan State at 27th and Colorado at 63rd. Texas has risen to 14th. 

[bierce]

21 hours ago, CHorn427 said:

Any SOS ranking that has Colorado’s SOS higher than Michigan State’s is only good for wiping your butt with.

Take for example this one:

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
 

Has Colorado’s SOS (“44th”) higher than Michigan State’s (“59th”). 
 

Colorado played 0 of the Big12’s top 3 teams. 6 of the Big12’s bottom 7 teams. One ranked team all season (KSU, lost). Their toughest OOC opponent was the Big10’s 13th best team (Neb, lost big). Played 0 teams that made the CFP.

Meanwhile, Michigan State played 6 of the Big10’s best 7 teams (3 of which made the CFP). 
 

Truly egregious.

That's what happens when you schedule North Dakota State instead of Prairie View A&M.

 

[CHorn427]

22 hours ago, horns96 said:

Never seen the SOS you posted, but Sagarin has been doing this for 25+ years and his model usually predicts opening lines within a point.

Jeff Sagarin's College Football Ratings

Before today's game, he has CU as 26th in SOS and Michigan State as 28th.

That's the thing about data - it often points you to counterintuitive perspectives.  Also, given there are 264 teams in these rankings, is the difference between 26th and 28th even significant?  No, it's not.  Is the difference between 44th and 59th even significant? Probably not.

PS - Sagarin has Arizona State as only a 7pt dog on a neutral field vs TEXAS 🤷‍♂️

Even this one- there is no chance in hell Colorado had the 26th toughest schedule or had a schedule tougher than Michigan State.

The hardest games you can play are against playoff teams, ranked teams and/or the top teams in your conference.
 

I repeat: Colorado played zero playoff teams, one ranked team and dodged all three of  the three best Big12 teams.

Michigan State played THREE PLAYOFF TEAMS and 6 of the best 7 Big10 teams. I haven’t exhaustively looked, but I’m fairly confident no other team in the country played more CFP teams than MSU. 

The fact that there isn’t a big gap between CU and MSU’s SOS in this ranking proves my point: there should be a big gap! MSU’s SOS was leaps and bounds tougher than CU’s.
 

ESPN’s SOS gets it right: has Colorado the 2nd worst SOS of any P4 ahead of only UNC. 

[CHorn427]

11 hours ago, VaHorn said:

ESPN has Michigan State at 27th and Colorado at 63rd. Texas has risen to 14th. 

That matches reality significantly more. Colorado has gotten a bump from their bowl game, but before ESPN had their SOS as the second easiest of any P4 ahead of only UNC. Which makes total sense- CU had the easiest schedule of any team in the second to worst P4 conference and UNC had the easiest schedule in the worst P4 conference. 

[bierce]

8 hours ago, CHorn427 said:

 

The hardest games you can play are against playoff teams, ranked teams and/or the top teams in your conference.
 

I repeat: Colorado played zero playoff teams, one ranked team and dodged all three of  the three best Big12 teams.

Michigan State played THREE PLAYOFF TEAMS and 6 of the best 7 Big10 teams. I haven’t exhaustively looked, but I’m fairly confident no other team in the country played more CFP teams than MSU. 

Georgia played Texas twice and Clemson and Tennessee once each, so while Georgia didn't play more CFP teams, it played more games against CFP teams.

[CHorn427]

1 hour ago, bierce said:

Georgia played Texas twice and Clemson and Tennessee once each, so while Georgia didn't play more CFP teams, it played more games against CFP teams.

Fair enough- although I think UGA’s schedule strength is very well documented.

UGA for sure has had the toughest schedule of anyone in the country. 

My overall point though: MSU’s SOS is stronger than CU’s and it’s not close. And I’m sure there are other instances of that in the SOS rankings.

Which makes the disturbingly common argument “the committee should favor SOS over overall record” that much more worrisome, when there are clear flaws in the outlooks and formulas for determining SOS.