Jump to content

  • What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament?

    Gerry Hamilton

    By Gerry Hamilton

     Share

    What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

    The Texas Longhorns will travel to Houston today to take on the No. 3 Cougars at noon Saturday on CBS. 

    Texas (16-8, 5-6) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, but still has work in front of them to punch the ticket. 

    OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to be comfortably in the tourney.

    Texas’ Remaining Schedule
    2/17 @ No. 3 Houston
    2/19 Kansas State
    2/24 @ No. 6 Kansas 
    2/27 @ Texas Tech
    3/2 Oklahoma State 
    3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
    3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

    NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 15)
    Texas is No. 31 in NCAA NET headed into Saturday’s games. 

    The Longhorns are 4-6 in Quad 1 games, 1-1 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. 

    Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
    No. 1 @ Houston
    No. 17 @ Kansas
    No. 26 @ Texas Tech 
    No. 12 @ Baylor 

    Quad 2 game remaining:
    No. 33 Oklahoma 

    Quad 3 games remaining:
    No. 77 Kansas State
    No. 137 Oklahoma State 

    T-Rank 
    Texas is No. 22 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Saturday. 

    2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
    Texas checks in at No. 25 headed into college games this weekend. 

    What it means for Texas

    The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament headed into the weekend. That resume is aided by Quad 1 wins at Oklahoma, and over Baylor and TCU in Big 12 play. 

    While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 30 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked from 20-30 area. 

    Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. 

    Sitting at 5-6 with four Quad 1 road games remaining, 8-10 may be the best case scenario. 

    Texas and seeding:

    Scenario 1: 19-12, 8-10 is likely a 9-10 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

    Scenario 2: 20-11, 9-9 would likely be a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

    Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would likely send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. 

    Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10, 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning five of last seven vs. a very difficult closing stretch of the schedule.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches.

    • Hook 'Em 4
     Share
    Go to news stories

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    HookemHorns

    Agree that 8-10 in the big 12 is the most likely outcome. 
     

    With the way this season has played out I’m “expecting” an unexpected win and expecting an unexpected loss. 

    Probably some nice drama along the way. Seems to the Horns way this year. 
     

    Ultimately I think we punch our ticket to the dance

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    CJ Vogel
    • Moderators

    A seven seed in the tournament would be quite the achievement considering where the trajectory of this team was headed just over a month ago. 

    • Hook 'Em 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    1 minute ago, HookemHorns said:

    Agree that 8-10 in the big 12 is the most likely outcome. 
     

    With the way this season has played out I’m “expecting” an unexpected win and expecting an unexpected loss. 

    Probably some nice drama along the way. Seems to the Horns way this year. 
     

    Ultimately I think we punch our ticket to the dance

    I too think Texas finishes 8-10, and gets in ... and not in the play in game. 

    One thing that could push Texas to 9-9 is if they get to play a Quad 1 team on road with an opponent having a key player out due to injury. Look at Kansas at Texas Tech this week. McCullar is not going to be 100% the rest of the season. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    HookemHorns
    3 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    I too think Texas finishes 8-10, and gets in ... and not in the play in game. 

    One thing that could push Texas to 9-9 is if they get to play a Quad 1 team on road with an opponent having a key player out due to injury. Look at Kansas at Texas Tech this week. McCullar is not going to be 100% the rest of the season. 

    And just generally improved play by the Horns as they continue to gel and work out their best lineups. Hat tip to RT, they’ve come a long ways in the last month or so. 
     

    WV home game showed the ceiling. Let’s hope they keep hitting it. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    1 minute ago, HookemHorns said:

    And just generally improved play by the Horns as they continue to gel and work out their best lineups. Hat tip to RT, they’ve come a long ways in the last month or so. 
     

    WV home game showed the ceiling. Let’s hope they keep hitting it. 

    If Texas continues to play through Abmas and Disu on offense, and Mitchell and Hunter play off those two guys without forcing into bad situations off the bounce too much ... Texas can definitely hit the 75 point mark needed in talent neutralized situations (road or neutral). On defense, Disu and Weaver staying out of foul trouble is the key IMO. We pretty much know who and what this team is, but now they have to maximize it as many times as possible the next month. 

    • Hook 'Em 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    HookemHorns
    10 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    If Texas continues to play through Abmas and Disu on offense, and Mitchell and Hunter play off those two guys without forcing into bad situations off the bounce too much ... Texas can definitely hit the 75 point mark needed in talent neutralized situations (road or neutral). On defense, Disu and Weaver staying out of foul trouble is the key IMO. We pretty much know who and what this team is, but now they have to maximize it as many times as possible the next month. 

    Good stuff. Have missed your basketball content. I’ve learned to trust your eye. Here’s hoping you get to breakdown a March madness matchup or three

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    TexasMDcoach

    This team has just not come together with any consistency at all which is why I think we are still a bubble team.  Are we on the verge of becoming a good team?   We need Disu and Abmas to continue to lead the team and need to get some production from our other guard position which has been woeful at times and Mitchell to attack the basket. I like the insertion of Weaver into the line up and along with Mitchell we are seeing more effort of late which is good.  Bottom line is we need every guy to pick it up and carry his weight. If they do that we can be a good team.  The next couple of games will tell the story imo.  

