Jeff Howe

I can't remember the last time I struggled this much to pick a winner in a Texas game. I've boiled it down to drawing first blood and defending the run with a light box as the two things the Longhorns can do to win. The line-of-scrimmage battle is nuanced. But Texas can win in the trenches against Ohio State. We'll see if the Longhorns will in about 24 hours.

It’s time to tackle “One Burning Question,” an On Texas Football in-season feature where we’ll examine a question facing the Texas Longhorns entering a game. On Sunday, we’ll revisit the question to see whether Steve Sarkisian’s team answered it successfully. This week, with No. 4 Texas hosting No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC), the question is: Can the Longhorns win the line-of-scrimmage battle against the Buckeyes? In the back-to-back losses the Longhorns have suffered at the hands of the Buckeyes, rushing yards have only told part of the story in the trenches. When Ohio State ended Texas’ 2024 season with a College Football Playoff semifinal win in the Cotton Bowl, the Buckeyes out-rushed the Longhorns by 23 yards, 81-58. Last season, Texas took advantage of Matt Patricia deploying more resources to defend Arch Manning and the passing game, racking up 166 yards on 37 attempts and leaving Columbus with a plus-89 edge on the ground in a loss. Rushing yardage isn’t the only way to determine which team wins in the trenches. Those other areas, unfortunately, have been problematic for the Longhorns against the Buckeyes. Fourth down, for instance, was a consequential down in the first two rounds of a college football blue-blood trilogy. The Buckeyes are 2-for-3 on fourth down in their last eight quarters against Texas. One of those conversions was an 18-yard run by Will Howard on fourth-and-2 in the fourth quarter of the Cotton Bowl, which kept a 13-play, 88-yard touchdown drive alive. The other came in last year’s game, when CJ Donaldson scored the first touchdown on a 1-yard run that capped a 13-play, 80-yard drive. The Longhorns, meanwhile, went 1-for-3 on fourth down in the Cotton Bowl, with one failed attempt resulting in Jack Sawyer’s game-clinching 83-yard scoop-and-score. Texas was 1-for-5 on fourth down in last season’s loss, including a failed quarterback sneak on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line, a fourth-quarter drive that stalled in the red zone and the offense’s last possession, which ended with Manning finding Jack Endries under duress two yards short of the line to gain on fourth-and-5 from midfield. Clearly, Ohio State’s pressure on Manning last season and Quinn Ewers in the Cotton Bowl significantly tipped the scales in the Buckeyes’ favor. The Longhorns pressured Howard on 11 of his 36 dropbacks (a 30.6 percent pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus) in the CFP semifinal, resulting in an interception and two sacks. Ohio State turned the heat up a few more notches on Ewers, who was pressured on 20 of 44 dropbacks (45.5 percent pressure rate). Ewers was 6-for-15 throwing the football when pressured and was sacked four times. Texas only pressured Julian Sayin on five of his 20 dropbacks last season (the Buckeyes played with heavier personnel and designed a game plan that protected Sayin from making a potential game-changing mistake in his first start), with no negative plays to show for the few times the Longhorns moved the Heisman Trophy finalist off his spot. Manning was pressured on 41.2 percent of his dropbacks (14 of 34), and while his ability to get away from the rush resulted in only one Ohio State sack, a 5-for-10, 60-yard day with an interception meant Patricia’s defense did its job. Sarkisian's offseason changes to the roster and coaching staff weren’t just to get over the hump against the Buckeyes. Still, a quarterback with a full season as QB1 under his belt, a running back room with a new coach and an infusion of juice from the transfer portal, a revamped offensive line, the addition of a havoc defender the caliber of Rasheem Biles and Will Muschamp’s desire to dictate the terms of the game when sending in the defensive signals should make Texas more equipped to finish the job in the fourth quarter. Given the perimeter skill talent on the field and the quarterback play on both sides, the winner could be decided by whichever team can defend the run more often with a light box (six defenders or less). Both offensive play-callers (former Atlanta Falcons head coach and Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith calls the plays for Ryan Day's Ohio State offense) don’t mind using 12 personnel (two tight ends). Getting either offense to keep an extra tight end on the field is a win, with a capable running back or wide receiver relegated to spectator status on the sideline. The Longhorns have the tools to protect Manning, disrupt Sayin and control the running game well enough to win. We're roughly 24 hours away from seeing how it plays out and whether Texas can deliver a powerful statement that 2026 might indeed be different. View full news story

Woke up this morning still feeling like Texas needs to the into the 30s to win the game. Need Sark to come out aggressive.

They very easily could be in there. For me, after Sisemore and Banks, there are some serious debates to be had.

That’s fair. I thought Day/Hartline went into a shell last season and protected Sayin when they realized Texas couldn’t move the ball consistently. After the first couple of drives, Ohio State seemed content to play for field position and letting the defense carry the day.

Sayin isn’t as athletic as Arch, but I wouldn’t call him immobile. He can run if he has to, he just usually doesn’t. I expect them to go after Cryer and the safeties in coverage. That’s the first place I’d attack if I were facing Texas.

