The college football world will be fixated on the Forty Acres this week, with No. 4 Texas hosting No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC). With a slew of future NFL players littering the Longhorn and Buckeye rosters, the edges in the six categories were determined by the slimmest of margins.
The game wasn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter the last two times Texas and Ohio State met on the field. Saturday’s tilt isn’t expected to be different.
WHEN TEXAS RUNS THE FOOTBALL
Matt Patricia’s decision to drop more defenders into coverage against Arch Manning in Columbus last season and Steve Sarkisian’s willingness to stick with the running game (37 rushing attempts were the third-most the Longhorns recorded in a game last season) played big roles in how well the Longhorns moved the ball on the ground against the Buckeyes.
It was arguably the most consistent the Texas running game was in 2025. According to Pro Football Focus, Texas gained 55 yards on 15 A- and B-gap rushing attempts (3.7 yards per carry) against Ohio State last season.
Patricia’s plan should focus on denying the Longhorns wide-zone runs, which tend to be Sarkisian’s go-to calls when the running game is clicking. Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown and the other Texas ball-carriers bouncing duo concepts to the outside should also be a point of emphasis for the Buckeyes.
When that’s happened in the recent past, Sarkisian hasn’t had a counterpunch. To that end, expect the Longhorn running game to look a lot different schematically than the relatively bland plan of attack against Texas State, which produced inconsistent results.
The Texas running backs had four of their combined 31 carries go for at least 10 years. Nine of those 31 carries were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. A combination of the running backs making more decisive cuts and blockers staying engaged longer (straining, as Sarkisian calls it) will go a long way toward the Longhorns achieving more ideal balance.
The Buckeyes should feel confident stopping the run with a light box, with Eddrick Houston and John Walker leading the charge up front and Christian Alliegro and Payton Pierce cleaning things up behind them. Needless to say, forcing Ohio State to devote an extra defender to stopping the run (which is easier said than done, especially if Derrek Cooper can’t go after injuring his right ankle in the opener) will open things up for Manning in ways he didn’t have available to him inside the Horseshoe last season.
EDGE: Ohio State
WHEN OHIO STATE RUNS THE FOOTBALL
Just looking at the box score from the Buckeyes’ season-opening 56-3 rout of Ball State, one might think the running game was dominant. Ohio State rushed for 237 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), with Bo Jackson and Ja’Kobi Jackson both gaining 89 yards on the ground and finding the end zone in the resounding victory.
However, two long second-half touchdown runs (a 65-yarder by Bo Jackson and a 49-yard run by Ja’Kobi Jackson) bolstered the raw numbers.
The Buckeyes ended the first half with only 35 net yards on 21 carries (2.1 yards per attempt). Six of Ohio State's 28 running back carries were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, while 20 attempts gained five yards or less.
Like Sarkisian’s offense against Texas State, Arthur Smith utilized 12 personnel to fuel the Buckeye running game. Heavier personnel could force Will Muschamp’s hand when deciding how many defenders to devote to stopping the run. That would put more pressure on a Texas secondary entering the game under the gun, knowing it has to deal with Jeremiah Smith for 60 minutes.
While the Longhorns will face better personnel than they did in the opener, Ohio State's offensive line isn't as big as Texas State's. The Buckeyes also won’t push the tempo like the Bobcats did (few FBS offenses do), which should keep Texas' defensive linemen from getting gassed as quickly as they did last week.
EDGE: Texas
WHEN TEXAS THROWS THE FOOTBALL
After struggling for three and a half quarters, Manning found something that worked late in last year’s loss to Ohio State. He nailed a few vertical throws, including a 28-yard strike to Ryan Wingo and a 32-yard touchdown to Parker Livingstone; a 30-yard completion to Jack Endries kickstarted the Longhorns’ final possession, which ultimately ended in a turnover on downs in the closing minutes of regulation.
Manning's trip to Columbus mirrored his development throughout the 2025 season. Although it took a while for Sarkisian to figure out what gets Manning going, what keeps him hot and what can get him out of a lull, the quarterback’s trajectory took off once he and the play-caller got on the same page.
Manning has more seasoned personnel around him for his second start against the Buckeyes in 378 days. The Ohio State defense Manning faced last season is also replacing five of the first 62 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Buckeyes still ooze talent. But Manning might find it more comfortable operating at home, without trying to identify where elite playmakers like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles (three of the first 11 picks in the draft) are lined up before the snap.
