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    Jeff Howe
    Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl pits two of the most highly-touted quarterback prospects in the history of modern recruiting against each other when Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood lead their respective teams into battle for the last time in 2025.
    Manning, who will make his 15th career start for Texas, is the eighth-highest rated quarterback prospect in the history of the 247Sports Composite, slightly behind Terrelle Pryor and just ahead of Matt Barkley. Ryan Mallett is the only quarterback to ever sign with Michigan rated higher than Underwood (No. 22 all-time in the 247Sports Composite quarterback rankings), who will start for the 13th and final time as a true freshman.
    That’s where the similarities end between two former prized quarterback recruits at different stages of their respective careers.
    Against a Wolverine defense that ranks 16th nationally in points per game allowed (18.7), 18th in yards per play allowed (4.77) and 22nd in yards per game allowed (312.3), Manning will look to continue the success he’s enjoyed against the Longhorns’ ranked opponents in 2025. Even though he struggled in a season-opening loss to Ohio State, Manning completed 64.2 percent of his passes (104 for 162) against the Buckeyes, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, throwing for 1,094 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions.
    Manning’s 112 net rushing yards in those games include a 36-yard game-clinching touchdown run against the Aggies. According to Pro Football Focus, Manning was pressured on 97 dropbacks, but his pocket presence and athleticism minimized the damage to the tune of just six total sacks for the five ranked foes.
    Wink Martindale, a defensive coordinator known for the variety and volume of pressure looks he’ll throw at opposing quarterbacks, will have to blitz Manning at his own risk. On the 184 dropbacks in which Manning has been blitzed through 12 games, according to PFF, he’s completed more than 57 percent of his passes (96 for 166) for 1,419 yards and 12 touchdowns, throwing just two interceptions with 81 pressures via the blitz leading to only 11 sacks.
    On the other hand, Underwood’s two games against ranked opponents (a 24-13 loss to Oklahoma in his first start on the road and a 27-9 loss to Ohio State at home in the regular season finale) yielded unsavory results. In Michigan's losses to the Sooners and Buckeyes, Underwood went 17-for-42 through the air (40.5 percent completion rate) for 205 yards (4.9 yards per attempt and 12.1 yards per completion) with no touchdown passes and one interception.
    Like most inexperienced quarterbacks, Underwood is still learning how to deal with pressure. According to PFF, Underwood is 28-for-61 on the 29.7 percent of his dropbacks in which he’s faced pressure, with 362 yards, one touchdown and one interception, numbers that have contributed to an NFL passer rating of 63.7.
    Martindale and the Wolverines will play the game without three defensive captains (EDGE Derrick Moore and linebackers Jaishawn Barham and Ernest Hausmann). The Longhorns have turned defensive play-calling duties over to Johnny Nansen, who’s left to adjust to the fallout of seven postseason opt-outs.
    Still, the objective for both coordinators on Wednesday should be to win the race to make the game one in which the opponent has to drop back and throw the football to survive.
    A Texas offensive line operating at full strength must keep Manning clean and pave the way for the Longhorns to run the ball well enough to achieve a must-have semblance of balance. The Longhorns surrendered just three sacks in their three regular-season wins over Associated Press top-10 opponents, victories over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in which Texas averaged 155.3 rushing yards per game (4.68 yards per attempt).
    Ty’Anthony Smith and Brad Spence will lead an inexperienced group of Texas linebackers against a Michigan rushing attack that’s one of the best in the country (213.2 yards per game and 5.51 yards per attempt are top-15 marks in FBS). Slowing down the Wolverines’ rushing attack isn’t an insurmountable task, however, with Michigan set to take the field without running back Justice Haynes (857 yards rushing, 7.1 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns), All-Big Ten tight end/H-back/fullback/lead blocker Max Bredeson and All-Big Ten left guard Gio El-Hadi (it also remains to be seen where leading rusher Jordan Marshall is in his recovery from a late-season shoulder injury).
    Opt-outs and coaching changes add significant unknown variables when trying to predict the winner of a postseason exhibition between two of the five winningest programs in FBS history. The outcome will likely be decided by either the Wolverines slowing down Manning’s ascent toward his ceiling or the Longhorns doing their part to put Underwood’s coming-of-age moment as a college quarterback off until 2026.
    Jeff Howe
    A lot has changed since Texas smacked reigning national champion Michigan, 31-12, on Sept. 7, 2024.
    The Longhorns’ romp snapped several Wolverine winning streaks, including 23 consecutive wins at the Big House and 28 consecutive regular-season victories.
    The rosters and coaching staff for both clubs look a lot different ahead of Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl (2 p.m., ABC), the second meeting between No. 13 Texas (9-3, 6-2 SEC) and No. 18 Michigan (9-3, 7-2 Big Ten) in 15 months. Still, interim offensive coordinator Steve Casula and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale were in Ann Arbor for the second all-time meeting between the Wolverines and Longhorns.
