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    Gerry Hamilton
    What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 
    The Texas Longhorns once again ripped out the hearts of a moblike Texas Tech fan base Tuesday night. The Longhorns responded from one rough day at Kansas with an 81-69 win at Texas Tech Tuesday night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. 
    Texas (18-10, 7-8) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, and is firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night.  
    OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to continue to be comfortably in the tourney.
    Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
    3/2 Oklahoma State 
    3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
    3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 
    NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 28)
    Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET after the win at Texas Tech. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40.
    The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 2-1 vs. Quad 3 and 9-0 vs. Quad 4. 
    Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
    No. 14 @ Baylor 
    Quad 2 game remaining:
    No. 40 Oklahoma 
    Quad 3 games remaining:
    No. 113 Oklahoma State 
    T-Rank 
    Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings after Tuesday night.
    2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
    Texas checks in at No. 28 after the win at Texas Tech.
    What it means for Texas
    The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday nights win. The resume continues to be aided by five Quad 1 wins and four Big 12 road wins. Only 14 teams in all of college basketball have more Quad 1 wins than Texas, and one of those is not in a Power 5 conference. 
    While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 25 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked in the 17-20 area. Texas' Big 12 schedule will carry a lot of weight when it comes to getting in the tournament, and seeding. 
    Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. There currently nine Big 12 teams projected to get in the Big Dance.
    Texas and seeding:
    Scenario 1: 20-11, 9-9 is likely a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament
    Scenario 2: 19-12, 8-10 would likely be a 8-9 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 
    Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. That would mean an 0-3 finish to the regular season, which is highly unlikely. 
    Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10 and 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning the last four games (Texas Tech starting the streak), including at Baylor on Monday.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. The Longhorns haven't won three Big 12 games in a row this season. 
    Gerry Hamilton
    Four-star DB locks in Texas official visit
    Hightower (Texas) High defensive back Kade Phillips has locked in an official visit to Texas. 
    The 6-1.5, 180 pound versatile defensive back with an 80 inch wingspan and 10 inch hands told OnTexasFootball he will make an official visit to Texas June 21-23.
    Phillips was offered by safeties coach and area recruiter Blake Gideon February 17. 
    "The Texas offer meant a lot to me," Phillips told OnTexasFootball last week at Hightower High. "Texas is a big school, big culture and it meant a lot. It felt great. Coach Gideon came to see me multiple times. He came to track practice, came by the field house multiple times just to talk. Texas is going to be up there. Up there." 
    Phillips attended Texas Junior day January 20. He has been on campus multiple times in the last year, including a game visit in 2023. 
    Texas A&M and LSU remain the competition
    Phillips is the younger brother of former Texas A&M linebacker signee Kenneth Phillips, who had his career cut short after a devastating knee injury his senior season. He remains a student at Texas A&M. Kade Phillips was back on campus in College Station January 27 for Junior Day.
    "Coach (Mike) Elko just wants everybody to be part of the recruitment. Not just your position coach, but all of the coaches. He wants it to be one big family. They offered me at corner, but like my versatility. Wherever the team needs me is what they said."
    Phillips will make his first ever trip to LSU this spring. It's a visit that will be very key in the recruitment.
    "I'm in contact with Coach (Corey) Raymond every day. He's just checking in on me, seeing how I'm doing. I just know it's LSU. Big facility, big program. It will be a big visit fore me when I go down there."
    Arkansas, Oregon, Baylor and Kansas as schools also making runs right now. 
    Phillips plans to commit prior to his senior season after June official visits. 
    CJ Vogel

    2027 QB to Keep An Eye On

    By CJ Vogel, in Articles,

    While I was hoping to get an idea of the current landscape of 2026 DL Tiki Hola's recruitment while on the road at Bastrop High this morning, I wanted to get a first look at what could end up being a very special quarterback coming through the ranks in central Texas.
    2027 QB Weston Nielsen has seen his recruitment really pop over the last few weeks.
    After starting the final eight games of the regular season, the cat is out of the bag with the CenTex gunslinger. Nielsen received his offer from Oregon on September 24, then received nine offers in the months of January and February.
