Men's basketball games of note--midweek games 2/3-2/6

[bierce]

Let's start with tonight in the SEC

Vandy (43) @ Florida (5)

Vandy is coming off a loss that was so bad that most of the bracketoids who had it 8 going into the weekend dropped it to a play-in game.  But those were outlier brackets.  They tend to be over-reactive to single games.  Even so, Vandy needs to do something at this point to avoid falling out completely, but it has played progressively worse on the road with each game (+8 @ LSU, -9 @ Missouri, -16 @  Alabama, -30 @ OU).  Vandy now enters the most murderous part of its schedule--8 straight games against teams currently projected to make the tournament and an average Pomeroy ranking of 15.  Florida is probably pretty mad about being pasted in Knoxville by a Zeigler-less Tennesssee team.

OU (37) @ Auburn (1)

Well, beating a mediocre team by a bajillion at home is one thing.  Beating the top team in the country on the road is quite another.

Kentucky (19) @ Mississippi (23)

High powered offense against stingy defense.  Kentucky lost to Arky because it couldn't make Arky miss from the arc.  Mississippi lost to Auburn because it got its brains beat in on the boards as usual.  Fortunately for Beard, Kentucky is not a strong offensive rebounding team.  Then again, Mississippi State, Missouri, and Texas aren't particularly good at it and they combined for 15 offensive rebounds against Mississippi.  But what Mississippi gives up in rebounding, it regains in turnover margin, and Kentucky is terrible at that.

 

[bierce]

Purdue (10) @ Iowa (64)

Iowa has 3 problems.  It is 0-7 in q1 games.  It has lost those games by an average of 12.6 points.  It lost a q3 game at home to Minnesota.  Eight q1 games remaining starting tonight. 

Indiana (65) @ Wisconsin (17)

Cue Bob in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .

La Salle (182) @ VCU (42)

If VCU sweeps Dayton and beats George Mason but loses in the A-10 tournament, I think I can see it getting an at large bid.  If it loses a game like this tonight, then I probably can't.

Drake (52) @ Murray State (165)

See comment about VCU above, but substitute Bradley and No. Iowa for Dayton and George Mason.  This is also a redemption game for Drake.  Its q4 loss was at home to Murray State. 

Utah State (38) @ Wyoming (169)

Utah State has a very strong OOC record and is probably deserving of a better ranking, but it was last seen losing at home by 19 to New Mexico. 

Georgetown (84) @ Xavier (52)

Xavier is in a really tough spot.  While it it 5-6 in one of the three strongest conferences, it is just 1-7 in q1 games, and 8 of its nine remaining games are against the bottom 6 teams in the conference.  The other is a home game against Creighton, and if Creighton doesn't improve, that will mean Xavier has only one q1 game left (@ Villanova) while playing 9 more times in the Big East.  Some conferences are loaded all the way to the bottom.  The Big East is not.

Boise State (49) @ UNLV (105)

If Boise State, New Mexico, Utah State, and San Diego State can beat the rest of the MWC, that will make the job of the committee easy.  Put them all in, provided they each win a game or two against each other.  Boise State is 0-3 against the other three, so it better not lose to the rest of the conference while waiting for the rematches. 

 

[bierce]

I hate it when I divide by 8 instead of by 7.  Iowa lost the 7 q1 games by an average of 14.4 points. 

[bierce]

Watching the end of Clemson-GT.  Maybe.  It's in the 3rd OT.  Clemson had saved a timeout just for this moment.  Down three with 3.5 seconds left, it could throw an inbound pass beyond midcourt and immediately call timeout.  Now the whole playbook is open.  Can inbound to anyone who can take a shot.  Well done.Of course, they missed, but it was still a good coaching job in those last seconds.

But it was a terrible game by Clemson.  GT came into the game NET 130, so this was a q3 loss for Clemson, and GT should have won this by a lot more, but it shot 50% from the line and had guards inexplicably lose balance twice in the OTs while setting up to shoot.

Clemson has two wins over top 50 teams, an OT win @ Pitt and a 4 point home win over Kentucky, which lost mightily again tonight. 

OU lost by 28, so it lost whatever it had gained by torching Vandy.  Vandy lost by 11.  Mississippi put 98 on Kentucky to win by 14.  That is one terrible defensive team coming to town in 11 days.

Iowa and Indiana lost.  Twin forks.

 

[bierce]

Boise State, Utah State, Xavier, Drake, and VCU won last night, btw.  VCU by something like 40.

The biggest game of course is our game against Arky.  Win that and we're probably starting to get a lot of votes for a 7 seed or better.  We already have a few.  But what we do in the following 3 games will have a lot more to say about our eventual seed.  Or even if we make the tournament.  Lose all three, and we're no longer sitting pretty.

