bierce

10 CDT update from NHC. It boils down to a slight northly shift from last message. Landfall predicted on Matagorda Island late morning July 8. Strength bumped up a smidgin to borderline cat 1/cat 2 at landfall. Usual caveat of 80-100 mile error range and +/- 1 category in strength. 337 WTNT42 KNHC 060243 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb. Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S. The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction, which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point. Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one. Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the average intensity error is close to one category. Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast information. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of next week. 3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.9N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 25.0N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 26.2N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 29.2N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 31.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 33.9N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

18z run of ECMWF shows landfall near Freeport.

HMON and HWRF have moved landfall slightly north in the 18z run. HWRF has Beryl making landfall almost 6 hours later than HMON. HWRF projection is for 7 am CDT Jul 8. HMON is for 1 am CDT Jul 8

NHC 4pm CDT advisory. I bolded the coordinates predicted for landfall. That's in the middle of Corpus Christi Bay, btw. 732 WTNT42 KNHC 052045 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become less organized. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the inner core. The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory, with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight. Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. After that, it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly shear. Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit generous. However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening. The new intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than currently forecast. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the greatest impacts will be. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of next week. 3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. 4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.2N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1800Z 23.2N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 26.5N 96.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 27.8N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...AT COAST 96H 09/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Ok, I tried to get a grasp on the difference between HAFS-A and HAFS-B and found this explanation. It's like reading Wittgenstein. You're baffled at the start. You read a little more and start to understand. Then you read a little more and come to the realization you don't. HAFS-A - The operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) configuration “A” modeling system (Version 1.0) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. HAFS is configured with two storm-centric domains with nominal horizontal resolutions of 6 km and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The moving nest is ~12° x ~12° and follows the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). HAFS-A obtains its atmospheric initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational GFS and oceanic initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS). In contrast to HAFS-B, HAFS-A initializes the vortex based on the maximum wind error of the first guess at analysis time and uses a GFS-based physics suite with TC specific modifications in PBL and surface surface schemes. This physics suite includes the GFDL microphysics parameterization and a modified eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) planetary boundary layer parameterization. Modifications are made in the EDMF-TKE PBL scheme which makes the mixing length scale near the surface in PBL consistent with that used in the surface-layer module. Surface roughness lengths for momentum and scalar are specified as a function of wind speed to match observed drag coefficients in the surface parameterization scheme. Independent HAFS-A forecasts are created for up to five active tropical cyclones and invests worldwide. HAFS-A model forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h. Documentation: https://github.com/hafs-community/HAFS Alt. Web Site: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/ HAFS-B - The operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) configuration “B” modeling system (Version 1.0) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. HAFS is configured with two storm-centric domains with nominal horizontal resolutions of 6 km and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The moving nest is ~12° x ~12° and follows the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). HAFS-B obtains its atmospheric initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational GFS and oceanic initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS). In contrast to HAFS-A, HAFS-B initializes the vortex slightly differently (although still based on the initial maximum wind error) and uses a unique physics suite. This physics suite includes the Thompson microphysics parameterization and a modified eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) planetary boundary layer parameterization with modifications for hurricane environments based on advanced research. Independent HAFS-A forecasts are created for up to two active tropical cyclones and invests in NHC basins (NATL/EPAC). HAFS-B model forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h. Documentation: https://github.com/hafs-community/HAFS Alt. Web Site: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSB/

An overachiever to its end, eh?

What is particularly striking about the 12z models is that HMON was predicting 24 hours earlier for max winds of only 40mph upon landfall. Now it predicts Beryl spending 12 more hours in the gulf and making landfall with 85+ max winds. That is a huge change in one day.

Here are July 5 12z models for HMON, HWRF, and GFS. HAFS-A and HAFS-B differ so wildly from each other that I think they are still experimenting with parameters, so I didn't include them. HMON and HWRF are projections for 4 am July 8, GFS for 7 am July 8.

