bierce

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/21913973/louisvilles-pitino-had-controversial-hawaii-ties/

If we aren't hiring Wade, then we surely aren't hiring a 72 year old who has been in trouble with the NCAA since he was the interim coach for Hawaii in the 70s.

I should have mentioned Syracuse @ Pitt (51) Pitt was in the Pomeroy top 15 after torching WVU, going to OT against Wiscy, and beating tOSU in November. Then it lost by 33 @ Mississippi State, and it has never gotten well. Hasn't beaten a tournament team since. Split with bubble UNC, but lost to bubble SMU by 20, lost to bubble WF, and was clubbed at home by out of tournament UVa. Very little meat left on the schedule--a q1 game @ Louisville and q2 games at Notre Dame and NC State. Probably has to win them all at this point.

I guess I should have mentioned Syracuse @ Pitt (51) Pitt was in the Pomeroy top 15 after torching WVU, going to OT against Wiscy, and beating tOSU in November. Then it lost by 33 @ Mississippi State, and it has never gotten well. Hasn't beaten a tournament team since. Split with bubble UNC, but lost to bubble SMU by 20, lost to bubble WF, and was clubbed at home by out of tournament UVa. Very little meat left on the schedule--a q1 game @ Louisville and q2 games at Notre Dame and NC State. Probably has to win them all at this point.

But there are still all those fish in the streams in the Pacific Northwest. Not happening.

Cronin sounded happy to be at UCLA in a press conference yesterday. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/on-the-verge-of-win-no-500-mick-cronin-indicates-hes-content-at-ucla/ar-AA1zhr9Q

A lot of bubble teams in action tonight. Utah beat KSU last night. Both on life support. Both need to win at least 4 of last 5, get a signature win in there, and win a game in the conference tournament to have a chance. Both have a single signature win over Kansas, but take away Kansas's November win over Duke, and it profiles like an 8/9 seed. Since beating Duke, Kansas is 1-6 against the top 50, and two of the games were at home and one of those was against DeVries-less WVU. Tonight's games: OU (52) @ Florida (4) Porter Moser's bunch is 1-7 in q1 games in conference, the sole win being a one possession win @ bubble Arky. This is the first of a 6 game stretch of q1 games leading into the conference tournament. 72% of bracketinkers who updated since the weekend have OU as an 11 seed. Butler @ Xavier (53) Xavier is the team I think is most likely to climb back into the field. It currently has only 3 votes from the 48 bracketwits who have updated since the weekend, but it is 16-10, only 1-8 in q1 but 6-2 in q2, no bad losses unless you count a blowout in November to top 20 Michigan a bad loss, and several of the q1 losses were very close. A chances for another q1 win if Creighton climbs back into the top 30. But Xavier can't afford to lose games like these, even with a chance to get revenge @ Butler in two weeks. Villanova (54) @ UConn I just don't understand Villanova being Xavier's neighbor in NET. Take three of Xavier's q1 losses and turn them into a q3 win and 2 q3 losses. Take one of Xavier's q2 wins and turn it into a loss. Take one of Xavier's q4 wins and turn it into a loss, an unbelievably hideous loss at home to 239 Columbia. Now you have Villanova's record. Doesn't make much sense, does it? Nova has one q1 game left on the schedule--@ Marquette. Kansas @ BYU (36) I mentioned earlier in the thread how BYU lacks signature wins. This would sort of be one, but I'll be tempted to put Kansas on the bubble watch if it loses tonight. Fresno State @ San Diego State (50) Not the sort of game SDSU can afford to lose. Fresno State is 1-14 in conference and NET 276. Would be a horrendous q4 loss. Would be a q4 loss heading into a game @ Utah State, and conference doormat Air Force is the only MWC team SDSU has beaten above 4000 feet in two years.

One more thing about Pitino, and those who complain about non-conference schedule being stuffed with creampuffs will like this--he schedules salty. 2020-21 was kind of an aberration because off season was truncated due to waking up from COVID, so it really isn't a good measure, but even then Pitino scheduled three games against top 100 mid-majors. 2019-20 Ten OOC games. Six were against P5 schools, including 2 away, another in the enemy's state, and one on a neutral floor. Only one game against a Pomeroy 250+ team. 2018-19 Eleven OOC games. Five were against P5 schools. Only 3 were against Pomeroy 200+. 2017-18 Thirteen OOC games. Four against P5 schools. Only 3 games against Pomeroy 240+. 2016-17 Thirteen OOC games. Four against P5 school. Only 2 games against Pomeroy 210+.

