How much of a unicorn is Arch Manning?

[CHorn427]

As we all know, the national media is essentially divided into Arch-hypers and Arch-detractors. I keep hearing many national analysts on the detractor side essentially refer to Arch Manning like he is comparable to a standard first year starter in college football. "Texas has a first year starter at QB, you know how that can go", etc. 

Before diving into any stats, hearing that just caused some cognitive dissonance for me because right off the bat so many caveats come to mind when thinking of comparing Arch Manning to a first year starter. But I wanted to do an actual comparison with research and statistics, so that's what this post is for. For the sake of this, let's completely ignore that Arch is a Manning. Just an anonymous college QB. What are the objective characteristics of this QB that can be compared to current and former QBs across the country?

1. Former 5* recruit

2. Had to sit behind another former 5* recruit that already had a year of starting experience 

3. Doesn't transfer to another program

4. Racks up quality game time experience in 2 years in backup capacity

5. Isn't the week one or season-majority starter until Year 3 or later

So, to begin my comparison, I considered criteria #1, #3 and #5 and looked for former 5* recruits that eventually started at the program they signed with out of HS, but not until year 3 or later. I used 247 recruit rankings and went back to the 2010 class (earliest available on 247). Surprisingly, other than Arch, there have only been 3 other former 5* QBs that fit these criteria: Max Browne (USC), Davis Mills (Stanford) and Ty Simpson (Bama). Next, I was curious about how these players compared to Arch for criteria #2 and #4. 

#2. Who started ahead of Browne, Mills and Simpson? How much experience relative experience did they have?

Browne: Cody Kessler, former 4* recruit with zero years of starting experience prior to Browne's first year on campus(2013)

Mills: KJ Costello, former 4* recruit with zero years of starting experience prior to Mills' first year on campus (2017)

Simpson: Jalen Milroe, former 4* recruit with zero years of starting experience prior to Simpson's first year on campus (2022)

#4. How do the stats prior to being the week one or season-majority starter stack up? I'll add up all stats from the other 3.

The Field: 0 Starts, 40/71, 56% completion, 524 yds passing, 0 passing TDs, 0 INTs, 148 yds rushing, 3 rushing TDs

Arch: 2 Starts, 63/95, 66% completion, 969 yds passing, 9 passing TDs, 2 INTs, 115 yds rushing, 4 rushing TDs

 

Conclusion: Arch Manning is unique to say the least