The tackles are a concern. If you listen to an Ohio State media or fans online, you’d think the offensive line was abysmal. In openers, it’s usually never as good as you think and never as bad as you think.

39-33. Some things you never forget. Muschamp has said the best offense he’s ever coached against was the 2008 OU offense. That group scored 35 (thankfully, Texas was 10 points better that day).

To what extent Sark uses Arch in the running game (outside of him scrambling) is a wild card.

It would be a nice change of pace. I want Sark to approach this like he’s approached the OU game, when he has no problem going for the throat.

I didn’t consult with anybody before writing this article. I watch games, look at the numbers and give my opinion. Not everybody has to agree with my take and that’s fine if you don’t. Talent only goes so far in a game like this when both sides are very good. Muschamp will take some risks while hunting big plays. Ohio State has elite playmakers on the outside and while they’ll get to Sayin, there will be times when he beats the blitz or pressure and gets a big play. Like I said, if Texas wins, they need to force the issue and make it a track meet. I think a high-scoring game favors Texas.

If Texas wins, I think the Longhorns have to get the game into the 30s. Texas is 38-6 under Sark when scoring at least 30 points.

It’s time to determine "Who Has the Edge?," an On Texas Football in-season feature that looks at how the Texas Longhorns stack up with their opponent. The college football world will be fixated on the Forty Acres this week, with No. 4 Texas hosting No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ABC). With a slew of future NFL players littering the Longhorn and Buckeye rosters, the edges in the six categories were determined by the slimmest of margins. The game wasn’t decided until late in the fourth quarter the last two times Texas and Ohio State met on the field. Saturday’s tilt isn’t expected to be different. WHEN TEXAS RUNS THE FOOTBALL Matt Patricia’s decision to drop more defenders into coverage against Arch Manning in Columbus last season and Steve Sarkisian’s willingness to stick with the running game (37 rushing attempts were the third-most the Longhorns recorded in a game last season) played big roles in how well the Longhorns moved the ball on the ground against the Buckeyes. It was arguably the most consistent the Texas running game was in 2025. According to Pro Football Focus, Texas gained 55 yards on 15 A- and B-gap rushing attempts (3.7 yards per carry) against Ohio State last season. Patricia’s plan should focus on denying the Longhorns wide-zone runs, which tend to be Sarkisian’s go-to calls when the running game is clicking. Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown and the other Texas ball-carriers bouncing duo concepts to the outside should also be a point of emphasis for the Buckeyes. When that’s happened in the recent past, Sarkisian hasn’t had a counterpunch. To that end, expect the Longhorn running game to look a lot different schematically than the relatively bland plan of attack against Texas State, which produced inconsistent results. The Texas running backs had four of their combined 31 carries go for at least 10 years. Nine of those 31 carries were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. A combination of the running backs making more decisive cuts and blockers staying engaged longer (straining, as Sarkisian calls it) will go a long way toward the Longhorns achieving more ideal balance. The Buckeyes should feel confident stopping the run with a light box, with Eddrick Houston and John Walker leading the charge up front and Christian Alliegro and Payton Pierce cleaning things up behind them. Needless to say, forcing Ohio State to devote an extra defender to stopping the run (which is easier said than done, especially if Derrek Cooper can’t go after injuring his right ankle in the opener) will open things up for Manning in ways he didn’t have available to him inside the Horseshoe last season. EDGE: Ohio State WHEN OHIO STATE RUNS THE FOOTBALL Just looking at the box score from the Buckeyes’ season-opening 56-3 rout of Ball State, one might think the running game was dominant. Ohio State rushed for 237 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), with Bo Jackson and Ja’Kobi Jackson both gaining 89 yards on the ground and finding the end zone in the resounding victory. However, two long second-half touchdown runs (a 65-yarder by Bo Jackson and a 49-yard run by Ja’Kobi Jackson) bolstered the raw numbers. The Buckeyes ended the first half with only 35 net yards on 21 carries (2.1 yards per attempt). Six of Ohio State's 28 running back carries were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, while 20 attempts gained five yards or less. Like Sarkisian’s offense against Texas State, Arthur Smith utilized 12 personnel to fuel the Buckeye running game. Heavier personnel could force Will Muschamp’s hand when deciding how many defenders to devote to stopping the run. That would put more pressure on a Texas secondary entering the game under the gun, knowing it has to deal with Jeremiah Smith for 60 minutes. While the Longhorns will face better personnel than they did in the opener, Ohio State's offensive line isn't as big as Texas State's. The Buckeyes also won’t push the tempo like the Bobcats did (few FBS offenses do), which should keep Texas' defensive linemen from getting gassed as quickly as they did last week. EDGE: Texas WHEN TEXAS THROWS THE FOOTBALL After struggling for three and a half quarters, Manning found something that worked late in last year’s loss to Ohio State. He nailed a few vertical throws, including a 28-yard strike to Ryan Wingo and a 32-yard touchdown to Parker Livingstone; a 30-yard