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    goathumper
    12 minutes ago, Pocono longhorn said:

    They sure do miss Sir Jabari or a player like him.

     

    If Tyrese Hunter were a good player, this team would be a lot different

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    hookem1

    One thing I think it’s important to remember is what transpired with the late attrition of the 2023 recruiting class. This year’s roster looks A LOT different with Holland and Johnson. I think Terry did an okay job piecing the roster together this year but it’s hard with the timing of when the coaching turnover and decommits happened. 

     

    Looking at the 2024 class, I think the future classes will set up our team much better in the future. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    1 hour ago, hookem1 said:

    One thing I think it’s important to remember is what transpired with the late attrition of the 2023 recruiting class. This year’s roster looks A LOT different with Holland and Johnson. I think Terry did an okay job piecing the roster together this year but it’s hard with the timing of when the coaching turnover and decommits happened. 

     

    Looking at the 2024 class, I think the future classes will set up our team much better in the future. 

    I do like the 2024 class, especially at guard. Tre Johnson (6-6) and Cam Scott (6-5) bring size and individual shot making wither perimeter skill. Devon Pryor (6-7) sophomore at wing, Weaver returns ... that ideal off ball skill and size. Chris Johnson also a 6-4 combo guard.

    PG in portal is possibile. 

    If Texas could win out for 6-11 Ulrich Chomche (if he doesn't go to NBA), that would be huge. 

    That's three future first round picks in 2024 class. 

    Rugged, but skilled enough big in portal for sure. Maybe two. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Hermanator

    Been a disappointing season. If they don't make the tournament or barely sneak in and get bounced in the first round, I think Rodney Terry should get only one more season to get it right. This is a whole new era of big time college ball, and with the sheer amount of talent the state of Texas produces combined with the portal and NIL there's no excuse for this program to miss the tournament or barely squeak in. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    51 minutes ago, Jerry K said:

    I think K State and OSU are must win games. They lose either one of those and it’s a bad resume hit. 

    OSU is a must win. Can't lose that one. Need to win all three home games. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    23 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

    Been a disappointing season. If they don't make the tournament or barely sneak in and get bounced in the first round, I think Rodney Terry should get only one more season to get it right. This is a whole new era of big time college ball, and with the sheer amount of talent the state of Texas produces combined with the portal and NIL there's no excuse for this program to miss the tournament or barely squeak in. 

    Year two will tell the story. 

    Problem for Texas basketball is they have had too much coaching turnover in a short amount of time. Beard comes in, and they have Brock Cunningham and have to build a team. Get into tournament, win one game. Beard on track, but then we all know what happened.

    RT gets job, and essentially has Brock Cunningham and injured Dylan Disu for sure coming back and has to build team. Texas needs to get in the tournament this year, and build more in year two. 

    Texas needs some stability to have shot to build, but RT and staff have to win enough to create it. 

    I'm in no way saying RT/Texas is in a position similar to UConn ... but they gave Danny Hurley time to build something and create some stability. He went 16-17 and 19-12 and no NCAA Tourney. Then lost in Round of 64 next two years before the obvious breakthrough. 

    Texas isn't a blue blood basketball program, and the University certainly doesn't approach basketball like they want to be a blue blood. But they have enough with Moody and NIL to compete. 

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    TexasMDcoach

    Gerry, you think Tre Johnson will play here?   Hope he does. He is a sure thing to be a star straight out of the blocks as a freshman.  Been watching him since his early HS days at LHHS and he is as good as they come.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    28 minutes ago, TexasMDcoach said:

    Gerry, you think Tre Johnson will play here?   Hope he does. He is a sure thing to be a star straight out of the blocks as a freshman.  Been watching him since his early HS days at LHHS and he is as good as they come.

    I do think he will play one year at Texas. He likes the idea of being a college player ... and he has nice NIL runway

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Baron
    6 hours ago, CJ Vogel said:

    A seven seed in the tournament would be quite the achievement considering where the trajectory of this team was headed just over a month ago. 

    I'm thinking an eight or nine. which makes for a difficult round two matchup.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    • Moderators
    Gerry Hamilton
    • Moderators
    14 minutes ago, Baron said:

    I'm thinking an eight or nine. which makes for a difficult round two matchup.

    Same place I'm at in seeding, at 8-10 in Big 12

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    Hermanator
    48 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

     

    Texas isn't a blue blood basketball program, and the University certainly doesn't approach basketball like they want to be a blue blood. 

     

    I think that's the part that keeps me from ever being too invested in the basketball program even though I've been watching it and pulling for them since I was a kid. I never have a doubt they'll put everything in to win in football even if they screw it up at times, but seems they feel basketball is something it would be nice to win a title in but not dedicated to go all out to get it done. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites


    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    ×

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.