Lam Dinh

Great post, I've been thinking about what's an appropriate benchmark for knowing Texas is back in terms of elite talent development. Looks like the 25-35% NFL hit rate is the number to target and monitor. Similarly, I also looked at the records of all other in-state major college football programs in that same 2011-2020 year time frame vs. # of NFL draft picks (only including players drafted, not un-drafted free agent signings). Takeaway: While Texas had more NFL picks than any other Texas college football program in those 10 years (despite being "down" overall as a program), this did not translate into a better on field product, with Texas having the second lowest win % during that time. Unsurprisingly, the moniker of "UT can't develop talent" was proven to be correct during this dark period of Texas football. 2011-2020 Wins Losses Win % NFL Picks Texas Tech 56 66 46% 27 Texas 70 59 54% 41 Baylor 78 48 62% 25 Houston 78 46 63% 17 TCU 80 46 63% 30 A&M 84 43 66% 31

Biggest question on Trey Moore is if he can replicate his success against Power 5 competition. I took a look at his stats against Power 5 opponents (and Top 25 ranked non-power 5 schools) he played against in the last 2 years. * He has played 6 games in the last 2 years against Power 5 and Top 25 ranked non-power 5 teams * 3.5 sacks and 21 tackles over those 6 games * That would translate to 7 sacks and 42 tackles in a full game season Takeaway: There is reason to believe Trey could still reach that 7+ sacks per year despite stepping up to play bigger competition in the SEC.

Great show fellas! My top 5 most important players: 1) Quinn Ewers - If he takes the next step to a legitimate top-3 Heisman candidate, we can win it all. He was probably the ~30th best player in college football this year, so he still has a ways to go. 2) Sydir Mitchell - His goal should be to push Vernon Broughton out of the starting rotation. If he does that and earns a starting spot next to Alfred Collins, our DT issue will be solved. 3) “New” Edge (Trey Moore, Colin Simmons, Colton Vasek) - Despite a tougher challenge with SEC offensive lines, success would be if the whole unit eclipses the total sack numbers from last year in a tougher conference. That should be the bar, and we have the talent to meet that bar. 4) Cam Williams - If he earns the starting RT job and performs even close to the level of Christian Jones, our overall O-line will be better this year - solidifying a group that will keep Quinn on his feet. 5) Anthony Hill - A lot depends on the DT replacements and edge players stepping up to compete in the SEC (see #2 and #3 above). However, Ant Hill might end up being our best pass rusher, and if his run defense continues to improves, he can really help offset those question marks at DE/edge. He could be in Derrick Johnson territory when his career is said and done.

While this kid looks to have talent, I think Texas needs to focus more on winning recruiting in state. While we had an incredible 2023 CFP run, we haven’t pulled away (yet) from the other programs in terms of fencing off the state of TX to dominate HS recruiting. 2024 Top 50 HS Recruits from the state of Texas (per On3): Texas - 7, OU - 6, A&M - 6, LSU - 5, Tech - 5. Takeaway: While we had the most recruits (7) in the top 50 in state, Texas Tech also had 5 and OU/A&M had 6 each, meaning we haven’t pulled way ahead yet in terms of in state dominance in recruiting. In 2009, coming off a national championship appearance, UT had 12 of the top 50 Texas HS players (including most of the top 10) - that was dominance in terms of in state recruiting. It’s great that Sark has CA connections and UT can now recruit nationally well, but I think we will need to dominate Texas HS recruiting like in the early 2000s if we are truly going to be “back” for the long run, especially as we enter the SEC.

It looks like we need another ~2 interior DL from the portal for this upcoming 2024 season, even if they are not immediate starter caliber players. As defensive linemen have a longer development curve than other positions, the cupboard looks a little bare for the 2025 season with only 5 scholarship players (none of which have played any meaningful snaps as we sit here in February of 2024). I think the Spring Portal will be important to snag at least 1-2 developmental DLs even if we can't land a big fish of the Mason Graham variety. Remember, there are usually fewer big body DLs in the transfer portal than other positions like WR. We can't sustainably expect to pluck DLs from the transfer portal to make up for gaps in HS recruiting. Case in point, On3 had 24 4-star WRs in the portal this last cycle, but only 7 4-star DLs available. Big difference in supply of big men.