    Texas made two stops by Bastrop during the contact window to evaluate Nielsen as well. The first was Steve Sarkisian on the first day of the contact window, January 12, and then the second was a solo visit from AJ Milwee two weeks later.
    Milwee was able to watch the 2027 quarterback throw in workouts as well.
    We know the Texas staff is rather peculiar when it comes to quarterback recruiting. Sarkisian is not loose with quarterback offers regardless of the talent crop, nor on-roster depth. Texas will have the shortest trek of any major D1 program to keep tabs on the 6-foot-3 quarterback during his development.
    The Bastrop staff is expecting the Longhorn staff to return to campus again to watch Nielsen throw during the spring. Should be interesting to follow with the local kid.
    Gerry Hamilton
    Four-star TE locks in Texas visit
    Jasper (Texas) High tight end Kiotti Armstrong has locked in a trio of spring visits, and one of those is to the Texas Longhorns. 
    Armstrong, 6-5 and 250 pounds, will make an unofficial visit to Texas April 13. That will be the last of three visits currently scheduled. 
    The Southeast Texas native will begin his spring unofficial visits with a trip to LSU March 23. He will follow that with a visit to Texas A&M April6. The Aggies are also working to get Armstrong on campus March 30. 
    Armstrong attended Texas Junior Day January 20, and spent about 20 minutes talking with head coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian also stopped by Jasper High in January.
    The former high school teammate of Texas freshman linebacker Tyanthony Smith made a pair of visits to Texas A&M prior to the quiet period. 
    Armstrong caught 26 passes for 268 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. 
    Bobby Burton
    Looking back at recruiting classes can be a difficult process. How do you grade them (based solely on college performance and what they did at Texas?), when exactly do you grade them (at the end of four years or five years, or even further out), etc?
    Well, hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
    To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into consideration roster attrition.
    2011 (21 signees/3 NFL players) - RB, Malcolm Brown; DB, Quandre Diggs; DB, Mykkele Thompson
    Evaluation Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who made the NFL divided by number of signees)
    Hit Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who finished their careers at Texas and made the NFL divided by number of signees)
    Notes: The demise of Mack Brown can be directly tied to his final five recruiting classes. Both the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes also had just three players make the NFL. Brown, at the time, was truly selecting the players he and his staff wanted. They did not do a good job overall. 
    2012 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - DT, Malcom Brown; OL, Donald Hawkins; DT, Hassan Ridgeway; CB, Duke Thomas; DB, Adrian Colbert (transfer out); WR, Marcus Johnson
    Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.42%
    Hit Rate: 5/28 = 17.86%
    Notes: Better numbers made the league here but as a percentage it was still way too slight. Adrian Colbert became one of only two Mack Brown transfers who eventually made the NFL from elsewhere (JaMarcus Webb was the other).
    2013 (15 signees/4 NFL players) - OL, Kent Perkins; OL, Desmond Harrison (transfer out); TE, Geoff Swaim; ATH, Montrel Meander (transfer out)
    Evaluation Rate: 4/15 = 26.67%
    Hit Rate: 2/15 = 13.33%
    2014 (23 signees/4 NFL players) - DE, Derick Roberson (transfer out); DT, Poona Ford; TE, Andrew Beck; RB, D'Onta Foreman
    Evaluation Rate: 4/23 = 17.39%
    Hit Rate: 3/23 = 13.04%
    Notes: Transition class from Mack Brown to Charlie Strong. Only one of Strong's recruits from the month of January ended up being an NFL player - Poona Ford.
    2015 (27 signees/8 NFL players) - LB, Malik Jefferson; DB, Holton Hill; DB, Kris Boyd; DB, DeShon Elliott; DL, Charles Omenihu; OL, Connor Williams; DB, PJ Locke; P, Michael Dickson
    Evaluation Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%
    Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%
    Notes: This was the best Texas class in nearly a decade and showed that Charlie Strong not only could recruit but his staff also ultimately had an eye for talent; Strong immediately doubled the Hit Rate of any of the previous eight years.
