Hurricane Season Thread

[Neil Leininger]

4 hours ago, Horn95 said:

 

There is nothing more breathtaking in nature than the eye of a hurricane. It's just unbelievable.

[bierce]

HWRF has completely changed its mind now.  It looks to be predicting landfall near Matamoros, but with a very northerly track.  36 hours ago it was predicting landfall around Victoria. 

[Gerry Hamilton]

11 hours ago, bierce said:

HWRF has completely changed its mind now.  It looks to be predicting landfall near Matamoros, but with a very northerly track.  36 hours ago it was predicting landfall around Victoria. 

So I guess the models are saying the Ohio Valley trough won't have the timing to pull Beryl back towards the north? 

[bierce]

Yes, but too late to force landfall much farther north than Rio Grande mouth.  Nearly all models are in agreement now for gradual northerly turn after crossing Yucatan, landfall around Brownsville/Matamoros at category 1, and nnw motion toward San Antonio after landfall. Still 4 days away, so still time for it to change.  Slower movement in the gulf could cause it to grow into a more powerful storm.

[bierce]

While the models are coming into more agreement, it's interesting to see how the different models change with respect to each other.  36 hours ago, HMON was projecting to greatly weaken and make landfall near Tampico and quickly dissipate, GFS projecting a near category 1 around Matamoros, and HWRF projecting a still building cat 1/2 in the gulf and heading to Victoria.  Now HMON is projecting landfall 40-50 miles north of Brownsville at near category 1, while HWRF and GFS have come to near agreement about landfall near Texas/Mexico border.   

As it gets closer, they all revert to the mean, I suppose.  Models are way more accurate <72 hours out than they are over 5 days.

I still think the main thing now will be whether it slows down after crossing the Yucatan.  Eye movement at 17 mph is a pretty fast moving hurricane. 

[bierce]

Forecaster Beven at 11:00 a.m. Eastern had this gentle reminder:

"While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles."

[bierce]

Latest runs of HMON and HWRF strongly disagree on storm strength.  Latest run to which I have access for full model is 12Z or 7 am CDT.   I am getting model updates through tropicaltidbits.com, which has them about 5 hours after the fact.  If anyone knows of a site that shows the full model run in detail earlier, please let me know.

HMON now projects Beryl to make landfall in South Texas with windspeeds only around 40 mph due to near dissipation while crossing the Yucatan and little to no intensification during the gulf crossing until just before hitting the coast.  HWRF looks to be projecting a much stronger system retaining a discernible eye coming out of the Yucatan, slower movement, more regeneration in the gulf, and approach with at least category 1 winds.

[bierce]

Here are the images from HMON and HWRF for July 7 10 pm CDT.  Quite a disagreement.

 

[bierce]

Today's 5 pm EDT discussion from NHC (so it came out a few minutes early)

A large ridge centered over 
the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or 
west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model 
guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan 
Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico at around 30 h.  After that, Beryl should turn northwest 
toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a 
mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general 
motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the 
western Gulf coast between 72-96 h.  There is still some spread in 
the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of 
possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast.
Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3 
is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is 
still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. 
The new official forecast is a little north of the previous 
forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after 
that.

It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane 
core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear 
has somewhat abated.  The intensity forecast follows the premise 
that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken 
before landfall.  However, even the intensity guidance that 
forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall 
on the Yucatan Peninsula.  Additional weakening should occur while 
the center is over land.  Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance 
does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear 
generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show 
Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf 
coast.  It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that 
the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 
12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to 
intensify before that time.

 

Edited July 4 by bierce

[Neil Leininger]

How are the models predicting a Moore commitment to Texas/Oregon?

[GoHorns1]

20 hours ago, bierce said:

HWRF has completely changed its mind now.  It looks to be predicting landfall near Matamoros, but with a very northerly track.  36 hours ago it was predicting landfall around Victoria. 

Victoria isn’t on the coastline. Port Lavaca is on coastline 

Edited July 4 by GoHorns1

[bierce]

12 minutes ago, GoHorns1 said:

Victoria isn’t on the coastline.

Neither are Brownsville, Matamoros, or Houston, yet we discuss landfall in terms of those cities.

Edited July 4 by bierce

[rgvhorn80]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/2226450754371991?fs=e&s=TIeQ9V&mibextid=YlDasU
 

shark attack at SPI today

[bierce]

HMON run at 18z largely unchanged from 6 hours before.  Instead of comparing it to HWRF at the same hour, I'll compare them as they pass Matamoros/Brownsville.

HMON has it there at 4 pm on July 7.  I'll put up the HWRF chart when it becomes available in about 10-15 minutes.

Here's HMON projection for 4 pm on July 7. 

[bierce]

HWRF model has frozen at 1 pm on July 7, so I can't show the 4 pm projection.  Here's the 1 pm projection.  Still much stronger than HMON, but no longer showing Beryl taking 12-18 more hours to get to the Brownsville area.