WCC has Gonzaga and St. Mary's, the two usual suspects, and nothing else worthy of an at large bid at present. San Fran is NET 60 but only a 1-5 q1 record, the win being a 65-64 home win over St. Mary's. It has a game to play against Gonzaga and visits Oregon State, so there is some room for hope, but it has to win both of those or win one and beat either St. Mary's or Gonzaga in the WCC tournament to have much of a chance. Santa Clara is NET 55 and has a 2-4 q1 record including a great win @ Gonzaga, but it has 5 OOC losses, none to teams in the field, and it has 3 q3 losses, including home against NDSU. Once again St. Mary's has a better NET ranking than its record would support, and the committee has passed it over in the past despite a high NET ranking. Maybe the home win over Gonzaga, neutral win over Nebraska, ass-kicking of USC on a neutral floor, and sweep over Santa Clara will be enough to protect it this year. Upshot--two teams. A third only someone other than Gonzaga or St. Mary's wins the WCC tournament.

I wouldn't sleep on South Carolina. It lost to Auburn and Florida in one possession games. It lost to Mississippi State in OT. It lost to Mississippi in a come from ahead in the last minute fashion. It lost by 4 to A&M. Alabama was the only team to dispatch it easily in Columbia.

The other conferences that could cause trouble if the favorite loses the conference tournament. A-10 A decade ago, the A-10 was trying to position itself as a higher than just mid-major conference in basketball. In 2014 it had 8 teams finish in the Pomeroy top 100, put 6 teams into the tournament, and Archie Miller took 11 seed Dayton to the Elite Eight, even though the rest of the conference managed just one win. Miller and Shaka Smart were coaches P6 schools were drooling over, and Dan Hurley had recently taken over at Rhode Island. But that was then. 2021 was the last season in which the A-10 had two teams worthy of consideration for an at large bid, but it has usually managed to get a second team anyway, because the best team manages to lose the conference tournament. This year we're looking at VCU as the only legit candidate for an at large bid. It is actually in second place in the standings behind George Mason right now, but it will host GMU on Saturday. It is 1-1 in q1 games, with no q1 left until conference tournament. It is 5-3 in q2 with at most two q2 games before the conference tournament. Why are there no other legit candidates for at-large bids from the A-10? Answer--Dayton suffered bad conference losses and the rest sucked in OOC games. George Mason's best win was a road win over Pomeroy 146 James Madison, and it lost to Pomeroy 200 Central Michigan at home and @ 150 East Carolina. St. Joe's is the other top 100 team, and it beat Tech in Brooklyn and Nova, but it lost at home to Central Connecticut, Princeton, and Charleston, 3 q3 losses that are on the verge of becoming q4. Even VCU while it did beat 71 Colorado State on a neutral floor, it lost @ 38 New Mexico and on neutral floors to 204 Seton Hall and 74 Nevada. Dayton had great wins over Marquette and UConn, but it lost to UNC, ISU, and Cincy and managed no true road wins OOC. It then managed to lose in conference @ 184 UMass, @ 110 George Washington, @ 99 St. Bonaventure, and at home to both VCU and George Mason. So I don't see any A-10 teams earning an at large bid unless VCU and Dayton beat all other comers and split the season finale and a conference tournament showdown. George Mason won't survive losing to VCU in the regular season and losing in the conference tournament. If George Mason beats VCU, then it is highly unlikely it could play both Dayton and VCU in the conference tournament and wind up 3-1 against them. I don't think 2-1 against them will earn it a tournament bid when it has nothing else of note on its resume. In sum, if VCU wins out the regular season but loses in the A-10 tournament, then the A-10 is likely to have two entrants. Otherwise it is likely to be a one bid conference.

OK, maybe here is the boil on Pitino's record. Shane Douma-Sanchez, a non-scholarship player, recently sued UNM and Pitino, claiming the coaching staff turned a blind eye after he reported he was punched in the face and then in a previously injured arm after an argument with teammate about seating arrangements on the flight to Palm Springs. https://www.koat.com/article/lobos-basketball-civil-rights-suit-unm-pitino-hazing/63314185

Only game that could affect the bubble tonight is KSU @ Utah. KSU is done with a loss. It can get back in the mix with a win followed by a few more wins, but it was within single digits for less than a minute in the second half against BYU on Saturday.

