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    CJ Vogel

    2027 QB to Keep An Eye On

    By CJ Vogel, in Articles,

    While I was hoping to get an idea of the current landscape of 2026 DL Tiki Hola's recruitment while on the road at Bastrop High this morning, I wanted to get a first look at what could end up being a very special quarterback coming through the ranks in central Texas.
    2027 QB Weston Nielsen has seen his recruitment really pop over the last few weeks.
    After starting the final eight games of the regular season, the cat is out of the bag with the CenTex gunslinger. Nielsen received his offer from Oregon on September 24, then received nine offers in the months of January and February.
    Texas made two stops by Bastrop during the contact window to evaluate Nielsen as well. The first was Steve Sarkisian on the first day of the contact window, January 12, and then the second was a solo visit from AJ Milwee two weeks later.
    Milwee was able to watch the 2027 quarterback throw in workouts as well.
    We know the Texas staff is rather peculiar when it comes to quarterback recruiting. Sarkisian is not loose with quarterback offers regardless of the talent crop, nor on-roster depth. Texas will have the shortest trek of any major D1 program to keep tabs on the 6-foot-3 quarterback during his development.
    The Bastrop staff is expecting the Longhorn staff to return to campus again to watch Nielsen throw during the spring. Should be interesting to follow with the local kid.
    Gerry Hamilton
    Four-star TE locks in Texas visit
    Jasper (Texas) High tight end Kiotti Armstrong has locked in a trio of spring visits, and one of those is to the Texas Longhorns. 
    Armstrong, 6-5 and 250 pounds, will make an unofficial visit to Texas April 13. That will be the last of three visits currently scheduled. 
    The Southeast Texas native will begin his spring unofficial visits with a trip to LSU March 23. He will follow that with a visit to Texas A&M April6. The Aggies are also working to get Armstrong on campus March 30. 
    Armstrong attended Texas Junior Day January 20, and spent about 20 minutes talking with head coach Steve Sarkisian. Sarkisian also stopped by Jasper High in January.
    The former high school teammate of Texas freshman linebacker Tyanthony Smith made a pair of visits to Texas A&M prior to the quiet period. 
    Armstrong caught 26 passes for 268 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. 
    Bobby Burton
    Looking back at recruiting classes can be a difficult process. How do you grade them (based solely on college performance and what they did at Texas?), when exactly do you grade them (at the end of four years or five years, or even further out), etc?
    Well, hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
    To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into consideration roster attrition.
    2011 (21 signees/3 NFL players) - RB, Malcolm Brown; DB, Quandre Diggs; DB, Mykkele Thompson
    Evaluation Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who made the NFL divided by number of signees)
    Hit Rate: 3/21 = 14.29% (No. of players who finished their careers at Texas and made the NFL divided by number of signees)
    Notes: The demise of Mack Brown can be directly tied to his final five recruiting classes. Both the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes also had just three players make the NFL. Brown, at the time, was truly selecting the players he and his staff wanted. They did not do a good job overall. 
    2012 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - DT, Malcom Brown; OL, Donald Hawkins; DT, Hassan Ridgeway; CB, Duke Thomas; DB, Adrian Colbert (transfer out); WR, Marcus Johnson
    Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.42%
    Hit Rate: 5/28 = 17.86%
    Notes: Better numbers made the league here but as a percentage it was still way too slight. Adrian Colbert became one of only two Mack Brown transfers who eventually made the NFL from elsewhere (JaMarcus Webb was the other).
    2013 (15 signees/4 NFL players) - OL, Kent Perkins; OL, Desmond Harrison (transfer out); TE, Geoff Swaim; ATH, Montrel Meander (transfer out)
    Evaluation Rate: 4/15 = 26.67%
    Hit Rate: 2/15 = 13.33%
    2014 (23 signees/4 NFL players) - DE, Derick Roberson (transfer out); DT, Poona Ford; TE, Andrew Beck; RB, D'Onta Foreman
    Evaluation Rate: 4/23 = 17.39%
    Hit Rate: 3/23 = 13.04%
