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  • The issues facing college sports are so vast and so varied, it’s hard for anyone to truly grasp each aspect and the interplay between all of them.

    Yet no person is trying to alter its future (or at least guide it) more than Cody Campbell, the chairman of the Texas Tech board of regents.

    For those unaware, Campbell is a native Texan who played football for Mike Leach at Tech and then entered the professional world as an oil and gas man, eventually becoming a billionaire several times over.

    I spoke to Campbell, who has been running national TV advertisements for two weeks opposing the Score Act during college football games, yesterday evening.

    At the crux of Campbell’s argument are several vital suppositions:

    1. College sports is a public trust. The people (you and I, and every other fan out there) own the assets since most of the universities are taxpayer funded or state-owned.

    Sure, there are private schools like Harvard, SMU or Rice sprinkled in.

    But Texans effectively own UT, A&M, Tech, etc. In fact, most of college football nation-wide is comprised of large state universities. For example, 15 of the 16 schools in the SEC are public entities.

    So as owners of these universities, the public’s interest should come first.

    That’s important because it deals with us - every single one of us - being stewards of the opportunities for future generations of students, whether that’s football, rowing, basketball, softball, baseball, volleyball, etc.

    2. Campbell believes the current system is financially unsustainable for way too many colleges.

    Most schools rely on football and basketball to prop up revenue for the rest of their athletic department. But if some schools can no longer compete at the highest level in those two sports, their revenue will dwindle. The concern is that Olympic sports will be cut either at the outset or eventually in a futile attempt to fund the revenue-makers.

    The hardships, according to Campbell, are creating what amounts to a financial death spiral for college sports as we know it.

    3. Players deserve a real seat at the table. The current involvement of student athletes in NCAA committees is both minimal and largely performative.

    If there are two players and 10 beauracrats on a committee, who is anyone really listening to?

    **

    So what is Campbell actually proposing?

    First, he’s trying to tackle the financial issue.

    Campbell believes that TV and media rights holders are getting a steal.

    College football is by all accounts the second most popular sport in America behind only the NFL.

    Yet college sports media rights (all sports, not just football) are sold for less than half of what the fourth most popular sport (the NBA) receives.

    According to Campbell, college sports receives approximately $5bn per year in media rights agreements from its various partners. The NBA, a less popular sport, by contrast is in the $10bn range.

    How does that occur?

    Market segmentation.

    College football rights are sold in piecemeal fashion. The SEC does its own deal with ESPN. The Big 10, the Big 12, etc., all do the same.

    Campbell believes, and he says consultants back these claims, if college football pooled its rights together, instead of working separately, that there would effectively be an additional $7bn in financial value created annually (or $70bn  over a 10-year time frame).

    College sports would go from making $5bn a year to $12bn, thus being justly paid for being the second most popular sport. And that extra cash could be used to not only keep giving opportunities to all sports at all levels, it could also pay athletes their fair share of NIL.

    On the surface, that sounds like a financial windfall, and a healthy plan for all.

    But some, like the SEC and Big 10, likely think they would be carrying too much of the weight of other conferences. Why should Texas or Ohio State prop up Fresno State?

    Well, Campbell is not naive. He doesn’t think all parties should be treated the same in every single aspect. He said obviously some schools or conferences might share disproportionately in the additional money that media pooling would provide.

    And that’s where the negotiating would and should begin in Campbell’s mind.

    Surely, the Big 12 will ask for more money than the SEC thinks the Big 12 deserves. And vice versa. Just like the conferences have jockeyed for guaranteed slots in an expanded college football playoff.

    Campbell seems to welcome the negotiation on those topics. But he can’t do that unless (or until) the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 is repealed or amended.

    **

    Outside of the financial value brought about by the pooling of media rights, Campbell also believes there are other benefits to be gained by a repealing of the broadcast act.

    He thinks college football could then exert more control over the future of the game rather than ceding too much of that to the TV networks.

