Still, it’s hard not to look at the Longhorns’ woes inside the 20 when trying to figure what must change to achieve a different outcome in their third meeting with Ohio State in just over 600 days. Steve Sarkisian said as much on Monday when asked if Texas took the right steps in the offseason to fix its issues in goal-to-go situations against the Buckeyes.
“When it comes to those scenarios, personnel helps,” Sarkisian said. “Schemes help, the right play call at the right time helps, the mentality helps. It all adds up because they've got good scheme(s), they've got good players, they've got good play-callers. It's the marriage of those two things coming together. Ultimately, we need to be better in those scenarios. You just think about these last two games we've played them; that was probably the difference in the ballgame was our inability to score inside the 10.”
The red-zone issues were front and center during last season’s 14-7 season-opening loss in Columbus. The Longhorns failed to score on their two trips inside the Ohio State 20-yard line, including a sloppy attempt at a quarterback sneak on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line in the second quarter and back-to-back incomplete passes by Arch Manning (a crossing route to Ryan Wingo on third down and a corner route to Parker Livingstone on fourth down) from the Buckeyes’ 9-yard line in the fourth quarter.
Last season, Texas was 4-for-7 in the red zone in its three losses, with its 57.1-percent scoring rate ranking 127th among FBS teams who had at least one red-zone possession in a loss. With only three total red-zone touchdowns in losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, the Longhorns tied for 107th in FBS with a 42.9-percent red-zone touchdown rate.
Unfortunately, red-zone misfires have been a trend in Texas’ last eight losses under Sarkisian.
Since the start of the 2023 season, the Longhorns are 15-for-24 in the red zone in their eight losses (Oklahoma, Washington, Florida, Georgia three times and the Buckeyes twice). Along with recording a 62.5-percent scoring rate, Texas has also tallied an abysmal 41.7-percent touchdown rate in those losses, scoring only 10 touchdowns on 24 red-zone possessions.
The Longhorns have an 84.4-percent red-zone scoring rate in their last 36 wins (135-for-160), including a 6-for-7 mark in last Saturday’s 59-7 rout of Texas State. James Simon’s 6-yard touchdown run with 2:08 left to play against the Bobcats was the 100th red-zone touchdown (62.5-percent red-zone touchdown rate) Texas has scored in a win since it dispatched Rice, 37-10, to open the 2023 season with a victory.
The Longhorns need to reverse the trend to change their fate against opponents ranked in the top five of the Associated Press Top 25 (2-5 since 2023). Included in Texas' nine failed red-zone possessions across its last eight losses are some of the most painful what-if moments of Sarkisian’s tenure.
— The Sooners’ goal-line stand in 2023. Texas came up empty after facing first-and-goal at the 1-yard line.
— The Longhorns couldn’t finish a potential game-winning drive against the Huskies in the 2024 Sugar Bowl, failing to score after driving the ball to the Washington 12-yard line with 15 seconds on the clock.
— Texas settled for field goals on its last drive in regulation and its lone possession of overtime in a 22-19 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game in 2024.
— A forgettable sequence in a Cotton Bowl loss to Ohio State, which went downhill after the Longhorns had first-and-goal at the 1-yard line with 3:56 remaining in regulation.
Under Sarkisian, Texas has ascended high enough in college football’s national championship race to see the summit.
It would’ve been easier to deal with the College Football Playoff losses in particular if the Longhorns had been blown out in both games, Sarkisian joked. While a win over the Buckeyes wouldn’t guarantee Texas a trip to Las Vegas for the CFP title game, it would be a monumental step in helping the program reach heights it hasn't since Vince Young crossed the goal line on fourth-and-5 in the Rose Bowl more than 20 years ago.
“When you're that close, it's probably harder to get over, but I say it a lot: that's the life of a competitor,” Sarkisian said. “We're very fortunate to put ourselves in that arena, to put ourselves on that stage and I wouldn't want it any other way than to be on that stage. There's a lot of other people that were sitting at home on their couch watching us play in that game. The goal is to win that one and then win one more. We've got to do everything in our power to try to put ourselves back in those positions to be even better if we're fortunate enough to be in that situation again.”
That includes improving their execution in critical situations like the red zone, which should play a significant role in determining the outcome of another top-five tussle with the Buckeyes.
Other statistics to follow when No. 4 Texas hosts No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday:
— The Longhorns haven’t had a problem generating explosive plays against the Buckeyes. Texas had a 9-4 edge in explosives (rushing attempt of 12 or more yards and a pass completion of 15 or more yards) in the Cotton Bowl and a 7-2 advantage in Columbus.
Nevertheless, the Buckeyes made theirs count, whereas the Longhorns’ production was largely for naught.
Of the 16 explosive plays Texas has tallied in the two games, only five led to a touchdown or reached the end zone. Five of Ohio State’s six, however, occurred on a touchdown drive or scored, including Julian Sayin’s game-deciding 40-yard touchdown strike to Carnell Tate in the fourth quarter.
— If red-zone issues weren’t solely responsible for the Longhorns losing the game last season, penalties could’ve been largely to blame. The Buckeyes’ first touchdown drive (a 13-play, 80-yard march in the second quarter) was aided by a 15-yard face mask penalty against Colin Simmons on third-and-4 from the Texas 44 and a 10-yard defensive holding call against Malik Muhammad two plays later.
The Longhorns also had a safety wiped off the board when Simmons forced a holding call in the end zone in the third quarter, only for Liona Lefau to get called for illegal hands to the face, forcing second-and-9 from the Buckeyes’ 2-yard line to be replayed. Ohio State won the penalty battle in a landslide (two for 15 yards, whereas Texas was assessed six penalties for 50 yards), which the Longhorns can’t repeat.
— To-go distance on third down is more critical to Texas because the Buckeyes have won the last two games despite going a combined 6-for-22 on third down. While the Longhorns finished last season’s game at the Horseshoe with an average to-go distance of 5.5 yards on third down, they were 1-for-6 on third-and-8 longer (the only conversion was a 32-yard touchdown pass from Manning to Livingstone on third-and-10, which was third-and-5 before Texas was flagged for a false start).
Sarkisian will have more of his call sheet available on critical downs if the offense stays as close to on-schedule as possible. That’s where the running game will be a huge factor, especially with the Longhorns coming off a game against Texas State in which nine of the team’s 31 rushing attempts by a running back (29 percent) were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Texas can’t count on a 2-for-4 day on third-and-9 plus like the offense had last Saturday. Likewise, Will Muschamp’s defense will look to put Ohio State behind the chains more often than the Bobcats, who averaged 4.3 yards to go on third down (nine of Texas State's 14 third-down conversion attempts were third-and-4 or less).
— It shouldn't need to be said that turnover margin is important in a game of this magnitude. It's hugely important for the Longhorns, though, who are 6-12 under Sarkisian when they lose the turnover margin. That includes their losses to the Buckeyes; a David Gbenda interception against Will Howard in the Cotton Bowl is the only turnover Texas has forced in its last eight quarters against Ohio State.
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