 

[bierce]

HWRF model finally ran to a point just south of the Texas/Mexico border.  Image is projection for July 7, 7 pm. three hours after HMON had Beryl at a similar latitude.  HWRF model is a bit weaker than it was from the model 6 hours ago, but still showing hurricane strength winds at this point, and it is still over water and intensifying.

 

[bierce]

18z Jul 4 GFS model also has Beryl fizzling out over the Yucatan and never regaining much strength.

[bierce]

10 pm CDT NHC discussion (again a few minutes early)

The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the
south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt.  Beryl is expected
to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which
should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near
Tulum early Friday morning.  Most of the models show the center
remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night.  Around that time, Beryl
is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it
moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward
a trough over the south-central U.S.  Although the models are in
fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the
system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and
intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the
Gulf.  The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the
previous one, following the trend in the latest models.

It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it
reaches the coast.  Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by
the time it exits the Yucatan.  Assuming the system is able to
maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification
seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern
Mexico or southern Texas.  The NHC intensity forecast again lies
near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming
a hurricane again over the western Gulf.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, so it is too soon to pinpoint where the largest
impacts will be.

[bierce]

Bad news this morning.  Beryl is not weakening as much as predicted, and models are moving landfall up the Texas coast.  Models are agreeing on a landfall between Rockport (like it needs another one) and Port Lavaca sometime on Monday.  HWRF is again the model showing most intensity.   Buckle up, coastal Texans.

 

[Jerry K]

52 minutes ago, bierce said:

Bad news this morning.  Beryl is not weakening as much as predicted, and models are moving landfall up the Texas coast.  Models are agreeing on a landfall between Rockport (like it needs another one) and Port Lavaca sometime on Monday.  HWRF is again the model showing most intensity.   Buckle up, coastal Texans.

 

This is what I was afraid of. We have a RV in Rockport. Looks I’ll be moving it out. I’ll bet it’s gonna be stronger than NWS predicts. 

Edited July 5 by Jerry K

[bierce]

4 minutes ago, Jerry K said:

This is what I was afraid of. We have a RV in Rockport. Looks I’ll be moving it out. 

HWRF is the outlier on intensity, but it has been very accurate in past seasons. 

NHC will update its advisory in a few minutes.

I think a major factor will be how organized Beryl is when it comes off the Yucatan about 9 hours from now.

Even if the winds never top 50 in the Rockport area, 6 inches of rain will make things pretty miserable. 

[Jerry K]

3 minutes ago, bierce said:

HWRF is the outlier on intensity, but it has been very accurate in past seasons. 

NHC will update its advisory in a few minutes.

I think a major factor will be how organized Beryl is when it comes off the Yucatan about 9 hours from now.

Even if the winds never top 50 in the Rockport area, 6 inches of rain will make things pretty miserable. 

Yeah especially after Alberto. That storm did some damage. Grounds are already saturated and the entire town of Rockport is mostly flat. This looks to be bigger than Alberto so I’d expect a bigger storm surge too. Then there’s the tornadoes that come with these storms though they are mostly in the north side of the storm. 

[bierce]

Yeah, this isn't good.  Could be worse, but the warnings are embedded about the risk of Beryl getting stronger than predicted, and NCH is already predicting hurricane speeds at landfall, but NHC has a more southerly track than last HWRF and HMON models.  Landfall between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay.  The faster this thing moves across the gulf, the better.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051451
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity 
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central 
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall.  The 
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the 
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt.  For the next 24 h or so, 
Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the 
western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern 
United States.  After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely 
as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a 
combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the 
central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion should bring the 
center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.  Subsequently, a 
northward motion through the break appears likely.  While the track 
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty 
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl.  A 
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering 
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and 
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system 
would probably continue more northwestward.  Overall the guidance 
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the 
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the 
right of the previous forecast.  Additional adjustments of the 
forecast track could be necessary later today.

Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected 
to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm.  After that, 
it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over 
the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest.  
Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the 
new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h 
and continue until landfall.  One important note is that the GFS 
and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after 
48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence.  
Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently 
forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than 
forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue 
over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning areas 
today.  Residents there should shelter in place until these 
life-threatening conditions subside. 

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds, 
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in 
portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast
late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely 
monitor updates to the forecast.  Storm Surge, Hurricane and 
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions 
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much 
of the Gulf coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the 
advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the 
water. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.7N  88.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 21.4N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1200Z 22.5N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.6N  94.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 24.6N  95.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 25.6N  96.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 26.8N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR COAST
 96H  09/1200Z 29.0N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 31.0N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Gerry Hamilton]

44 minutes ago, bierce said:

HWRF is the outlier on intensity, but it has been very accurate in past seasons. 

NHC will update its advisory in a few minutes.

I think a major factor will be how organized Beryl is when it comes off the Yucatan about 9 hours from now.

Even if the winds never top 50 in the Rockport area, 6 inches of rain will make things pretty miserable. 

Agree 100% ... if Beryl quickly builds in the gulf depending on where off the Yucatan ... she will likely be a 2+ on arrival

[Blake Munroe]