    The NFL is seen as a forward-thinking league who controls its media partners whereas college football is largely seen as a reactive one where the networks define the sport.

    In college football, the tail wags the dog way too often.

    Things such as times of games, match-ups, etc., could be easily altered.

    For example, should Texas really be playing a 2:30 game at home in late August just because TV execs say so?

    **

    Campbell believes financial change is just one part of the long-term solution to college sports.

    He believes there should be a parallel push for a new governing body other than the NCAA. The NCAA is “painfully beauracratic”, he says.

    For example, he says they recently reduced the number of subcommittees to rule on an issue from roughly 90 to down to 30.

    Thirty subcommittees? Good luck getting everyone on board in a timely manner.

    No wonder it took the NCAA 3+ years and millions of dollars to deal with something as clear cut as the Michigan sign-stealing scandal.

    As part of a new governance, there should be true athlete representation and negotiation. That representation would cover everything from salary cap, to bargaining rights, scholarship minimums for all sports, and everything in between.

    **

    Campbell’s argument is sound and well thought out.

    But it is concerning to the two major players in college football - the SEC and Big 10.

    Both of those leagues would likely have to cede some of their control over league members and their ability to negotiate their own TV deals to a pooled-party.

    Despite the potential financial windfall, the loss of control (or the threat of it) may be a bridge too far for the SEC or Big 10.

    So that is why college sports is stuck. College football is a great sport but it’s unable to effectively define its own future because too many folks want to protect their piece of the pie.

    **

    Solutions must be negotiated.

    Here’s a potential financial solution:

    If the pooling of money could create an additional $7bn in revenue, why not apportion the additional revenue on the same pro rata basis as current TV networks do?

    Would that work?

    Is that enough to keep not just the football team afloat but also the volleyball team at Fresno State fully funded? Is that enough to make NIL legitimate at Texas,  Ohio State and Texas Tech in football and basketball?

    I don’t know. But at least it’s a starting point for a discussion.

    Whatever rout this takes, we know that rules need to be changed. And convention needs to be challenged.

    Some smart folks need to get in a room and figure it out, not just keep kicking the can down the road.

    **

    To be clear, I’m not taking sides with Campbell, the SEC or the Big 10 here.

    I simply want what’s best for college sports for the long term.

    And what is that in my mind?

    Not reducing opportunities for students across the country, increasing athlete representation, and exerting control over networks in the interest of what is best for the game and the universities.

    The goals sound so simple.

    How do we get there is the issue.

    **

    Thanks to Cody Campbell for his willingness to discuss this topic.

     

     

     

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    Let’s not pretend we weren’t a part of the problem with the ill-conceived Longhorn Network.  
     

    A general truth in life is that anytime someone becomes passionate about something they will spend time and money to try and get better at it or do it more often.  The media has over the last 30 years taken advantage of what used to be one of the more pure athletic endeavors in college football.  When the athletes saw how much the schools were making from ESPN and CBS and Fox deals, they wanted their cut.  The old lie we told ourselves that football supported the academics is an old wives tale now.  For better or worse we are living in a free market system where money is going to either turn college football into another version of the NFL or there will be some kind of return to the old school feeling that college football is more pure than pro sports.  I don’t know if we can put the toothpaste back in the tube, but at least Campbell is trying.  
     

    And don’t think for a minute we don’t have plenty of billionaire supporters too.  We just dont hear about what they are doing publicly.

    This has been one of the more interesting threads ion OTF I’ve seen and I enjoy the spirited debate   I could use a little less of the ad hominems and petty bickering though .  The billionaires are not taking notes from us.

     

    🤘🤘🤘

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
    2 hours ago, alrightalrightalright said:

    I think we're destined for a FBS split into two tiers, FBS1 and FBS2. Pool the media rights for FBS1 and FBS2 as 1 package and sell them. Then distribute the revenue accordingly.

    FBS1: SEC, B1G, Big 12, ACC. Each conference will receive 4 teams yearly in the CFP to build out a 16-team playoff. Notre Dame will have to finally join a conference.

