bierce

I mentioned Larry as a legit recruiting target on the same day the Indiana State coach left and everyone hit the portal. I'm so glad we got him. I'm not all that surprised that three Indiana State starters moved on to P5 programs while Avila (the hyped star) decided to stay away from a P5 conference (football P4 plus Big East). Kent and Larry came here. Conwell went to Xavier. Swope ( a sub 6 foot guard) joined Avila in St. Louis with the former coach. Avila had really impressive stat lines for the season and had a really good a/t ratio, but I always saw a guy that was kind of slow and would likely be exposed playing against a higher level of competition. He had great a/t numbers in the post-season and a really good game against Utah in the NIT semifinals, but otherwise he had very pedestrian numbers against P6 programs in 2023-24. Maybe those teams specifically designed their defenses to stop him, or maybe he's just kind of slow and lacking in athleticism. Or both.

The team toured Europe this summer, and appears to have gone 5-0-1 in exhibition matches with the results of a seventh match not given. The tie was 3-3 against the Hungarian National Team. https://www.si.com/college/texas/news/texas-volleyball-wraps-up-european-tour-ahead-of-24-25-season-01hz9pb54aad?utm_source=RSS This is the first I have heard about the tour. I'd love if anyone can provide more details on the matches.

If you haven't seen the spring match against Texas State from 2/29/24, it is available on youtube. Singletary and Ames show quite well in that match. We should be fine in the middle this year despite replacing O'Neal and Bergmark.

We are doomed to succumb to the pressure to schedule a non FBS team like every other SEC school, so the answer to one of the three is obvious for anyone who has listened to Wally Pryor in the stadium at any time over the last 100 years. Slippery Rock

OU is not much of a threat, but we do get Kentucky and Florida, our two top challengers for the conference title, on the road. That's not nice. But we won the title in 2023 by playing as a 2 seed in Palo Alto, beating 3 straight #1 seeds, and doing so while dropping just 2 sets and winning the points 260-205 in those three matches. And this year's team should be better than last year's team, the loss of O'Neal, Bergmark, Phillips, and Barnes notwithstanding. Tough schedule to be sure, but that means we will be well-seasoned for tough competition come NCAA tournament time. I don't think the NCAA will penalize us for having that tough of a schedule. And I hope everyone took my advice and watched some replays of the spring exhibition games. Ames is already a major contributor and will be a huge force before she is done here. Singletary is going to be an excellent middle blocker for us. Wenaas is stronger than she was until the Final Four, even taking swings from the back row, and Skinner looks like a good bet to go back to back POY. We have more weapons on the front line than we have ever had. Our last big left-handed hitter on the front line was, um, who again? Our front line depth is ridiculous. This doesn't guarantee anything. We've had some greatly talented teams in the past that were poor at handling a serve, but I like our chances this year very much, thank you.

Maybe, but Elliott's last team that failed to win the conference title made it to the NC match. Didn't win, but it got there. I won't be surprised if SEC has two 1 seeds in 2024 NCAA tournament.

OK, but reg season conference titles would be: Back to back to back to back to back to back to back to back (8-peat). Our last season without at least a tie for regular season conference title was 2016.

Well, if Nebraska spent the entire spring and summer learning how to return a serve . . . But if you are referring to the conference title, then sure, SEC is way more loaded than the Big 12 was.

Difficult maybe, but more difficult? I don't think so. Last year we had to replace our top hitter (Eggleston), SKT (our setter), and Fleck (our All-American libero). While O'Neal was nothing short of an absolute goddess at middle blocker and a serving demon to boot, Swindle now has another year of working with Skinner, Wenaas, Singletary, and our other returnees, and we have added an incredible amount of talent with Rutherford (a left-handed hitting opposite who brings a lot more power hitting than Phillips ever did), Ames (a terrific looking combination of middle blocker and opposite hitter), Lauenstein (a very good hitter for Nebraska who sat out last year), and Carlson (a setter who was the Big 12 Freshman of Year for Baylor in 2022). We're so deep that Kahahawai is still buried in the rotation. Singletary, Swindle, and Halter should all be a year better. Preseason #1 all the way. That doesn't guarantee even a final four appearance, but we look stronger going into this August than we did last year.

Not at all surprised to see unanimity from the opposing coaches about Texas being the team to beat.

Not surprised they are ranked ahead of us, and this is a very good roster, even if it is Calipari trying to out-tall everyone like he does nearly every year.

These projections show just how much people are asking when they state an opinion Terry only saves his job if Texas manages two of the three of finishing in the top four in the SEC, making the conference finals, or making the second weekend. ESPN has us at 22nd, looking up at 7 teams in the conference, and with Kentucky right on our heels at 23. CBS is kinder by projecting us 6th in the conference. Going to be a rough ride.

This is almost like an invitation. Texas State Highway 117 was the designation of two planned but canceled routes, the first from the Oklahoma boarder to Claude, and the second from Pleasanton to Karnes City. The original would have gone through Borger, the ultimate oil boom town of the 20s . . . Nah, I'm too busy with other things to start one of these.

Gordon played at 216 pounds last year. A 220 pound man needs 5 standard drinks in an hour to get over 0.08 . Add 20 mph over the speed limit. But hey, Gundy has done stuff like that 1,000 times.

Last NHC discussion before landfall 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080254 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb. The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders. 2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

18z runs of HMON, HWRF, and HAFS-A and -B are largely unchanged from the 12z runs. HWRF still indicating a later and more powerful landfall than the others. All put landfall around Matagorda between 1 am and 4 am. 18z GFS run has brought it into line with the rest on intensity. It had been the outlier for days by predicting far less wind speed.

4pm cdt NHC advisory is much the same. Approaching Matagorda with max winds 85 at 4 am with eye still an hour or two off shore.

12z HMON, HWRF, and both HAFS agree on Matagorda Bay as landfall center. HWRF has later landfall with category 2 winds.

Reporter on Surfside beach describing being in a house built up on 10 foot wood pilings when 90 mph winds hit. "It can get kind of gnarly."

10 am NHC advisory shows expected center of landfall between Palacios and Matagorda.

4 am CDT NHC advisory projected a more easterly track than before with the center of landfall on the east side of Matagorda Bay. Next advisory in half an hour.

10 pm cdt NHC advisory is in. Storm still moving at 13 mph. Port O'Connor is now projected ground zero in the very early hours of July 8. Category 1. Error at 36 hours is 50-60 miles and +/- one category. The greater warning embedded in the forecast says: In fact, the hurricane regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h predictions.

18z HMON, HWRF, HAFS-A models are nearly uniform in showing a strong category 1 hurricane landfall around 4 am between Port Aransas and Matagorda Bay. HAFS-B differs only in landfall being a little later.

NHC 4 pm CDT advisory has Beryl back on a Port Lavaca track.

While gulf waters are near the temperature they were in late August, 2017, forecasters still think rapid intensification is unlikely for the next 24 hours due to southerly shear and dry air on the southwest side of Beryl. From 10 am tomorrow until landfall will be the time for intensification, so the faster Beryl gets here, the better. Unfortunately Beryl has slowed its rate of travel since leaving the Yucatan. HMON and HWRF 12z runs have Beryl making landfall at Corpus between 4 and 7 am on July 8, so they (particularly HWRF) are getting it here quicker than they predicted 24 hours ago, but they aren't lowering the intensity from their last 3 runs. They're just bringing it to the coast a little farther south. Gulf is very warm. I won't be surprised if Beryl once again gets stronger than models predict, particularly if landfall occurs later on Monday.