    Casula, Michigan’s interim offensive coordinator for last season’s ReliaQuest Bowl win over Alabama, said during Sunday’s press conferences at Orlando’s Rosen Plaza Hotel that the Texas defense missing seven starting-caliber players and turning defensive play-calling duties over to Johnny Nansen haven’t changed his view of the Longhorns. Casula cited Nansen’s experience as a defensive coordinator (two seasons at Arizona in 2022 and 2023) and the presence of “a very, very special player” on the edge in second-team All-American Colin Simmons when describing why “ a healthy program, a deep program” like Texas remains a formidable opponent.
    “Forget who the players were or what the schemes were or anything,” Casula said. “In totality, they were one of the most well-coached teams, in my opinion, that we've encountered in my time here at Michigan. Our expectation would be that we'd encounter the same thing on Wednesday.”
    Over the last two seasons, only five opponents have had better performances against Martindale’s defense than Steve Sarkisian’s offense, which tallied 389 yards of total offense in the second game of the 2024 season (only three opposing offenses have topped the 5.7 yards per play the Longhorns averaged against the Wolverines in Martindale’s 25 games on the job). Even with the Texas running back room going through a significant transition (Kyle Flood said on Sunday that Christian Clark, Ryan Niblett, James Simon and Michael Terry III could all have roles in Wednesday’s game) and DeAndre Moore Jr. preparing to enter the transfer portal, an offense led by Arch Manning, who completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,094 yards and seven touchdowns (two interceptions) while rushing for 112 yards (4.2 yards per attempt) and a touchdown against ranked opponents in the regular season, has Martindale’s attention.
    “When you had that box of cereal, and you didn't know what the surprise was? It's the same thing going against that offense,” Martindale said. “You're not sure who's going to be there, but they're going to be very talented. It's going to be a great challenge for us.”
    Jeff Howe
    I decided to sleep on the bombshell Steve Sarkisian dropped on Thursday, and my thoughts on Will Muschamp’s return to Texas at the expense of Pete Kwiatkowski’s job (with the collateral damage including the end of Duane Akina’s second stint on the Forty Acres) remain largely the same.
    With that said, it’s worth painting the backdrop for Sarkisian’s calculated risk.
    To understand why the burnt orange faithful love Muschamp, one has to understand the situation he inherited in 2008.
    After Greg Robinson and Gene Chizik successfully built on the foundation that Carl Reese built, with the Longhorns fielding elite defenses in 2004 and 2005, the bottom fell out in 2007.
    A defense co-coordinated by Akina and Larry MacDuff is still the second-worst pass defense in school history in yards per game allowed (277.8). The 23 passing touchdowns the unit gave up set an all-time single-season high at Texas until Vance Bedford’s 2015 defense was burned for 24 scores through the air (Todd Orlando's 2018 and 2019 defenses established new marks, surrendering 26 and 28 passing touchdowns, respectively).
    Much like the 2025 squad, the 2007 Longhorns underachieved compared to preseason expectations.
    Texas was in line to play in a BCS bowl until a sloppy performance in College Station ended with a 38-30 loss to Texas A&M in what turned out to be Dennis Franchione’s last game as coach of the Aggies. Mack Brown famously made every starting job open for competition heading into that season’s Holiday Bowl against Arizona State. The Longhorns played largely inspired football, putting forth arguably their best performance of the season in a 52-34 rout of the Sun Devils, a 10-win team under Dennis Erickson that claimed a share of the Pac-10 title.
    Still, Brown shook things up, hiring Muschamp away from Auburn to run the defense. The impact was felt in Muschamp's first spring as Texas played defense with a physical, disciplined and maniacal edge it lacked since winning the national championship in 2005.
    Muschamp did more than field defenses that played with elite levels of effort, intensity and toughness, harkening back to the days of Mike Campbell and Leon Fuller. He changed the culture across the board, which, along with the evolution of Colt McCoy on offense, spearheaded the Longhorns to a 25-2 record (with a Big 12 title, a BCS championship game appearance and a Fiesta Bowl win over Ohio State) during Muschamp’s first two seasons in Austin.
    Fast forward 15 years (the news of Muschamp’s departure to Florida to be Urban Meyer’s successor broke on a massive official visit weekend that coincided with the 2010 Texas team’s postseason banquet), and Sarkisian is in a position where Brown found himself before he hired Muschamp. And it's not where Brown was after he led the program to consecutive 10-3 seasons after the 2005 triumph.
    For Sarkisian, this offseason mirrors where Brown’s tenure stood after the 2003 season, which ended with a disappointing Holiday Bowl loss to Washington State.