    FBS2: Pac-12, Mountain West, American, Mid-American, Conference USA, Sun Belt. FBS2 will have their own 16-team playoff.

    AI tells me the average Mountain West program earns $3.5M in media rights annually and that they could earn up to $10-13.5M annually if they pool their rights. I assume if the distribution were 80-20 to FBS1, 20% still provides a school earning only $3.5M/year in media rights now, more money in a pooled system.

    We don't blink one bit when we hear about the FCS National Champion. I, like many others, actually watch the FCS Playoffs (while wondering how those fans sit in the Dakotas in snowy, windy December) and enjoy it more than some of the low-level bowls. I probably pay closer attention to these games, too.

    I think we'd feel the exact same way about the FBS2 National Champion. I'd much rather watch the FBS2 Playoffs in sold-out campus stadiums, that have a truly meaningful outcome, than the LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk in SoFi with 90% of the seats empty. Gronk would be entertaining tho.

    The issue with the approach outlined above is the wide disparity WITHIN the “FBS1” group as defined above.  What do you think the individual media rights value is of (say) Wake Forest compared to Alabama?  Or of Cincinnati compared to Notre Dame?  Or of Kansas St compared to Texas?  It’s not a stretch at all to assume the media rights of the biggest brands in the SEC and Big Ten are worth 10x - 20x some of the schools currently in the ACC or B12.  

    For proof? Some of the current B12 schools were part of the MWC, American, or C-USA within the past decade, so that $3.5M media rights figure you cited above actually applied to current B12 schools (UH, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, etc.).  These schools didn’t suddenly become more valuable in the last decade, instead they were simply added to the B12 and got a better media deal on the coattails of Texas, OU, etc.  That gravy train ends in 2031 for these schools.

    Further proof?  SMU is paying the ACC to be a member.  What does this suggest about SMU’s stand-alone media value?  Stanford and Cal were bypassed by the Big Ten when they grabbed USC, UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  Effectively, Stanford and Cal are viewed by the Big Ten as peers of Oregon St and Washington State.  Now, they get a half share of the ACC’s value…which itself will plummet in 2031 when the biggest brands (FSU, Clemson, UNC) exit.

    And on and on.  The hard reality is that there aren’t 64 schools that are peers in terms of economic and media value.  The number is lower - somewhere between 40-48 schools.  This is just like the NFL, where 32 franchises are awarded based on the concept of each franchise bringing a relatively similar market value by occupying a large MSA market.  Economics of franchising 101.  This allows for equal revenue sharing by NFL teams as they pool their markets / MSAs to shop for the highest media rights deals.  This forms the basis of an economically equitable league, where a competitive balance is achieved amongst all 32 franchises, which itself is a key to growing the popularity of the league among fans dispersed across 50 states.  There is a reason to there isn’t an NFL franchise in Boise or Des Moines or Wichita.

    This is where college football is heading.  The same corporations (Disney, Fox, NBC, and CBS) that define the NFL economic model are the ones who signs the media checks for college football.  The only thing left is to decide what is the number of franchises and where are they located to maximize the national viewership interest of major college football.  In my opinion, the SEC and Big Ten will serve as the analogs to the NFC and AFC, and there won’t be a third conference in major college football.

    The biggest issue to resolve is how willing are the dominant revenue drivers in college  football (Texas, ND, tOSU, Bama, UGA, PSU, Michigan, USC, LSU, OU, Florida, etc.) willing to share their name with other schools for the maximization of the national media rights pie for the collective whole of major college football?  I’m guessing it’s 48 schools maximum, though I can see it as low as 42 schools.  I’ll let the data analysts and economic modelers at Disney and Fox figure out the optimized number of schools / MSAs to maximize the media deal.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
    18 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

    The issue with the approach outlined above is the wide disparity WITHIN the “FBS1” group as defined above.  What do you think the individual media rights value is of (say) Wake Forest compared to Alabama?  Or of Cincinnati compared to Notre Dame?  Or of Kansas St compared to Texas?  It’s not a stretch at all to assume the media rights of the biggest brands in the SEC and Big Ten are worth 10x - 20x some of the schools currently in the ACC or B12.  

