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What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament after win at Texas Tech?

By Gerry Hamilton

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What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

The Texas Longhorns once again ripped out the hearts of a moblike Texas Tech fan base Tuesday night. The Longhorns responded from one rough day at Kansas with an 81-69 win at Texas Tech Tuesday night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. 

Texas (18-10, 7-8) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, and is firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night.  

OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to continue to be comfortably in the tourney.

Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
3/2 Oklahoma State 
3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 28)
Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET after the win at Texas Tech. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40.

The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 2-1 vs. Quad 3 and 9-0 vs. Quad 4. 

Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
No. 14 @ Baylor 

Quad 2 game remaining:
No. 40 Oklahoma 

Quad 3 games remaining:
No. 113 Oklahoma State 

T-Rank 
Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings after Tuesday night.

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
Texas checks in at No. 28 after the win at Texas Tech.

What it means for Texas

The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday nights win. The resume continues to be aided by five Quad 1 wins and four Big 12 road wins. Only 14 teams in all of college basketball have more Quad 1 wins than Texas, and one of those is not in a Power 5 conference. 

While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 25 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked in the 17-20 area. Texas' Big 12 schedule will carry a lot of weight when it comes to getting in the tournament, and seeding. 

Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. There currently nine Big 12 teams projected to get in the Big Dance.

Texas and seeding:

Scenario 1: 20-11, 9-9 is likely a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

Scenario 2: 19-12, 8-10 would likely be a 8-9 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. That would mean an 0-3 finish to the regular season, which is highly unlikely. 

Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10 and 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning the last four games (Texas Tech starting the streak), including at Baylor on Monday.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. The Longhorns haven't won three Big 12 games in a row this season. 

    • Hook 'Em 9

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    First Round Pick

    Assistant Regional Manager

    Supporters

    Considering a 7-11 Big 12 team has made the tournament each of the last two years, I think last night pretty much locked up a spot. Not like the bubble is full of good times anyway, and certainly not ones with 4 road Q1 wins.

    The committee has shown in previous years they don't weight performances in the conference tournament super heavily, so we definitely need to go 2-1 down the stretch here to avoid a 8/9 matchup.

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    2 minutes ago, Assistant Regional Manager said:

    Considering a 7-11 Big 12 team has made the tournament each of the last two years, I think last night pretty much locked up a spot. Not like the bubble is full of good times anyway, and certainly not ones with 4 road Q1 wins.

    The committee has shown in previous years they don't weight performances in the conference tournament super heavily, so we definitely need to go 2-1 down the stretch here to avoid a 8/9 matchup.

    I'm not there if Texas finishes 7-11. That means they lost to Oklahoma State and OU at home to end regular season. That dog won't hunt IMO. 

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    • Junior

    HookemHorns

    Supporters

    That was as satisfying a win as I’ve experienced in awhile. Hat tip to RT, he course corrected and got the team ready for that one. Need that same energy every night, as hard as that is. 
     

    I love following the bubble and agree with your assessment. First priority of course is to make the tourney. But I’d really like to avoid the 8/9 seed line. One win would be tough, but if we did win that’d likely have us playing Purdue or Arizona second round. Both those teams choke consistently but still…

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    1 minute ago, HookemHorns said:

    That was as satisfying a win as I’ve experienced in awhile. Hat tip to RT, he course corrected and got the team ready for that one. Need that same energy every night, as hard as that is. 
     

    I love following the bubble and agree with your assessment. First priority of course is to make the tourney. But I’d really like to avoid the 8/9 seed line. One win would be tough, but if we did win that’d likely have us playing Purdue or Arizona second round. Both those teams choke consistently but still…

    I would love to end Zach Edey's college career. He's been one of the most over hyped college players I have seen. 

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    • Senior

    watty7796

    Members

    First off typical Tech trash, no class.  Second hats off to BC for the statement.  Third UT needs to win 2 more to get in imo.

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Neil Leininger

    Supporters
    39 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    Texas hasn't won more than two Big 12 games in a row this season. I would put the chances of winning four in a row to end the regular season at 10-15%. 

    Maybe I'll be proven wrong!

    With how this team has played lately, they would probably lose to OSU and then go beat Baylor. I think 10-8 is doable now, Baylor doesn't play great defense and is missing a key rotational player. They also play KU on Saturday at home then have the quick turnaround on Monday.

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    • First Round Pick

    Derek Handler

    Members

    Hard to be excited when we all know if Beard was here we'd be discussing if we are a 1 or 2 seed...  

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    • Freshman

    Randy Crownover

    Members

    Glad to slap TT hard. Almost done with the weak tacos.

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    • Freshman

    Randy Crownover

    Members

    Glad to slap TT hard. Almost done with the weak tacos.

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