Ohio State isn’t facing the same quarterback who was struggling to keep his head above water in last season’s meeting. Manning, who quarterbacked Texas to three wins over top-10 opponents (two at home) last season, has proven himself as one of the top scrambling quarterbacks in the country, meaning he can make Patricia's call wrong, even when everything leading up to the time he takes off with the football looks right.
EDGE: Texas
WHEN OHIO STATE THROWS THE FOOTBALL
Jeremiah Smith is due for a big game against the Longhorns. After holding him to one catch for three yards in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Cotton Bowl, Texas bottled him up last season, limiting him to 43 yards on six catches (with two drops, according to PFF).
What’s interesting about Smith’s 30-game career with the Buckeyes is that in the four losses he's played in, he’s put up massive numbers. Smith had a 100-yard game in three of the four losses and scored in two games. Smith's only sub-100-yard game in a loss was a five-catch, 35-yard performance against Michigan in 2024, when Will Howard took a big hit early, which helped derail the Ohio State passing attack.
In the two wins over Texas, when Smith was held in check, Carnell Tate (and Emeka Egbuka in the Cotton Bowl) made clutch catches. Are Devin McCuin, Brandon Inniss, Chris Henry Jr. or Legend Bey ready to step up if the Longhorns successfully put the clamps on Smith again?
For Muschamp’s defense to pull its weight in a winning effort, the plan must also include pressuring Julian Sayin.
There might not be a better quarterback in the country than Sayin when he’s got a clean pocket. Sayin’s PFF grade of 94.4 from a clean pocket (82.1-percent completion rate, 2,883 yards and 25 touchdown passes against five interceptions) led FBS in 2025.
In Ohio State’s losses to Indiana and Miami, however, Sayin was pressured on 39.2 percent of his dropbacks. Sayin completed just 42.1 percent of his passes (8-for-19) for 93 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, with 10 of the pressures leading to a sack.
The question is whether Muschamp’s fronts and coverages can work well enough together to get to Sayin. If they do, it'll lead to the Longhorns generating the kind of pressure that will create opportunities for negative plays and turnovers.
EDGE: Ohio State
SPECIAL TEAMS
The punters played a big role in last season’s game in Columbus, with Jack Bouwmeester’s ability to flip field position helping Texas stay in the game. Joe McGuire, who punted a career-high six times against the Longhorns, is back for Ohio State, while Bouwmeester’s replacement, Mac Chiumento, didn’t punt against Texas State.
The Longhorns enter the game with the most proven return man on either side. Will the Buckeyes kick to Ryan Niblett?
Former Baylor kicker Connor Hawkins connected on all seven extra points against Ball State. Hawkins, however, didn’t attempt a field goal, so the Liberty Hill product's first try in a Buckeye uniform will be under the lights at DKR. From that standpoint, one of the most important moments of last week’s win over Texas State might’ve been Gianni Spetic attempting and making a 48-yard field goal.
Texas has suffered numerous kicking game lapses in games of this magnitude under Sarkisian. The Longhorns have the edge in the third phase on paper, but Jeff Banks needs to make sure they maximize it and make it an advantage on Saturday.
EDGE: Texas
COACHES
Steve Casula is one of Sarkisian’s offseason staff additions that could help Texas against Ohio State.
Casula was an analyst at Michigan in 2021, when the Wolverines started a four-game winning streak over the Buckeyes. Casula, who works with the Longhorn tight ends, didn’t bring a secret sauce with him from Ann Arbor that will magically give Texas an edge on Saturday.
Still, Casula has been on a staff that put together a successful, winning game plan against a Ryan Day-coached Ohio State squad.
Where Casula's impact could be felt is when the Longhorns run the football. The tight ends set a physical, nasty tone in the running game against Texas State. The offensive line and running backs following their lead could give Texas the toughness it needs to get over the hump against an opponent of the Buckeyes' caliber.
Day has two former NFL head coaches calling plays on offense (Arthur Smith) and defense (Patricia). Even as Day has had to fill more coaching vacancies than he'd probably like throughout his tenure, Ohio State is in the discussion for boasting the best coaching staff in the country year in and year out.
After losing to the Buckeyes in back-to-back seasons with largely the same group of coaches, will Sarkisian's staff changes be enough to help the Longhorns slay the scarlet-and-gray dragon?
EDGE: Ohio State
SCORE PREDICTION
Texas 34, Ohio State 31
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