    For proof? Some of the current B12 schools were part of the MWC, American, or C-USA within the past decade, so that $3.5M media rights figure you cited above actually applied to current B12 schools (UH, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, etc.).  These schools didn’t suddenly become more valuable in the last decade, instead they were simply added to the B12 and got a better media deal on the coattails of Texas, OU, etc.  That gravy train ends in 2031 for these schools.

    Further proof?  SMU is paying the ACC to be a member.  What does this suggest about SMU’s stand-alone media value?  Stanford and Cal were bypassed by the Big Ten when they grabbed USC, UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  Effectively, Stanford and Cal are viewed by the Big Ten as peers of Oregon St and Washington State.  Now, they get a half share of the ACC’s value…which itself will plummet in 2031 when the biggest brands (FSU, Clemson, UNC) exit.

    And on and on.  The hard reality is that there aren’t 64 schools that are peers in terms of economic and media value.  The number is lower - somewhere between 40-48 schools.  This is just like the NFL, where 32 franchises are awarded based on the concept of each franchise bringing a relatively similar market value by occupying a large MSA market.  Economics of franchising 101.  This allows for equal revenue sharing by NFL teams as they pool their markets / MSAs to shop for the highest media rights deals.  This forms the basis of an economically equitable league, where a competitive balance is achieved amongst all 32 franchises, which itself is a key to growing the popularity of the league among fans dispersed across 50 states.  There is a reason to there isn’t an NFL franchise in Boise or Des Moines or Wichita.

    This is where college football is heading.  The same corporations (Disney, Fox, NBC, and CBS) that define the NFL economic model are the ones who signs the media checks for college football.  The only thing left is to decide what is the number of franchises and where are they located to maximize the national viewership interest of major college football.  In my opinion, the SEC and Big Ten will serve as the analogs to the NFC and AFC, and there won’t be a third conference in major college football.

    The biggest issue to resolve is how willing are the dominant revenue drivers in college  football (Texas, ND, tOSU, Bama, UGA, PSU, Michigan, USC, LSU, OU, Florida, etc.) willing to share their name with other schools for the maximization of the national media rights pie for the collective whole of major college football?  I’m guessing it’s 48 schools maximum, though I can see it as low as 42 schools.  I’ll let the data analysts and economic modelers at Disney and Fox figure out the optimized number of schools / MSAs to maximize the media deal.

     

    Here is a visual for the disparity to further show why Campbell is doing this for his own self interest with tech moving forward and not the greater good of the sport. 
     

    image.jpeg.c58a262c1ea342e13eadaf0d422d6983.jpeg

     

    This chart stopped charting in 2023, it’s going to be worse for Big 12 moving forward as well because the data won’t include Texas and Oklahoma in the big 12 viewership numbers that clearly and unequivocally raised the big 12 overall viewership. 

    3 minutes ago, Hashtag said:

    Here is a visual for the disparity to further show why Campbell is doing this for his own self interest with tech moving forward and not the greater good of the sport. 
     

    image.jpeg.c58a262c1ea342e13eadaf0d422d6983.jpeg

     

    This chart stopped charting in 2023, it’s going to be worse for Big 12 moving forward as well because the data won’t include Texas and Oklahoma in the big 12 viewership numbers that clearly and unequivocally raised the big 12 overall viewership. 

    Let me get this straight. A prominent Tech booster is doing what is best for his school. Oh. My. God. 

    45 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

    The issue with the approach outlined above is the wide disparity WITHIN the “FBS1” group as defined above.  What do you think the individual media rights value is of (say) Wake Forest compared to Alabama?  Or of Cincinnati compared to Notre Dame?  Or of Kansas St compared to Texas?  It’s not a stretch at all to assume the media rights of the biggest brands in the SEC and Big Ten are worth 10x - 20x some of the schools currently in the ACC or B12.  

