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  • Oklahoma State a must win? Or need to win?

    Gerry Hamilton

    By Gerry Hamilton

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    Oklahoma State a must win? Or need to win?

    The Texas Longhorns (18-10, 7-8) will take the court at 1 p.m. CST at The Moody Center against Oklahoma State firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night's win at Texas Tech.

    There is one big question heading into today's game. Is this a must win game? Or need to win game? Answers could vary. 

    OnTexasFootball believes this is a "must win" game for Texas, and the reasons are simple. 

    Why is Oklahoma State a "must win" game? 

    The main reason for me is the latest Bracketology by ESPN's Joe Lunardi. The win Tuesday night instantly gave Texas the ability to end up a 7 seed if they win two of the last three. Lunardi currently has Texas as a No. 8 seed in the UConn region. That is NOT where any 8/9 seed desires to be. 

    Then there is not limping into postseason play. Winning three of the last four regular season games would be a trending up in the eyes of the committee headed into postseason play. Again, better chance to get off the 8/9 seed line. 

    Another reason today is a must win is for the dreamers! That would give Texas the shot at actually ascending to a No. 6 seed if Texas won the last three games of the regular season. Sure Texas has won four Big 12 road games, but none of those teams have the overall talent and scoring ability of Baylor. With that said, a win today would set up an opportunity Monday night to ascend late in the season. That is without question. Texas hasn't won more than two Big 12 games in a row this season, so another opportunity to ascend should the Horns handle business today. 

    Does Texas have to win to make the Big Dance? No. Does winning the home games remaining (Oklahoma to end regular season) place Texas on the No. 7 seed line headed into the Big 12 Tournament? Possibly. Or at least sets up a scenario where Texas could ascend to a No. 7 seed with one Big 12 Tournament victory.  

    Winning two of the last three would also put Texas at 20-11, and 9-9 in Big 12 play. Both of those records would help come seeding time on Selection Sunday. 

    Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
    3/2 Oklahoma State 
    3/4 @ No. 15 Baylor 
    3/9 Oklahoma 

    NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (March 1)
    Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET headed into weekend games. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40 with the win over Texas Tech.

    The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. 

    Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
    No. 14 @ Baylor 

    Quad 2 game remaining:
    No. 41 Oklahoma 

    Quad 3 games remaining:
    No. 112 Oklahoma State 

    T-Rank 
    Texas is No. 24 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Saturday games.

    2024 Ken Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
    Texas checks in at No. 26 headed into weekend games. That is up from No. 28 after the Texas Tech victory. 

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    Just now, agentmule said:

    must win. need momentum and confidence. 

    That's where I come out. 

    You don't want to drop this game and then Baylor ... and possibly get into a "must win" game to end regular season either IMO

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    Here is my one major thing with this Texas team ... and why it's important to get to a No. 7 seed ...

    This team has A LOT of NCAA Tournament experience. Max Abmas, Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell and Brock Cunningham have played deep into NCAA Tournaments. Kadin Shedrick has tournament experience too. 

    But more importantly, with Abmas and Disu ... Texas has the ability to win a couple of games in the tournament because they have the ability to score 75-79 points in a neutral site/near talent neutralized scenario ... this team finishing the regular season strong gives two talented offensive players the chance to string a couple of strong games together in the Big Dance. 

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    7 minutes ago, therustler said:

    OSU has the type of players that give Texas trouble…. Athletic. Need to Disu to stay out of foul trouble. 

    And have been playing better of late after some real struggles early-mid way through the season

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    Oklahoma State not a good free throw shooting team ... 69.1%. Just okay from three ... 34.4%. 

    +0.5 rebound advantage

    Not good defensively ... surrender 45.6% from the field. 287th in the country 

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    harveycmd

    I know Bobby has defended Terry, but I think the season's return clearly indicates he's not the guy. My guess is we'll meander along for two or three years as a barely tournament team.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    Some Texas national rankings ...

    FG % defense - 128th at 42.8%

    Blocked shots per game - 34th at 4.8 per game

    Rebound +/- - +1.2 

    Effective FG % offense - 76th at 53.3% 

    Free throw % - 70th at 74.5%

    Three-point % - 63rd at 36.25% (up to 36.8% after Tuesday night) 

    Scoring offense - 125th at 75.5 ppg

     

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    2 minutes ago, harveycmd said:

    I know Bobby has defended Terry, but I think the season's return clearly indicates he's not the guy. My guess is we'll meander along for two or three years as a barely tournament team.

    Will be interesting to follow as they get bigger guards on the roster ... player development of guys returning will be the key for me. 

