Hey everyone, Payton here, intern with On Texas Football. With the new CFP Rankings dropping last night, I wanted to see how the landscape shapes up, compiling the teams into tiers, with their remaining schedule where applicable. Here is where Texas stands and who Longhorn fans should be rooting against the rest of the way:

Texas sits at No. 6 with a 7-2 record. Here is the top 12 as it stands: Georgia, Utah, Alabama, UCLA, Notre Dame, Texas, Miami, Tennessee, Indiana, BYU, Kentucky and Texas Tech. The SEC has five of the top 11. The biggest mover was Indiana, which fell from No. 4 to No. 9 without playing a game.

The landscape is good for Texas but not safe. One of the 12 spots goes to the best Group of Five champion, and right now that is No. 24 Boise State. That means the real cut line sits at No. 11, and there are seven teams ranked between No. 8 and No. 21 that can still potentially play their way past a two or three loss Texas team in the committee's eyes.

ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the Longhorns a 76% chance to make the field. This Saturday can decide most of it.

If Texas beats LSU, that number jumps to 95% and LSU is finished at less than 1%. From there Texas could even drop one of its last two games and still sit around 85%.

If Texas loses to LSU, the number falls to 58% and LSU climbs back to 37%. Texas would be 7-3 with no room left for error. Winning the last two would get the Longhorns back to 82%, at that point the committee is comparing resumes, and what the teams below do starts to matter a lot.

I separated the teams in the race into tiers to make it more digestable.

All But Locks: Georgia, Utah, Alabama and Miami. All four sit at about 90% or better. They are not worth rooting against because one loss probably does not knock any of them out.

Likely In: UCLA, Notre Dame and Indiana. It would take an unlikely upset or two to push any of them out. UCLA is at 61% with Michigan and USC still on the schedule, and Indiana is at 75%, right around where Texas is sitting.

Threats: Tennessee, BYU, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, USC and LSU. These teams are fighting for the same spots Texas is. Their odds range from 14% for USC to 52% for Wake Forest, but most of them climb past 90% if they win out. Every one of them is a loss away from likely elimination.

Bubble Threats: Houston, Iowa, Oregon, South Carolina, Arizona and SMU. One more loss for each and Texas can stop worrying about them. Texas also holds the head to head over Ole Miss and Ohio State, who both already have three losses, which is why they weren't included.

Outside of Texas and LSU, here are the five games to watch this weekend.

Tennessee at Texas A&M. Root for the Aggies just this once. Tennessee dropping to the 9-3 cut line would ensure on Selection Sunday that they wouldn't take up a spot for us due to our H2H win. A loss drops the Vols from 49% to 23%, and ESPN is giving A&M about a 42% chance to do it.

Florida at Kentucky. Root for Florida. Kentucky is only at 30% now, but the Wildcats jump to 99% if they win out, so this is the week that can end it. A loss takes them to 10%. A Gators win also makes the Texas schedule look stronger, which might matter when comparing resumes in the committee room.

USC at Indiana. Root for Indiana. It might seem backwards to root for a team ranked near Texas, but a USC win wouldn't eliminate Indiana. Even with a loss to USC, Indiana would not be out of it. ESPN would still give the Hoosiers a 34% chance, and that climbs to 46% if they win their last two. The Trojans would jump from 14% to 48% with UCLA still on the schedule. An Indiana win drops USC to 4% and takes a team off the docket.

Wake Forest at SMU. Root for SMU. Wake has the best odds of any Threat at 52%, and Miami is the favorite to take the ACC’s automatic spot, which means Wake is competing with Texas for an at large bid. A loss drops the Demon Deacons to 20%.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State. Root for Oklahoma State. The No. 25 Cowboys are at home and favored by 3.5 points, so this is one a Threat is actually expected to lose. Tech is 8-1 and would climb to 96% by winning out (although that may imply a CCG win), but a loss cuts the Red Raiders from 40% to 18%. Also keep an eye on Baylor at BYU, where a loss would drop the Cougars from 41% to 5%.

Which of these five games matters most for Texas? And if the Longhorns lose Saturday, do you still think they get in?

just win your next 3 and life will sort out .

29 minutes ago, PaytonOTF said:

Root for the Aggies just this once

As Charles Barkley once said I'd root for Afghanistan first before I'd root for them