    Notes: Transition class from Mack Brown to Charlie Strong. Only one of Strong's recruits from the month of January ended up being an NFL player - Poona Ford.
    2015 (27 signees/8 NFL players) - LB, Malik Jefferson; DB, Holton Hill; DB, Kris Boyd; DB, DeShon Elliott; DL, Charles Omenihu; OL, Connor Williams; DB, PJ Locke; P, Michael Dickson
    Evaluation Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%
    Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%
    Notes: This was the best Texas class in nearly a decade and showed that Charlie Strong not only could recruit but his staff also ultimately had an eye for talent; Strong immediately doubled the Hit Rate of any of the previous eight years.
    2016 (28 signees/7 NFL players) - WR, Devin Duvernay, DB, Brandon Jones; DT, Jordan Elliott (transfer out); WR, Collin Johnson; DL, Malcom Roach; QB, Shane Buechele (transfer out); WR, LJ Humphrey
    Evaluation Rate: 7/28 = 25%
    Hit Rate = 5/28 = 17.86%
    Notes: Yet again, Strong showed a relatively strong eye for talent. But his poor on-field performance hurt his recruiting some. 
    2017 (18 signees/4 NFL players) - QB, Sam Ehlinger; DL, TaQuon Graham; OL, Sam Cosmi; DB, Josh Thompson
    Evaluation Rate: 4/18 22.22%
    Hit Rate: 4/18 22.22%
    Notes: Transition Class from Strong to Tom Herman. Like Strong, Herman only added one new signee that would eventually become an NFL player - Sam Cosmi.
    2018 (27 signees/11 NFL players) - DB, Caden Sterns; LB, DeMarvion Overshown; DT, Keondre Coburn; DL, Moro Ojomo; DE, Joe Ossai; CB, D'Shawn Jamison; RB, Keontay Ingram (transfer out); OL, Christian Jones; K, Cameron Dicker; DB, Jalen Green (transfer out); QB Cameron Rising (transfer out) (Players in italics have yet to be selected in NFL draft and make an NFL team)
    Evaluation Rate: 11/27 = 40.74%
    Hit Rate: 8/27 = 29.63%
    Notes: This is the class that should have helped put Tom Herman over the top. Despite recruiting rankings to the contrary, he and his staff simply couldn't put two good classes together back-to-back.
    2019 (28 signees/6 NFL players) - WR, Bru McCoy (transfer out); WR, Jordan Whittington; S, Tyler Owens (transfer out); RB, Roschon Johnson; TE, Jared Wiley (transfer out); DT, T'Vondre Sweat
    Evaluation Rate: 6/28 = 21.43%
    Hit Rate: 3/28 = 10.71%
    Notes: Look at the lowest Hit Rate of the decade. Even Mack Brown's last classes didn't miss on this many. This is part of the reason why Steve Sarkisian was saddled early with a lack of NFL talent. Attrition clearly played a role here but so did evaluation.
    2020 (22 signees/8 NFL players) - RB, Bijan Robinson; DL, Alfred Collins; ATH, Ja'Quinden Jackson (transfer out); OL, Jake Majors; DB, Jahdae Barron; LB, Jaylan Ford; DB Brenden Schooler; WR Tarik Black
    Evaluation Rate: 8/22 =36.36%
    Hit Rate: 7/22 = 25.93%
    Notes: A solid class. The evaluation and hit rate are buoyed by the additions of Schooler and Black as transfers and Black never really did much as a Longhorn.
    **
    NFL Hit Rates of elite programs should average in the 25-35% range, so that's what Texas should focus on achieving. Yet the Horns matched or surpassed that figure just three times in 10 years. And the Horns barely averaged 25% from just an "Evaluation Rate", which doesn't take into account attrition/transfers.
    Overall, poor depth and lack of top-end talent riddled Texas for much of the 2010s.
    So did recruiting inconsistency. Poor years for Strong in 2016 and Herman in 2019 perhaps showed that neither could sustain success at Texas.
    10-year average Evaluation Rate: 25.56%
    10-year average Hit Rate: 19.45%
    **
    A quick look into the 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes thus far.
    First, like his predecessors, Sark added at least one NFL player in his first month on the job in the 2021 class - Xavier Worthy. However, Sark also added Keilan Robinson who has a chance at the NFL as well. (Note to athletic administrators who make coaching changes: adding NFL players late in the process is just unlikely no matter who the coach is.)
    As for the 2022 class, Sark's group looks on par if not better than both Herman's and Strong's second classes, which attracted eight and 11 NFL players, respectively.
    The third class is where Sark diverges from Herman and Strong. While both Strong and Herman spiraled downward with third class, Sark is drastically different.
    His third recruiting class was nothing short of outstanding. In fact, early returns suggest his 2023 recruiting class will be Sark's best yet.
     
