There’s going to be a mass migration of players from the non-P2 conferences into the P2 conferences (SEC, Big Ten) this Spring portal cycle.
The Spring portal is unique in that SEC teams can’t poach talent from other SEC teams (lest the player have to sit out the 2025 season), so all the SEC teams looking to plug talent gaps in their rosters will need to look outside the SEC to source those players. Of course, an SEC team can also poach from a Big Ten school (and vice versa) however the schools in these two conferences that actually care about football also typically have enough deep pockets to ward off fellow NIL suitors (tOSU, Michigan, PSU, Oregon, et al).
So, where is the next level of talented football players that are available to be poached outside the P2? Well, numerically speaking, it is the ACC and Big12. These two conferences have more talent per capita on their rosters than G5 schools, and fewer of these schools can compete dollar-for-dollar on NIL deals with the SEC schools (note: there are a few exceptions..Tech, Clemson, Miami, etc).
It’s interesting to me that there are some glaring talent gaps across the rosters of some of the perceived national powers (UGA, Texas, Ohio St, Michigan, Oregon, Tenn) that really need to be addressed in the Spring portal season. This dynamic, when combined with the timing of the House settlement, is going to set off an orgy of obscene NIL battles got talent.
I wonder about Texas’ willingness to engage in the upcoming bloodbath. I support Sark in not wanting to engage in one-time silly NIL deals which may damage the culture and locker room, but I also acknowledge that our competitors will capture talented players that our roster needs to plug gaps (particularly at WR, OL, and TE). Should be interesting to see this play out.