Lam Dinh

# of NFL Draft Picks by School (last 10 years, 2014-2023) 1. Alabama (90) 2. Ohio St. (78) 3. LSU (73) 4. Georgia (68) 5. Clemson (55) 6. Michigan (54) 7. Oklahoma (51) 8. Penn St. (49) 9. Notre Dame (48) 10. Auburn/UCLA (42) Texas: 26 (including 2 seasons with 0 players drafted). Takeaway: This 2024 draft of 11 players surpassed the previous high of 8 players (only counting drafts since 1997 when the NFL draft changed to 7 rounds). If we are to be a Top 5 national program consistently, we should expect to average ~7 players drafted per year over a sustained period of time.

The best thing that comes from this news is that the current mid-December signing window moves to the first week of December, clearly separating the Transfer Window with the HS Recruiting Period. This will allow coaching staffs to evaluate Transfer Window needs after setting the roster with "early" HS additions. This should lead to a cleaner evaluation process (i.e. HS kids with offers are less likely to get them pulled because of transfer additions, as coaches can more accurately forecast scholarship availability). I'm a little less clear about what adding a June signing window actually does from a final roster perspective. In this past recruiting cycle, 85% of players signed in the December period (vs. 15% in February period), so the de-facto national signing day has already become December. With these new rules, my guess is that the ~85% of kids that sign in December will now be spread across both the June and December signing periods. This benefits coaches not having to worry about some kids flip flopping in-season. However, as Gerry mentioned today on OTF, most Texas coaches don't recruit during the season anyways, so I'm not sure if this actually saves them any time - but I get the mental relief of knowing a kid is officially signed. In the end, I can see this change benefiting college programs that end up underachieving in season, because the players who signed in June would technically still be committed to that school (assuming there is an ironclad structure to prevent easy de-commitments). However, that is likely a one-time benefit since if you are constantly underachieving, you aren't going to be getting top recruits. For a program that is on the rise like Texas, I don't currently expect the new structure to lead to a materially better roster or recruiting advantage for Texas.

Great post, I've been thinking about what's an appropriate benchmark for knowing Texas is back in terms of elite talent development. Looks like the 25-35% NFL hit rate is the number to target and monitor. Similarly, I also looked at the records of all other in-state major college football programs in that same 2011-2020 year time frame vs. # of NFL draft picks (only including players drafted, not un-drafted free agent signings). Takeaway: While Texas had more NFL picks than any other Texas college football program in those 10 years (despite being "down" overall as a program), this did not translate into a better on field product, with Texas having the second lowest win % during that time. Unsurprisingly, the moniker of "UT can't develop talent" was proven to be correct during this dark period of Texas football. 2011-2020 Wins Losses Win % NFL Picks Texas Tech 56 66 46% 27 Texas 70 59 54% 41 Baylor 78 48 62% 25 Houston 78 46 63% 17 TCU 80 46 63% 30 A&M 84 43 66% 31

Biggest question on Trey Moore is if he can replicate his success against Power 5 competition. I took a look at his stats against Power 5 opponents (and Top 25 ranked non-power 5 schools) he played against in the last 2 years. * He has played 6 games in the last 2 years against Power 5 and Top 25 ranked non-power 5 teams * 3.5 sacks and 21 tackles over those 6 games * That would translate to 7 sacks and 42 tackles in a full game season Takeaway: There is reason to believe Trey could still reach that 7+ sacks per year despite stepping up to play bigger competition in the SEC.

Great show fellas! My top 5 most important players: 1) Quinn Ewers - If he takes the next step to a legitimate top-3 Heisman candidate, we can win it all. He was probably the ~30th best player in college football this year, so he still has a ways to go. 2) Sydir Mitchell - His goal should be to push Vernon Broughton out of the starting rotation. If he does that and earns a starting spot next to Alfred Collins, our DT issue will be solved. 3) “New” Edge (Trey Moore, Colin Simmons, Colton Vasek) - Despite a tougher challenge with SEC offensive lines, success would be if the whole unit eclipses the total sack numbers from last year in a tougher conference. That should be the bar, and we have the talent to meet that bar. 4) Cam Williams - If he earns the starting RT job and performs even close to the level of Christian Jones, our overall O-line will be better this year - solidifying a group that will keep Quinn on his feet. 5) Anthony Hill - A lot depends on the DT replacements and edge players stepping up to compete in the SEC (see #2 and #3 above). However, Ant Hill might end up being our best pass rusher, and if his run defense continues to improves, he can really help offset those question marks at DE/edge. He could be in Derrick Johnson territory when his career is said and done.

While this kid looks to have talent, I think Texas needs to focus more on winning recruiting in state. While we had an incredible 2023 CFP run, we haven’t pulled away (yet) from the other programs in terms of fencing off the state of TX to dominate HS recruiting. 2024 Top 50 HS Recruits from the state of Texas (per On3): Texas - 7, OU - 6, A&M - 6, LSU - 5, Tech - 5. Takeaway: While we had the most recruits (7) in the top 50 in state, Texas Tech also had 5 and OU/A&M had 6 each, meaning we haven’t pulled way ahead yet in terms of in state dominance in recruiting. In 2009, coming off a national championship appearance, UT had 12 of the top 50 Texas HS players (including most of the top 10) - that was dominance in terms of in state recruiting. It’s great that Sark has CA connections and UT can now recruit nationally well, but I think we will need to dominate Texas HS recruiting like in the early 2000s if we are truly going to be “back” for the long run, especially as we enter the SEC.

It looks like we need another ~2 interior DL from the portal for this upcoming 2024 season, even if they are not immediate starter caliber players. As defensive linemen have a longer development curve than other positions, the cupboard looks a little bare for the 2025 season with only 5 scholarship players (none of which have played any meaningful snaps as we sit here in February of 2024). I think the Spring Portal will be important to snag at least 1-2 developmental DLs even if we can't land a big fish of the Mason Graham variety. Remember, there are usually fewer big body DLs in the transfer portal than other positions like WR. We can't sustainably expect to pluck DLs from the transfer portal to make up for gaps in HS recruiting. Case in point, On3 had 24 4-star WRs in the portal this last cycle, but only 7 4-star DLs available. Big difference in supply of big men.