    Reese, who was 60 years old at the time, took the Longhorn defense as far as he could. With Mike Leach and Mark Mangino at the forefront of the spread evolution in the Big 12, top-notch offensive minds gradually figured out how to move the ball and score against Reese’s aggressive defenses, which relied on playing high-level man coverage.
    The 59-year-old Kwiatkowski pulled the nose up after a disastrous 2021, leading championship-caliber defenses over the last three seasons. While no guarantee that turning the defense over to Muschamp will get Texas over the hump, the move suggests that Sarkisian made a tough but necessary call.
    If the Longhorns are going to ascend to the next level in Sarkisian's sixth season, changes had to be made.
    Texas has a plethora of potential difference makers along the defensive front who can enhance what Colin Simmons brings to the table. Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips are foundational pieces in the secondary.
    What the Longhorns can’t have when the dust settles on the 2026 season is the feeling that lingers at the end of Anthony Hill Jr.’s collegiate career. Even though Hill made multiple All-America teams, it’s fair to say that there was meat left on the bone, that Texas didn’t get everything it could out of a game-changing presence in the middle of the defense.
    The 54-year-old Muschamp hasn’t been hanging out on the golf course over the last few college football seasons. After his time as Georgia’s co-defensive coordinator ended following the 2023 season, he spent one more season with the Bulldogs as an analyst, making him familiar with SEC offensive play-callers and schemes and, more importantly, the defensive personnel he’s inheriting upon his return to the Longhorns.
    Texas is rightfully loading up for what’s expected to be Arch Manning’s last hurrah. Getting the most out of Simmons (a potential early first-round NFL draft pick in 2027) is just as important in the Longhorns’ quest to overtake Georgia for the SEC throne on their way to college football’s summit.
    It would be nice to make moves with a multi-year vision for the program in mind. Unfortunately, with the roster volatility that exists in college football, on top of Texas missing the College Football Playoff after two consecutive trips, Sarkisian has to make moves that will maximize the next 12-plus months.
    The Muschamp move is the biggest example so far that the Longhorns are approaching 2026 with the mindset of going big or going home.
    Jeff Howe
    The vigor with which Texas addresses the wide receiver position in the transfer portal likely depends on the answer to one question.
    How much faith does Steve Sarkisian have in Ryan Wingo emerging as a bona fide No. 1 option for Arch Manning?
    Leading the Longhorns in receptions (50), receiving yards (770) and touchdown receptions (seven) en route to second-team All-SEC recognition from the league’s coaches constitutes a successful sophomore campaign through 12 games. Still, finishing the regular season with the second-most dropped passes among SEC wide receivers (Wingo’s seven are currently two behind Alabama’s Ryan Williams for the league high), which contributed to Manning suffering from 21 dropped passes, fourth-most among SEC quarterbacks and tied for 21st in FBS, according to Pro Football Focus.
    With his 50 catches coming on 87 targets (a 57.5 percent catch rate, according to PFF), Wingo’s 2025 season mirrors what Xavier Worthy went through in 2022.
    Worthy’s sophomore season saw him lead Texas with 59 receptions (on 113 targets for a catch rate of 52.2 percent), yards (757) and touchdowns (eight) and drops (seven). The 2024 first-round pick turned things around with an All-American season in 2023, with his 75 receptions for 1,014 yards and five touchdowns (two fewer dropped passes on six more targets from the previous season) helped the Longhorns win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff.
    Will Wingo make the same kind of leap in his first draft-eligible season?
    — DeAndre Moore Jr.’s decision to jump to the NFL leaves a void in the slot (a team-high 216 snaps according to PFF) and opens a role as Manning’s go-to target in the intermediate passing game. According to PFF, Moore leads the Texas offense in receptions (14) and yards gained (229) when targeted from 10 to 19 yards down the field, accounting for 36.8 percent of the receptions (38) and 43 percent of the yards (522) he tallied in his final season with the Longhorns.
    In the intermediate game, Emmett Mosley V’s PFF season grade of 94.9 is higher than Moore’s (94). Mosley is a safe bet to rack up more than the 11 targets he got on intermediate throws.
    As for the workload in the slot, Sarkisian has to decide whether a portal acquisition would be an upgrade over a potential tandem of Daylan McCutcheon and Jermaine Bishop Jr. While Sarkisian can’t leave anything to chance in what’s expected to be Manning’s last season behind center, losing Trevor Goosby, Hero Kanu, Jelani McDonald or Quintrevion Wisner to the NFL could force Texas to use its available resources to shore up position groups with greater, more pressing needs.
    — With Liona Lefau leaving the program ahead of entering the transfer portal on Jan. 2, Ty’Anthony Smith is at the top of the list of the Longhorns who stand to gain the most leading up to and coming out of the Citrus Bowl against Michigan on New Year’s Eve.