    Got to match the HS and portal recruiting very well to construct the needed roster in college hoops ...

    Just look at last years Sweet 16... Miami went to FF, and will not make the Big Dance this year. FAU Final Four last year, limping into the tournament (if they make it) unless they finish strong. Gonzaga still on the bubble. Kansas State Elite 8 last year, and won't make it. 

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    harveycmd

    Terry's game management has been seriously lacking. His inability to establish consistency has been a problem. No definable offense or team identity has been a problem. 

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    ClubWhatever
    7 minutes ago, harveycmd said:

    Terry's game management has been seriously lacking. His inability to establish consistency has been a problem. No definable offense or team identity has been a problem. 

    His "offense" is about having the two most talented players create for themselves.  It's basically two man game.  He wants the ball in the hands of Abmas and Disu and then asks them to create opportunities to shoot.  When the opponent has a good defensive plan and personnel for those two, it leads to helter skelter, because we don't have any other players who can consistently score.  We need a talent infusion of players who can put the ball in the basket.  We are also small as in we get pushed around under the basket.  Onyemi being unplayable has hurt, and Shedrick needs to bulk up.

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    harveycmd

    harveycmd 509

    Posted (edited)

    13 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

    His "offense" is about having the two most talented players create for themselves.  It's basically two man game.  He wants the ball in the hands of Abmas and Disu and then asks them to create opportunities to shoot.  When the opponent has a good defensive plan and personnel for those two, it leads to helter skelter, because we don't have any other players who can consistently score.  We need a talent infusion of players who can put the ball in the basket.  We are also small as in we get pushed around under the basket.  Onyemi being unplayable has hurt, and Shedrick needs to bulk up.

    I don't deny this. How many games has he made a positive difference in this season? Maybe two or three. That's it. He lost the game to Miami last year in the Great Eight. A couple of talented guards next year who can't run a real offense won't get us past a marginal tournament team. 

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    ClubWhatever

    Time will tell.   I do agree he does the Barnes thing of allowing runs to go on with no time out, which annoys me.   He also plays non-scoring lineups too often but frankly it's hard to find a scoring lineup with this bunch.   My biggest criticism so far is roster construction.   He brought in some transfers who frankly aren't that good.  Weaver isn't that good but at least he has insane energy and athleticism.   Abmas can score but is a liability on defense.  All the other guys he brought in are pure jags.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    1 hour ago, ClubWhatever said:

    His "offense" is about having the two most talented players create for themselves.  It's basically two man game.  He wants the ball in the hands of Abmas and Disu and then asks them to create opportunities to shoot.  When the opponent has a good defensive plan and personnel for those two, it leads to helter skelter, because we don't have any other players who can consistently score.  We need a talent infusion of players who can put the ball in the basket.  We are also small as in we get pushed around under the basket.  Onyemi being unplayable has hurt, and Shedrick needs to bulk up.

    Correct. Texas has an offensive identity. Tyrese Hunter's lack of development/play has hurt what the entire offensive game plan was headed into the season. 

     

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    1 hour ago, harveycmd said:

    Terry's game management has been seriously lacking. His inability to establish consistency has been a problem. No definable offense or team identity has been a problem. 

    RT's not use of TO's during runs is my issue. It's same thing Rick Barnes has done to his detriment many years. 

    Some truth in what you are saying, and some not IMO. 

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    Glass Joe
    2 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    Here is my one major thing with this Texas team ... and why it's important to get to a No. 7 seed ...

    This team has A LOT of NCAA Tournament experience. Max Abmas, Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell and Brock Cunningham have played deep into NCAA Tournaments. Kadin Shedrick has tournament experience too. 

    But more importantly, with Abmas and Disu ... Texas has the ability to win a couple of games in the tournament because they have the ability to score 75-79 points in a neutral site/near talent neutralized scenario ... this team finishing the regular season strong gives two talented offensive players the chance to string a couple of strong games together in the Big Dance. 

    Another intangible that Texas has entering the first weekend of the NCAA tournament is we are very experienced in playing big games on one days rest.  Texas plays so many games on ESPN “Big Monday” after also playing on Saturdays that we are experienced in the short turnaround game prep (one days rest) - and particularly so against top level competition.  Since the NCAA tournament requires teams to play on this same short turnaround timeframe, this is a subtle advantage for Texas.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    6 minutes ago, Baron said:

    Every game is a must win just for seeding alone. Texas won't survive in the bottom half of the bracket.

    Agreed. Need to hit the 7 seed line. 

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