SDSU won 83-60 last night in a q4 game. Yawn. But it goes to Utah State on Saturday and comes home to face UNM on Tuesday. Big games. A split would guarantee the Aztecs a bid. Lose them both and they'll start to sweat, mainly because they'll be 0-4 against MWC 1 and 2. I still think at that point they would profile stronger than a lot of the teams on the bubble. The neutral site win over Houston gives them a lot of goodwill, and don't laugh when I say beating UC San Diego was a good win.
Wednesday's games
It's Wednesday, so there are a bunch
VCU (35) hosts UMass in a q4 game. Has to win that to keep status as a team to be considered for an at large bid.
Nebraska (46) @ PSU (80) Nebraska losing would be like Texas losing @ South Carolina. PSU has played most teams close at home.
Vandy (42) @ Kentucky I'm guessing someone is looking for major revenge, but Kentucky will be without Butler, Robinson, and Kriisa.
Cincy (45) @ WVU (44) Consider it an elimination game. Cincy because it is on the outside and has few chances left to make a statement (home against Baylor, @ Hou and good luck with the last one). WVU because it is trending way, way wrong and follows this game by going to Tech and then on to Provo to face a hot BYU team.
SMU (40) @ Notre Dame (out of contention, but the coach knows how to make microphones suffer) SMU can't lose this, but a win won't help it. Only beating Clemson this weekend can help.
NC State @ UNC (50) UNC is nearly dead in the water. 1-10 q1, 5-0 q2, a q3 loss at home to Stanford. Can't lose this. Only 1 q1 game left, hosting Duke in season finale. Only 1 q2 game left, visiting UVa. Everything else is q3 (or q4 like hosting Miami).
Oregon @ Iowa One team has to pretty much lose out to miss the tournament, and the other has to pretty much win out to get in. I think you can figure out which is which.
Arky (43) @ Auburn (overall 1 seed) Arky might have to wait to the home stand against Missouri and Texas to solidify its position in the field. Also will have a game @ Vandy and host MSU to end the season, so it can still move up.
San Jose State @ Utah State (38) Since Tim Miles arrived at SJSU for the 2021-22 season, it has won one game over 4000 feet in conference against a team not named Air Force. USU will next host SDSU before traveling to Boise State and Colorado State to try to cement second place in the conference and a tournament bid. It should be safe right now. It won @ St. Mary's and picked up 3 q2 wins on neutral floors in November.
UNM (37) @ Boise State (47) UNM is 3-1 q1 and 8-1 q2. It does have the barely q3 loss @ SJSU and the barely q4 OT loss at home to NMSU, but it should be safe at this point barring a complete collapse, thanks to neutral site wins over UCLA and USC and a home 14 win over VCU. Of coures, UNM does have the advantage of playing at altitude. The fact that the playing surface at The Pit is 37 feet below street level doesn't do anything to offset the fact Albuquerque sits slightly higher than Denver. Boise State is in trouble. It is 0-5 so far against the other top teams in the MWC, so it needs a home win or two here or against Colorado State and SDSU. It probably needs to win all three because losses to BC and in its own home town to Wazzu are pretty bad.