UNC is the last team to have received at least one vote in the matrix after Saturday's games. UNC NET 47, 15-11, 1-10 (ouch) q1, 5-0 q2, q3 loss at home to Stanford. UNC will get credit for being UNC and having the 6th best OOC SOS. Some of its losses are about as good as losses can get (by 3 @ Kansas, OT against Michigan State on a neutral floor, by 6 to Florida on a neutral-ish floor). It could finish strong, having 4 of its 6 remaining games at home, but the only q1 game in there is hosting Duke, and it hasn't beaten anyone better than Notre Dame on the road, and Virginia is a pretty hot team right now. That is it for anyone with a vote in the matrix from anyone who updated since Saturday's games. I think KSU, Pitt, and Nova deserve a little mention, so I'll get to them later in the week. If KSU loses at Utah tonight, maybe I'll skip it. I'll also take a look at some conferences that may or may not have teams that deserve an at large bid but would cause a squeeze on the field if they lose in conference tournaments. VCU, I'm talking to you.

Xavier NET 54, 16-10, 1-8 q1, 6-2 q2, no bad losses. I think Xavier has a chance because it is hot, has a favorable remaining schedule, could get to 20 wins, and has a home game against Creighton and a road game against Butler. Both of those are q2 games right now, but they are really good q2 games. Two of the q1 losses are OT losses @ St. John's and @ UConn. Another is a one possession loss at home to Marquette. OOC SOS middling. Two years ago, Xavier finished pretty strongly under Miller. Last year, not so much. Actually not at all.

I think I've made my view clear about SMU for weeks, but in a nutshell--I don't buy it. SMU NET 40, 19-6, but 0-4 q1, 5-2 q2. There's nothing on the resume except the NET ranking that says tournament team. It did recently beat Pitt at home by 20, but Pitt is 1-7 in its last 8 games against top 100 teams. Just that one win over a team in the top 80. Huge losses to Duke and Louisville at home. 15 point loss to UNC in Chapel Hill. OOC loss by 11 to well out of tourney contention Butler. Just . . . no. Ok, if it wins out, beating Clemson along the way, then maybe.

We'll start with the teams on the outside looking in with WF since I think it might be on the inside looking out right now. Wake Forest NET 58, 17-9, 2-6 q1, 5-0 q2, one q3 loss (home to Florida State). Huge win in November over Michigan in Greensboro, which is a neutral site game for NET purposes, even if it was played only 25 miles from WF campus. Not much else on the resume, but it has swept the other ACC pretenders Pitt, UNC, and SMU, but it won single possession games at home against UNC and Pitt. I've said before that I think WF profiles a lot like Virginia last year. Virginia got the nod over Pitt despite a much worse NET ranking mainly because it finished third in the conference. Well, WF is only tied for 4th in the loss column and unlikely to move up. It could move down if SMU can beat Clemson in Dallas, but SMU is 0-3 against top 50 teams in the conference, losing the games by a combined 77 points, and two of them at home. And now you should be getting a pretty good idea of how weak the bubble is. I do think Xavier has a chance to climb back in, and KSU could if it goes on a 5 game winning streak to end the year, so I will chug along.

The last team currently on the 11 line is Georgia. It's easier for me to handle Georgia than WF after Arky because I don't have to switch more than one Kenpom page. Georgia NET 39, 16-10, 2-10 q1, 3-0 q2. That's a problem. It hasn't won a conference road game yet and has 3 of its 5 remaining games on the road. That's another problem. It is 2-8 over its last 10 games, with home games over So Car and LSU being the only wins. That's another problem. Tyrin Lawrence missed the last two games after suffering a non-contact leg injury against MSU. That's another problem, but it does have the week off, so maybe Lawrence can get healed. Next two games are @ Auburn and home against Florida. Florida beat it by 30 in Gainesville, but it played Broome-less Auburn to the last second while losing in Athens. Trending wrong, hurt, bad quad showing. I doubt it will remain in the field. In fact, I think it is already replaced by WF.