Other SEC games

Missouri @ Tennessee

Tennessee has both Zeigler and Milicic back.  Missouri has won 6 of its last 7, including road wins over Florida and Mississippi State, and it averaged 82.5 points in those 6 wins.  And to think we held it to 53 in Missouri's only loss in that stretch.  If Missouri can win here, it would be perfectly set up to earn a double bye.  It's remaining games against the top third of the conference will be at home, and it has only bubble teams remaining on the road. 

LSU @ Georgia (32)

Georgia looked great about three weeks ago after beating UK and OU by double digits in consecutive home games.  Lose tonight and fall out of the matrix with the second really tough stretch coming up (MSU, @ A&M, Missouri, @ Auburn, Florida, @ Texas).  That looks like a 1-5 stretch to me. 

 

 

[bierce]

Most interesting OOC game to me is Oregon (36) @ Michigan (17).  Oregon had the great series in Vegas in which it beat A&M, SDSU, and Alabama, but it is on a terrible three game stretch with losses @ Minnesota, @ UCLA (by36!), and home against Nebraska.  Remaining games against top 25 teams are all on the road (tonight, @ MSU, and @ Wisconsin).  It should still be a safe bet to make the field, but it probably already pissed away its chance for a high seed.

Cincy (53) @ UCF (63)

Pretty much do or die for both at this point.  Conceivably, any team can go on a 8 game winning streak, but that's about what these teams would have to do if they lose tonight.

Louisville (29) @ BC (roughly 200 or so)

A game that can't move the needle up but could move it down for Louisville, which was last seen losing at Georgia Tech, which stings less today since GT won @ Clemson last night.  Even so, that loss knocked Louisville down to 7 seed range, and it has no q1 games left on its schedule, so climbing much higher will be next to impossible short of winning out.  A pair of losses in the remaining games will hurt as much as the combined strength of wins.

WVU (38) @ TCU (76)

WVU finally announced DeVries will have surgery and miss the rest of the year.  It won @ Cincy to get the ship righted over the weekend with a kind of cheap q1 win.  the other four q1 wins were anything but cheap (Gonzaga, Arizona on a neutral floor, @ KU, and home against ISU).

SMU (40) @ VT (163)

Still not a believer.  SMU's best showing against a likely tournament team was a 4 point loss at home to Mississippi State.  Its other three games against tournament teams resulted in 3 losses by a combined 67 points, and UNC is hardly a lock to make the tournament, and losses to Duke and Louisville were at home by 52 points.

 

 

 

 

[bierce]

Colorado State (76) @ New Mexico (46)

NM with a chance to pretty much wrap up at least a tie for the conference title by winning the next 5 games (this one, breathers against Air Force and Wyoming, and home against Utah State).   It will still  have to go to Boise State and SDSU, but it has already beaten them in Albuquerque by double digits.   

Richard Pitino is starting to receive attention for the P5 spots opening up.  Hard to believe, but he's still only 42, and I think most ADs will understand Minnesota has been at a severe disadvantage in recruiting for decades, so they probably won't hold his lack of success there against him.  I still think if Dan Monson could do it all over again, he would have stayed at Gonzaga.  

Wake Forest (68) @ Stanford (72)

Wake Forest is positioned to get the benefit of the doubt despite a terrible NET ranking by finishing in the top 4 in the ACC, much the way UVa did last year, and it has a very good OOC win over Michigan on a neutral(ish) floor, much like UVa over Florida last year.  Of course, UVa proved to be totally undeserving by losing a play-in game by 25.

Nebraska (50) @ UDub (93)

Nebraska with a chance to make it three in a row, heading into a pair of home games against tournament bound tOSU and Maryland.   

[bierce]

Oregon came close, but it couldn't stop the bleeding.  80-76 Michigan.

Cincy won 93-83.  Mitchell had 19.  Pity he can't make a ft.

TCU beat WVU 65-60.  Hard to believe a team with wins over Kansas, ISU, Arizona, and Gonzaga could miss the tournament, but that is beginning to look likely.

SMU 81 Va Tech 75.  Still not a believer

Georgia 81 LSU 62

New Mexico 87 Colorado State 65.  Pitino marches on.  CSU is still in third in the MWC, but it doesn't have any good OOC wins. 

Nebraska won 86-72, needing a huge second half to win it. 

Wake 79 Stanford 73.

[bierce]

Maryland (15) @ tOSU (26)

You'd think tOSU would be pretty safe at this point, but it not well loved by bracketistas.  Ten seed and even left off a pair of brackets updated since the weekend.  Well, there's no accounting for taste.  This isn't exactly a must win for tOSU, but it is getting near the point of needing another big win at some point, or to avoid any more q2 losses.  It will host Michigan and go to UCLA, so it has a couple of more chances for a win against conference top 4 after tonight.

Maryland is on a roll since the Willard-Evans spat.  Four straight wins, including a 21 point beatdown of Illinois in Champaign and coming back from down 5 with under 3 to go at Indiana, and someone just chucked $10 million at the basketball program.