    For proof? Some of the current B12 schools were part of the MWC, American, or C-USA within the past decade, so that $3.5M media rights figure you cited above actually applied to current B12 schools (UH, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, etc.).  These schools didn’t suddenly become more valuable in the last decade, instead they were simply added to the B12 and got a better media deal on the coattails of Texas, OU, etc.  That gravy train ends in 2031 for these schools.

    Further proof?  SMU is paying the ACC to be a member.  What does this suggest about SMU’s stand-alone media value?  Stanford and Cal were bypassed by the Big Ten when they grabbed USC, UCLA, UW, and Oregon.  Effectively, Stanford and Cal are viewed by the Big Ten as peers of Oregon St and Washington State.  Now, they get a half share of the ACC’s value…which itself will plummet in 2031 when the biggest brands (FSU, Clemson, UNC) exit.

    And on and on.  The hard reality is that there aren’t 64 schools that are peers in terms of economic and media value.  The number is lower - somewhere between 40-48 schools.  This is just like the NFL, where 32 franchises are awarded based on the concept of each franchise bringing a relatively similar market value by occupying a large MSA market.  Economics of franchising 101.  This allows for equal revenue sharing by NFL teams as they pool their markets / MSAs to shop for the highest media rights deals.  This forms the basis of an economically equitable league, where a competitive balance is achieved amongst all 32 franchises, which itself is a key to growing the popularity of the league among fans dispersed across 50 states.  There is a reason to there isn’t an NFL franchise in Boise or Des Moines or Wichita.

    This is where college football is heading.  The same corporations (Disney, Fox, NBC, and CBS) that define the NFL economic model are the ones who signs the media checks for college football.  The only thing left is to decide what is the number of franchises and where are they located to maximize the national viewership interest of major college football.  In my opinion, the SEC and Big Ten will serve as the analogs to the NFC and AFC, and there won’t be a third conference in major college football.

    The biggest issue to resolve is how willing are the dominant revenue drivers in college  football (Texas, ND, tOSU, Bama, UGA, PSU, Michigan, USC, LSU, OU, Florida, etc.) willing to share their name with other schools for the maximization of the national media rights pie for the collective whole of major college football?  I’m guessing it’s 48 schools maximum, though I can see it as low as 42 schools.  I’ll let the data analysts and economic modelers at Disney and Fox figure out the optimized number of schools / MSAs to maximize the media deal.

     

    You don’t need 4 paragraphs to prove to me that Alabama is worth more than Wake Forest. I’m well aware. There obviously are steps to work out. The SEC and B1G already receive the largest shares of the pie. I see that staying the same in a new model going forward, otherwise they wouldn’t agree to any change.

    5 minutes ago, alrightalrightalright said:

    You don’t need 4 paragraphs to prove to me that Alabama is worth more than Wake Forest. I’m well aware. There obviously are steps to work out. The SEC and B1G already receive the largest shares of the pie. I see that staying the same in a new model going forward, otherwise they wouldn’t agree to any change.

    So why push this if it’s going to be the same? lol this is what I meant when I said he’s creating a problem that doesn’t exist to fix something that isn’t broke just so Tech can be guaranteed as part of the future. Especially with big 12 2031 deal going to be not very good while sec and bigs continue to grow. 

    Edited by Hashtag
    Just now, Hashtag said:

    So why push this if it’s going to be the same? lol this is what I meant when I said he’s creating a problem that doesn’t exist to fix something that isn’t broke just so Tech can be guaranteed as part of the future. 

    I don’t care about Tech or what Cody Campbell is doing. I shared where I think this ends up, which is the Power 4 splitting away from the Group of 6.

