What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament after win at Texas Tech?

What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

The Texas Longhorns once again ripped out the hearts of a moblike Texas Tech fan base Tuesday night. The Longhorns responded from one rough day at Kansas with an 81-69 win at Texas Tech Tuesday night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. 

Texas (18-10, 7-8) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, and is firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night.  

OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to continue to be comfortably in the tourney.

Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
3/2 Oklahoma State 
3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 28)
Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET after the win at Texas Tech. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40.

The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 2-1 vs. Quad 3 and 9-0 vs. Quad 4. 

Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
No. 14 @ Baylor 

Quad 2 game remaining:
No. 40 Oklahoma 

Quad 3 games remaining:
No. 113 Oklahoma State 

T-Rank 
Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings after Tuesday night.

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
Texas checks in at No. 28 after the win at Texas Tech.

What it means for Texas

The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday nights win. The resume continues to be aided by five Quad 1 wins and four Big 12 road wins. Only 14 teams in all of college basketball have more Quad 1 wins than Texas, and one of those is not in a Power 5 conference. 

While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 25 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked in the 17-20 area. Texas' Big 12 schedule will carry a lot of weight when it comes to getting in the tournament, and seeding. 

Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. There currently nine Big 12 teams projected to get in the Big Dance.

Texas and seeding:

Scenario 1: 20-11, 9-9 is likely a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

Scenario 2: 19-12, 8-10 would likely be a 8-9 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. That would mean an 0-3 finish to the regular season, which is highly unlikely. 

Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10 and 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning the last four games (Texas Tech starting the streak), including at Baylor on Monday.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. The Longhorns haven't won three Big 12 games in a row this season.