    2016 (28 signees/7 NFL players) - WR, Devin Duvernay, DB, Brandon Jones; DT, Jordan Elliott (transfer out); WR, Collin Johnson; DL, Malcom Roach; QB, Shane Buechele (transfer out); WR, LJ Humphrey
    Evaluation Rate: 7/28 = 25%
    Hit Rate = 5/28 = 17.86%
    Notes: Yet again, Strong showed a relatively strong eye for talent. But his poor on-field performance hurt his recruiting some. 
    2017 (18 signees/4 NFL players) - QB, Sam Ehlinger; DL, TaQuon Graham; OL, Sam Cosmi; DB, Josh Thompson
    Evaluation Rate: 4/18 22.22%
    Hit Rate: 4/18 22.22%
    Notes: Transition Class from Strong to Tom Herman. Like Strong, Herman only added one new signee that would eventually become an NFL player - Sam Cosmi.
    2018 (27 signees/11 NFL players) - DB, Caden Sterns; LB, DeMarvion Overshown; DT, Keondre Coburn; DL, Moro Ojomo; DE, Joe Ossai; CB, D'Shawn Jamison; RB, Keontay Ingram (transfer out); OL, Christian Jones; K, Cameron Dicker; DB, Jalen Green (transfer out); QB Cameron Rising (transfer out) (Players in italics have yet to be selected in NFL draft and make an NFL team)
    Evaluation Rate: 11/27 = 40.74%
    Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%
    Notes: This is the class that should have helped put Tom Herman over the top. Despite recruiting rankings to the contrary, he and his staff simply couldn't put two good classes together back-to-back.
    2019 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - WR, Bru McCoy (transfer out); WR, Jordan Whittington; S, Tyler Owens (transfer out); RB, Roschon Johnson; TE, Jared Wiley (transfer out); DT, T'Vondre Sweat
    Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.43%
    Hit Rate: 3/28 = 10.71%
    Notes: Look at the lowest Hit Rate of the decade. Even Mack Brown's last classes didn't miss on this many. This is part of the reason why Steve Sarkisian was saddled early with a lack of NFL talent. Attrition clearly played a role here but so did evaluation.
    2020 (22 signees/8 NFL players) - RB, Bijan Robinson; DL, Alfred Collins; ATH, Ja'Quinden Jackson (transfer out); OL, Jake Majors; DB, Jahdae Barron; LB, Jaylan Ford; DB Brenden Schooler; WR Tarik Black
    Evaluation Rate: 8/22 =36.36%
    Hit Rate: 7/22 = 25.93%
    Notes: A solid class. The evaluation and hit rate are buoyed by the additions of Schooler and Black as transfers and Black never really did much as a Longhorn.
    **
    NFL Hit Rates of elite programs should average in the 25-35% range, so that's what Texas should focus on achieving. Yet the Horns matched or surpassed that figure just three times in 10 years. And the Horns barely averaged 25% from just an "Evaluation Rate", which doesn't take into account attrition/transfers.
    Overall, poor depth and lack of top-end talent riddled Texas for much of the 2010s.
    So did recruiting inconsistency. Poor years for Strong in 2016 and Herman in 2019 perhaps showed that neither could sustain success at Texas.
    10-year average Evaluation Rate: 25.56%
    10-year average Hit Rate: 19.45%
    **
    A quick look into the 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes thus far.
    First, like his predecessors, Sark added at least one NFL player in his first month on the job in the 2021 class - Xavier Worthy. However, Sark also added Keilan Robinson who has a chance at the NFL as well. (Note to athletic administrators who make coaching changes: adding NFL players late in the process is just unlikely no matter who the coach is.)
    As for the 2022 class, Sark's group looks on par if not better than both Herman's and Strong's second classes, which attracted eight and 11 NFL players, respectively.
    The third class is where Sark diverges from Herman and Strong. While both Strong and Herman spiraled downward with third class, Sark is drastically different.
    His third recruiting class was nothing short of outstanding. In fact, early returns suggest his 2023 recruiting class will be Sark's best yet.
     
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