Arkansas NET 42, 15-10, 3-8 q1, 2-1 q2. Whether Arky makes it depends more on which Arky shows up over the next 3 weeks than where it is now. Is it the team that beat Kentucky and Texas on the road and rallied to fight Bama to within 4 points in Fayetteville? Or is it the team that lost 6 of 7 to start the conference season including @ LSU and home to OU? It has chances to get more q1 wins. @ Auburn would be a huge win. Home against Missouri is more likely. Home against Texas and against Mississippi State could be q1 wins depending how we and they finish the year. But 4-10 in q1-q2 isn't a good look. Neither is 2-8 against the certain entrants into the field, but 2-0 against the bubble definitely helps.

BYU NET 36, 17-8, 3-6 q1, 4-2 q2. No bad losses. BYU profiles a lot like Texas, just without any guys missing games. No one who plays double digit minutes has missed any game except against OOC dreck. Won 6 of its last 8. But . . . what's the signature win? Over NET 28 Baylor at home in OT? @ DeVries-less WVU? @ NET 75 and in a 6 game losing streak UCF is the 3rd q1 win. BYU could easily be down to one q1 win by the time the committee makes its selections. But it has 4 q1 games left on the schedule, but @ ISU and @ Arizona will be murder. Home against KU and @ ASU look more winnable, especially since KU lost its last three road games (Baylor, KSU, and Utah).

SDSU is right behind Texas in the matrix. NET 50, but 4-4 in q1, 3-1 in q12, 2-1 in q3. Lost to UNLV at home for that q3 loss. Beat Houston on a neutral floor for a huge statement win. Recently finished season sweep over Boise State to make the MWC a likely three bid league while nearly burying the Broncos for tournament purposes despite BSU having a better net ranking. (I know I'd prefer a team that beat Houston on a neutral floor over a team that beat Clemson and St. Mary's in its own state, not to mention BSU having the q4 loss to BC. BSU has a chance with home games against UNM, Utah State, and Colorado State left, but it needs to get it together.) SDSU hosts UNM next week in what will be a must watch game for me (see my comments about Pitino on the coaching changes thread). It also goes to Utah State this weekend for its last q1 game this year and a chance to get back into second place in the conference.

The other team currently on the 10 line in the matrix is Nebraska, and it should be safe. It gets a 9 seed from about 1/3 of the bracketizonks who updated since Saturday, and winning on the road at Northwestern only strengthens its position. Weak Net at 46 due to three losses by staggering amounts (37, 36, and 28), but NU is 6-7 in q1 games and 3-1 in q2. It has one q3 loss at home to Rutgers, but with a schedule that intense that can happen. All Nebraska probably has to do is avoid a skid of losing 5 straight games like it suffered in January when it lost 6 straight. A home win over Michigan or a road win over tOSU at this point would just guarantee a better seed.

WVU is a lot like OU. Strong start and having the season go bad over the last 6 weeks, but WVU does have the season ending injury to DeVries to thank for that. Net 44. 15-10, 5-7 q1, 2-3 q2. Beat Gonzaga and Arizona but lost to Louisville in the Bahamas tournament that played out nearly upside down. Lost by 24 @ Pitt in November. Beat KU in Lawrence to start the conference season. 5-8 since with the home win over ISU being the only good win, and just 2-6 since winning that game. OK, it won @ Cincy. Big whoop. Meanwhile, it has lost to tourney outsiders TCU and Arizona State, the ASU loss coming in Morgantown. It has 8 fewer points than possessions in conference play, so you can see what a struggle it is for WVU to score since DeVries was lost. Four wins against the field looks good, very good when you consider they are all against top 20 teams. Four losses to teams that won't make the field looks very bad. WVU has only 2 q1 games left on its schedule, and both are going to be very tough (@ Tech, and @ BYU and BYU is currently fighting for a spot in the field). This could go either way for WVU. It is likely to finish between 9th and 11th in the conference, meaning it will have a first round conference tournament game against Colorado, OSU, or ASU. A loss there could scuttle the 'Eers. Upcoming home games against Cincy and TCU and road game @ Utah will have a big effect on conference tournament seeding.

I am definitely going to watch UNM @ SDSU on FS1 on 2/25.

Chances are good if we get Kaluma back, but chances are chances.