completion to Jack Endries kickstarted the Longhorns’ final possession, which ultimately ended in a turnover on downs in the closing minutes of regulation. Manning's trip to Columbus mirrored his development throughout the 2025 season. Although it took a while for Sarkisian to figure out what gets Manning going, what keeps him hot and what can get him out of a lull, the quarterback’s trajectory took off once he and the play-caller got on the same page. Manning has more seasoned personnel around him for his second start against the Buckeyes in 378 days. The Ohio State defense Manning faced last season is also replacing five of the first 62 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Buckeyes still ooze talent. But Manning might find it more comfortable operating at home, without trying to identify where elite playmakers like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles (three of the first 11 picks in the draft) are lined up before the snap. Ohio State isn’t facing the same quarterback who was struggling to keep his head above water in last season’s meeting. Manning, who quarterbacked Texas to three wins over top-10 opponents (two at home) last season, has proven himself as one of the top scrambling quarterbacks in the country, meaning he can make Patricia's call wrong, even when everything leading up to the time he takes off with the football looks right. EDGE: Texas WHEN OHIO STATE THROWS THE FOOTBALL Jeremiah Smith is due for a big game against the Longhorns. After holding him to one catch for three yards in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Cotton Bowl, Texas bottled him up last season, limiting him to 43 yards on six catches (with two drops, according to PFF). What’s interesting about Smith’s 30-game career with the Buckeyes is that in the four losses he's played in, he’s put up massive numbers. Smith had a 100-yard game in three of the four losses and scored in two games. Smith's only sub-100-yard game in a loss was a five-catch, 35-yard performance against Michigan in 2024, when Will Howard took a big hit early, which helped derail the Ohio State passing attack. In the two wins over Texas, when Smith was held in check, Carnell Tate (and Emeka Egbuka in the Cotton Bowl) made clutch catches. Are Devin McCuin, Brandon Inniss, Chris Henry Jr. or Legend Bey ready to step up if the Longhorns successfully put the clamps on Smith again? For Muschamp’s defense to pull its weight in a winning effort, the plan must also include pressuring Julian Sayin. There might not be a better quarterback in the country than Sayin when he’s got a clean pocket. Sayin’s PFF grade of 94.4 from a clean pocket (82.1-percent completion rate, 2,883 yards and 25 touchdown passes against five interceptions) led FBS in 2025. In Ohio State’s losses to Indiana and Miami, however, Sayin was pressured on 39.2 percent of his dropbacks. Sayin completed just 42.1 percent of his passes (8-for-19) for 93 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, with 10 of the pressures leading to a sack. The question is whether Muschamp’s fronts and coverages can work well enough together to get to Sayin. If they do, it'll lead to the Longhorns generating the kind of pressure that will create opportunities for negative plays and turnovers. EDGE: Ohio State SPECIAL TEAMS The punters played a big role in last season’s game in Columbus, with Jack Bouwmeester’s ability to flip field position helping Texas stay in the game. Joe McGuire, who punted a career-high six times against the Longhorns, is back for Ohio State, while Bouwmeester’s replacement, Mac Chiumento, didn’t punt against Texas State. The Longhorns enter the game with the most proven return man on either side. Will the Buckeyes kick to Ryan Niblett? Former Baylor kicker Connor Hawkins connected on all seven extra points against Ball State. Hawkins, however, didn’t attempt a field goal, so the Liberty Hill product's first try in a Buckeye uniform will be under the lights at DKR. From that standpoint, one of the most important moments of last week’s win over Texas State might’ve been Gianni Spetic attempting and making a 48-yard field goal. Texas has suffered numerous kicking game lapses in games of this magnitude under Sarkisian. The Longhorns have the edge in the third phase on paper, but Jeff Banks needs to make sure they maximize it and make it an advantage on Saturday. EDGE: Texas COACHES Steve Casula is one of Sarkisian’s offseason staff additions that could help Texas against Ohio State. Casula was an analyst at Michigan in 2021, when the Wolverines started a four-game winning streak over the Buckeyes. Casula, who works with the Longhorn tight ends, didn’t bring a secret sauce with him from Ann Arbor that will magically give Texas an edge on Saturday. Still, Casula has been on a staff that put together a successful, winning game plan against a Ryan Day-coached Ohio State squad. Where Casula's impact could be felt is when the Longhorns run the football. The tight ends set a physical, nasty tone in the running game against Texas State. The offensive line and running backs following their lead could give Texas the toughness it needs to get over the hump against an opponent of the Buckeyes' caliber. Day has two former NFL head coaches calling plays on offense (Arthur Smith) and defense (Patricia). Even as Day has had to fill more coaching vacancies than he'd probably like throughout his tenure, Ohio State is in the discussion for boasting the best coaching staff in the country year in and year out. After losing to the Buckeyes in back-to-back seasons with largely the same group of coaches, will Sarkisian's staff changes be enough to help the Longhorns slay the scarlet-and-gray dragon? EDGE: Ohio State SCORE PREDICTION Texas 34, Ohio State 31 View full news story