    CJ Vogel
    The Latest on 2026 Four-star Bastrop DL Tiki Hola
    Made the quick drive over to Bastrop to catch a workout this morning. There is plenty of talent coming up that I will get into later in the week, but 2026 defensive lineman Tiki Hola is the prize at the moment in Texas circles.
    Hola visited Texas during the January 20 Junior Day, and while Texas had yet to make a hiring at the DL spot, Hola spent a lot of time with Coach Johnny Nansen and came away from the afternoon with rave reviews.
    "I loved it," Hola said of his time on campus. "I got to meet with Coach Sark and talk to him for a little bit. I got to know him a little bit and he got to know me a little bit. Plus the basketball game, it was just a fun day in general."
    The 6-foot-3 and 280-pound defensive lineman has become one of the jewels in the Austin area for the 2026 cycle and Texas is going to be a player here. Coach Sarkisian stopped by in the winter to catch a workout and is expected to return in the spring – most likely with Coach Kenny Baker.
    "(Coach Sarkisian) is a great coach," Hola said. "But he is more than coach, he is a great person in general. He tries to genuinely get to know you and get a good conversation out of you."
    Coach Baker had not yet been hired when Hola visited Austin, but the big takeaway from the trip was actually the time he spent with coach Johnny Nansen. Hola was originally born in California before moving to Bastrop at a young age, plus he is cousins with former Alabama LB Henry To'oto'o.
    Texas has been a player here for a while. The initial offer came last June following a camp during the summer. 
    Since January, Auburn, Miami, Nebraska, Texas A&M and USC have all gotten involved. 
    Recruiting is really beginning to take off for Hola, yet the spring visit schedule is completely wide open. He mentioned a possible return to Austin for a spring practice or two, but has nothing locked in for Texas or anyone else for the time being.
    This was my first time watching Hola in workouts and I was thoroughly impressed. For someone as big as he is at that age, there is so much fluidity in movements and plenty of flexibility. 
    Hola played over the ball straight up last year, though you can expect many coaches to recruit him as a future 3-tech or 4i, which is more right over the guard/inside the tackle. One of the better interior defensive linemen in the state and only a 35-minute drive from campus.
    Gerry Hamilton
    Four-star linebacker target Elijah "Bo" Barnes talks Texas Longhorns
    Dallas, Texas - One of the top defensive targets on the board for the Texas Longhorns in the 2025 cycle is Dallas (Texas) Skyline High linebacker Elijah "Bo" Barnes. 
    Barnes, 6-2.5 and nearing 230 pounds, was offered by Texas May 10, 2023. Since that time, the DFW area star has been on campus multiple times with the last visit January 20 for Junior Day. 
    OnTexasFootball took in Skyline High track practice Monday and caught up with Barnes after the workout. 
    "Texas is one of those top schools for me," Barnes told OnTexasFootball Monday. "They will be in my top 10, I will say that. Texas has been recruiting me hard for the last year and a half. Texas is one of those up and coming schools. I feel like they will go for a National Championship run again this year coming up. Texas is a great school in general. Some of my coaches went through Texas, you know. They tell me great things."
    Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian had a call with Barnes last night around 6:30 p.m. The messages heading into that call have been about the person, player and fit in the Longhorns' defense. 
    "He just says he wants me. And things like that. They see me as a great fit in their defense. A leader in their defense. A vocal leader in their defense. He was telling me stuff like that. And that I'm a great guy, a great athlete and the sky's the limit."
    New Co-DC and linebackers coach Johnny Nansen has made a strong impression early in just a few conversations. 
    "Coach (Johnny) Nansen, I love Coach Nansen. He's a great guy in general. Down to earth. He knows the game of football. And I do feel like if I go to Texas, he can pour a lot into me. In an NFL type play style. He can teach me formation, down and distance and the personnel's and stuff like that."
    Barnes believes Texas is ready for the move to the SEC, and in part because of the culture created by Sarkisian and staff. 
    "It's made a big jump (with prospects). How they did this year. I know they are going to excel this coming season. Texas is going to be fine. They have a lot of great athletes that committed and signed that are there right now. I feel like Texas is one of those schools to be talked about 20 years from now. A great coaching staff they have, a great team they have and a great brotherhood they have there. A great bond. Just to be around everybody there."
    Barnes runs on the 4x100 and 4x200 meter relay teams for the Raiders. He will also run the open 100 meters this spring with a goal of 11.1, which would be ultra impressive at 225-230 pounds. 
     
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