    1 minute ago, alrightalrightalright said:

    You don’t need 4 paragraphs to prove to me that Alabama is worth more than Wake Forest. I’m well aware. There obviously are steps to work out. The SEC and B1G already receive the largest shares of the pie. I see that staying the same in a new model going forward, otherwise they wouldn’t agree to any change.

    The ACC as we know it will be going away in 2031.  There’s no need to consider the B12 after the few valuable schools (ASU, Utah, Colorado) leave that conference to force their way into the P2 after the ACC dissolves in 2031.

     So, the “FSB1” you propose above really needn’t consider the ACC nor B12 as conferences to include in it.  It’ll be two conferences, and any membership from current ACC or B12 schools will be highly restrictive and selective.

     

    • Hook 'Em 1
    2 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

    The ACC as we know it will be going away in 2031.  There’s no need to consider the B12 after the few valuable schools (ASU, Utah, Colorado) leave that conference to force their way into the P2 after the ACC dissolves in 2031.

     So, the “FSB1” you propose above really needn’t consider the ACC nor B12 as conferences to include in it.  It’ll be two conferences, and any membership from current ACC or B12 schools will be highly restrictive and selective.

     

    Yes this I agree with. I included all 4 conferences in the original FBS1 talk track as a handful of programs in the ACC and Big 12 will be selected to make their way over and how else do we reference them than by their current name.

    10 minutes ago, Quinncent McManning, Jr. said:

    Larry Ellison now richest person in the world. Prepare for more money bags at Michigan 

    If he plays this right, Michigan will start outrecruiting Ohio State and Oregon on a regular basis.  That has not been the case for most of my lifetime.  Not sure if they have the right coaching staff in place to maximize that talent, but something to watch over the next few recruiting cycles.

    1 hour ago, Hashtag said:

    Here is a visual for the disparity to further show why Campbell is doing this for his own self interest with tech moving forward and not the greater good of the sport. 
     

    image.jpeg.c58a262c1ea342e13eadaf0d422d6983.jpeg

     

    This chart stopped charting in 2023, it’s going to be worse for Big 12 moving forward as well because the data won’t include Texas and Oklahoma in the big 12 viewership numbers that clearly and unequivocally raised the big 12 overall viewership. 

    Thank for sharing.  This chart summarizes all the discussion points in the posts above very succinctly.  And there are some profound implications:

    * today, there are 65 teams across the P4 conferences (inc ND).  If only 18 teams generate half the media revenue of the entire D1 (140 schools), that implies that 47 schools in P4 conferences are being somewhat subsidized by the big 18 revenue schools.  If you prefer softer language, 47 schools currently in P4 are receiving outsized media revenue relative to their own individual media revenue value.

    * it also implies that more than half of the current P2 schools (SEC and Big Ten collectively are 34 schools today) are below average contributors to their own conferences media revenue.  Note; there are 15 current P2 schools on the list of 18 schools above.  In other words, even within the P2 conferences, 15 schools pull more than half the revenue weight of the other 18 schools.  This is what I mean when I state the next great battle in college sports may be WITHIN the P2 conferences.  Think Vandy, Rutgers, Minnesota, or Northwestern being a part of the final 40-48 schools of major college football.  Hmm…

    *  Once the largest ACC schools (Clemson, FSU, UNC) are added to the mix, it’s doubtful that any other ACC or Big 12 schools will be above mean (average) contributors to the media revenue generation of the major college football league.  NONE!  This is why the biggest 18-20 schools will be very reluctant to expand the P2 conferences beyond the 40-48 schools mentioned above.

     * To bring things full circle, you now should understand why Cody Campbell is worried about the future of Texas Tech.  Keep in mind, Campbell is now the Chairman of the Board of Trustees at Tech, not just some football booster.  His school’s  future is predicated on being part of the finalized major college football league in 2031, and he realizes he’ll be part of the “subsidized” group of schools, NOT the group of outsized revenue generators.  And that’s going to be a tough sell for a Lubbock, TX school.

    • Hook 'Em 2



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