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  • March Madness Report: Huge opportunity in Waco (Monday 11:30 a.m. CST)

    Gerry Hamilton

    By Gerry Hamilton

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    March Madness Report: Huge opportunity in Waco 

    Let's begin the Big Monday showdown in Waco with a chance to end a bad streak. The Texas Longhorns have the opportunity to do something tonight the program hasn't accomplished since February 1, 2016 - win at Baylor. That's right, it's been eight years since Texas walked out of the Ferrell Center with a victory. Of course that would be nice, but there are much more important and bigger things on the table tonight. 

    With last weeks wins at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in Austin, the Longhorns are back inside the top 30 of the NCAA NET rankings. Texas begins the week at No. 27. That means Texas is right there on the No. 7 seed line, and in position to avoid the dreaded 8/9 seed game winner against a No. 1 seed in the Round of 32.

    A win tonight would unequivocally change the trajectory of Texas' potential seeding in the NCAA Tournament. If Texas pulled the upset (Baylor a 6.5 point favorite), the Horns would have a real shot to move to the 6/7 seed line headed into the regular season finale against arch-rival Oklahoma Saturday. 

    OnTexasFootball takes a look at the various rankings and scenarios headed into tonights game. 

    Texas NCAA Tournament seeding scenarios

    Win at No. 15 Baylor: Texas moves to the 6/7 seed line. Would be a big mover/trajectory win. Would give Texas 6 Quad wins, and five Big 12 road wins. Would give Texas a fourth win over a ranked opponent this season. Would set up a very strong finish to the regular season with shot at 10-8 in Big 12 play. 

    Loss at No. 15 Baylor: No pain, unless it's a really bad showing. Baylor is favored by 6.5 for good reason. Texas strength of schedule ascends tonight no matter the outcome. 

    Loss at Baylor, and win Saturday against Oklahoma: Would keep Texas on that 7/8 seed line making a win in the Big 12 Tournament paramount. Would be a third Quad 2 win. And get Texas to 20 wins, and a 9-9 Big 12 record. 

    Loss at Baylor and to Oklahoma: Texas would be on the 9/10 seed line, and limp into the Big 12 Tournament in need of a win. Would mean 19-12, and 8-10 in Big 12 play. 

    Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
    3/4 @ No. 15 Baylor 
    3/9 Oklahoma 

    NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (March 1)
    Texas is No. 27 in NCAA NET headed into the game tonight. The Horns moved up 13 spots last week from No. 40 with wins at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in Austin.

    The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. 

    Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
    No. 13 @ Baylor 

    Quad 2 game remaining:
    No. 41 Oklahoma 

    T-Rank 
    Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Monday games.

    2024 Ken Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
    Texas checks in at No. 26 headed into this week. Texas began last week at No. 28 prior to the two victories. 

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    Hermanator

    Team completely lost focus once Baylor went to a 1-3-1 and Disu went down. Very bad offensive sets and poor defensive rotations. 

    Teams that make runs in the tourney can't lose focus like this. This team is close but not quite good enough outside of Abmas who can't win it by himself. 

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    dentonhorn
    8 hours ago, Neil Leininger said:

    Season is over if Disu tore his ACL like it looked like.

    With Disu the absolute upside would be sweet 16, without, win one is the best. Makes a huge difference but this bunch wasn’t going too far anyway. 

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    dentonhorn
    9 hours ago, Hermanator said:

    Team completely lost focus once Baylor went to a 1-3-1 and Disu went down. Very bad offensive sets and poor defensive rotations. 

    Teams that make runs in the tourney can't lose focus like this. This team is close but not quite good enough outside of Abmas who can't win it by himself. 

    Coaching does matter, you hire a coach with a mediocre resume and you get what you saw on paper. 

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    agentmule
    25 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    Zero chance to make noise without Disu. And just when Texas was starting to play their best/maximize what they have, of course. 

    Disu overcame stomach bug only to injure his knee?!? Poor kid.

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    Robert Maislin

    @Gerry Hamilton, what % of UT disappointing on the hard wood this year has been a lacking roster vs Terry not being up for the challenge of the job in game?

     

    Couldn't help but notice he again chose to not utilize a TO as we let the game slip away last night on Baylor's big 20-4 run.

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    HookemHorns
    40 minutes ago, Robert Maislin said:

    @Gerry Hamilton, what % of UT disappointing on the hard wood this year has been a lacking roster vs Terry not being up for the challenge of the job in game?

     

    Couldn't help but notice he again chose to not utilize a TO as we let the game slip away last night on Baylor's big 20-4 run.

    Not Gerry but I think RT did well with the roster we have. The freshman both bailing really hurt the roster construction, and Shedrick/Weaver/Disu all being hurt during the offseason hurt as well. 
     

    IMO we need to see how this offseason goes and how next season turns out. If he can get a good team next year between returning players/freshman signees/portal players than he may have a shot at sticking around. 


    This roster was poorly constructed but it is what it is and it’s hard to know how much losing those freshman hurt RT’s vision for this team. 
     

    Development has been hit and miss. Hunter seems like he has regressed. Weaver is getting better and better. Mitchell has developed but not as much as I hoped. 

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    Neil Leininger
    28 minutes ago, HookemHorns said:

    Not Gerry but I think RT did well with the roster we have. The freshman both bailing really hurt the roster construction, and Shedrick/Weaver/Disu all being hurt during the offseason hurt as well. 
     

    IMO we need to see how this offseason goes and how next season turns out. If he can get a good team next year between returning players/freshman signees/portal players than he may have a shot at sticking around. 


    This roster was poorly constructed but it is what it is and it’s hard to know how much losing those freshman hurt RT’s vision for this team. 
     

    Development has been hit and miss. Hunter seems like he has regressed. Weaver is getting better and better. Mitchell has developed but not as much as I hoped. 

    More to the point, you can't turn over your roster every year in the portal. If you take a Kelvin Sampson approach you will have a better baseline.

    The only HS kid that signed with Texas and has been the program more than one year is Alex Anamewke and Mitchell, that just isn't sustainable long term. compare that to Houston who has Shead, Sharp, Roberts, Francis, Arceneaux, and Walker. All key contributors though Arceneaux and Walker have been injured this season. 

    Edited by Neil Leininger
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    Neil Leininger
    7 hours ago, dentonhorn said:

    Coaching does matter, you hire a coach with a mediocre resume and you get what you saw on paper. 

    So what would say about a coach on his 3rd team that had a 205-140 (.594) overall record, with a 2-4 tournament record was?

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    dentonhorn
    21 minutes ago, Neil Leininger said:

    So what would say about a coach on his 3rd team that had a 205-140 (.594) overall record, with a 2-4 tournament record was?

    What league did that coach participate in? 

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