    Smith ended the regular season with 364 snaps logged, according to PFF, recording the fifth-best season-long grade against the run (78.9, with PFF considering a grade of 70 to be above average) of any Longhorn defender.
    The Jasper product leads the team in forced fumbles (three) and missed tackles (12), showing how often he finds himself around the football. The latter should get better with experience, but the same must be true of Smith’s coverage ability for him to take the next step as a player.
    According to PFF, no Texas linebacker has been targeted this season more than Smith (33). Only Graceson Littleton and Jaylon Guilbeau have allowed more completions among Longhorn defensive players than Smith (26), who has allowed 244 yards (fourth-most on the team behind Guilbeau, Littleton and Lefau) and an NFL passer rating of 107.6 when targeted.
    With offensive play-callers looking to exploit the second level of the opposing defense when hunting favorable matchups, all linebackers are a liability in coverage in some way, shape or form. Nevertheless, Smith has the tools to be better in coverage than the numbers have shown this season.
    Jeff Howe
    Monday’s news of Liona Lefau’s departure from the Texas football program, along with DeAndre Moore Jr.’s intention to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, is collateral damage amid the persistent roster volatility permeating throughout college football.
    The Longhorns planned to use the transfer portal to bolster the linebacker position before Lefau’s decision to enter the transfer portal went public. With Lefau’s production over 42 career games played and 22 starts gone, Texas will look for proven commodities to overhaul the second level of Pete Kwiatkowski’s defense.
    Moore, who wasn’t expected back on the Forty Acres in 2026, according to what team sources told On Texas Football in recent weeks, will join Lefau, Ethan Burke, Jaylon Guilbeau, Anthony Hill Jr., Trey Moore, Malik Muhammad and Michael Taaffe in opting out of the Citrus Bowl against Michigan in just over two weeks.
    Lefau’s decision to head into the portal, and Hill and Moore focusing on the draft, leaves Texas thin at linebacker for the bowl game, to say the least.
    The short-term pinch means a bigger role for Ty’Anthony Smith against the Wolverines, who lead the Big Ten with 32 rushing touchdowns, are second in the conference in yards per rushing attempt (5.51) and rank 16th nationally in rushing yards per game (213.2). Brad Spence could log more playing time at linebacker instead of as a pass rusher off the edge and, potentially, there could be more snaps available for Bo Barnes and Marshall Landwehr.
    For better or worse, that’s the price Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns are willing to pay to ensure they’ve got their ducks in a row long before the transfer portal officially opens for business on Jan. 2.
    Sarkisian didn’t want to outright say during his signing day press conference on Dec. 3 that following “an NFL draft model” is the best way to approach roster construction. Still, he laid out why the need to be fiscally responsible leads to tough calls on which players to acquire and retain.
    “You can only have so much money,” Sarkisian said. “There’s rules, there’s caps and we play within the confines of what the rules (are) that they put in place, so you’ve got to decide what’s the value at the position and what’s the value of certain players. When School B offers more money that’s outside of the value — it’s not endless. You can’t just keep throwing money on top of money on top of money.
    “We have to be very specific in (addressing) what are our needs, looking long term as well as short term, of where do you allocate that money?”
    Viewing the early signing window as the equivalent of the NFL draft (presumably, that would make the February signing period college football’s version of the supplemental draft, which is a fair comparison because it's becoming less relevant from one recruiting cycle to the next), Sarkisian said Texas landed some “elite first-round picks” in the 2026 class (Tyler Atkinson, Dia Bell, Jermaine Bishop and Richard Wesley are among those who look the part). He also made note of the Longhorns welcoming “high-level second, third and fourth-round picks” into the program ahead of his sixth season as head coach.
    Eventually, the newcomers become veterans on various career trajectories. Like NFL rookies, when their contracts are winding down and franchises must decide whether to extend them on longer, more lucrative second contracts or let them become unrestricted free agents, the rising third and fourth-year college players must accept their role for the coming season (even if it’s diminished and comes with a pay cut) or bet on themselves, either as a transfer or in the draft.
    Those are the discussions Texas and every other Power Four program eying a championship run are in the process of having with their players. The freedom of movement from which players benefit is the same mechanism that allows coaches to dictate the terms and conditions a player must accept to remain a part of the program.
    Between defections to the portal and NFL draft departures, only 10 of the 25 high school signees from the 2023 recruiting class are on track to be a part of the 2026 squad. Trevor Goosby, Jelani McDonald and Quintrevion Wisner are among the 10, meaning the number will go down should any of them declare for the draft.
    While the staff has a group of young players they’ll look to develop behind the scenes, the bulk of the roster movement ahead of what figures to be Arch Manning’s last season with the Longhorns will be moves the organization makes with an all-in mindset. It’s not ideal, and it can lead to decisions neither side of the table wants to make, but it’s the nature of the beast given college football’s current structure (or lack thereof).
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