Yeah, this isn't good. Could be worse, but the warnings are embedded about the risk of Beryl getting stronger than predicted, and NCH is already predicting hurricane speeds at landfall, but NHC has a more southerly track than last HWRF and HMON models. Landfall between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay. The faster this thing moves across the gulf, the better. 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051451 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt. The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary later today. Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that, it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest. Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after 48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence. Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than forecast. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning areas today. Residents there should shelter in place until these life-threatening conditions subside. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast. Storm Surge, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today. 3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST 96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

HWRF is the outlier on intensity, but it has been very accurate in past seasons. NHC will update its advisory in a few minutes. I think a major factor will be how organized Beryl is when it comes off the Yucatan about 9 hours from now. Even if the winds never top 50 in the Rockport area, 6 inches of rain will make things pretty miserable.

Bad news this morning. Beryl is not weakening as much as predicted, and models are moving landfall up the Texas coast. Models are agreeing on a landfall between Rockport (like it needs another one) and Port Lavaca sometime on Monday. HWRF is again the model showing most intensity. Buckle up, coastal Texans.

10 pm CDT NHC discussion (again a few minutes early) The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt. Beryl is expected to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near Tulum early Friday morning. Most of the models show the center remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Around that time, Beryl is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward a trough over the south-central U.S. Although the models are in fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the Gulf. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, following the trend in the latest models. It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it reaches the coast. Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by the time it exits the Yucatan. Assuming the system is able to maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The NHC intensity forecast again lies near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming a hurricane again over the western Gulf. Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, so it is too soon to pinpoint where the largest impacts will be.

18z Jul 4 GFS model also has Beryl fizzling out over the Yucatan and never regaining much strength.

HWRF model finally ran to a point just south of the Texas/Mexico border. Image is projection for July 7, 7 pm. three hours after HMON had Beryl at a similar latitude. HWRF model is a bit weaker than it was from the model 6 hours ago, but still showing hurricane strength winds at this point, and it is still over water and intensifying.

HWRF model has frozen at 1 pm on July 7, so I can't show the 4 pm projection. Here's the 1 pm projection. Still much stronger than HMON, but no longer showing Beryl taking 12-18 more hours to get to the Brownsville area.

HMON run at 18z largely unchanged from 6 hours before. Instead of comparing it to HWRF at the same hour, I'll compare them as they pass Matamoros/Brownsville. HMON has it there at 4 pm on July 7. I'll put up the HWRF chart when it becomes available in about 10-15 minutes. Here's HMON projection for 4 pm on July 7.

Neither are Brownsville, Matamoros, or Houston, yet we discuss landfall in terms of those cities.

Today's 5 pm EDT discussion from NHC (so it came out a few minutes early) A large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl to move westward or west-northwestward during the next day or so, with the model guidance tightly clustered about a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in 12-18 h and emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at around 30 h. After that, Beryl should turn northwest toward a developing break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the central United States. This general motion should continue until the cyclone makes landfall on the western Gulf coast between 72-96 h. There is still some spread in the track guidance regarding a landfall location, with the range of possibilities from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast. Users are reminded that the average track forecast error at day 3 is about 100 miles and at day 4 is about 150 miles, and so it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is a little north of the previous forecast through 24 h and similar to the previous forecast after that. It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time.

Here are the images from HMON and HWRF for July 7 10 pm CDT. Quite a disagreement.

Latest runs of HMON and HWRF strongly disagree on storm strength. Latest run to which I have access for full model is 12Z or 7 am CDT. I am getting model updates through tropicaltidbits.com, which has them about 5 hours after the fact. If anyone knows of a site that shows the full model run in detail earlier, please let me know. HMON now projects Beryl to make landfall in South Texas with windspeeds only around 40 mph due to near dissipation while crossing the Yucatan and little to no intensification during the gulf crossing until just before hitting the coast. HWRF looks to be projecting a much stronger system retaining a discernible eye coming out of the Yucatan, slower movement, more regeneration in the gulf, and approach with at least category 1 winds.

Forecaster Beven at 11:00 a.m. Eastern had this gentle reminder: "While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles."

While the models are coming into more agreement, it's interesting to see how the different models change with respect to each other. 36 hours ago, HMON was projecting to greatly weaken and make landfall near Tampico and quickly dissipate, GFS projecting a near category 1 around Matamoros, and HWRF projecting a still building cat 1/2 in the gulf and heading to Victoria. Now HMON is projecting landfall 40-50 miles north of Brownsville at near category 1, while HWRF and GFS have come to near agreement about landfall near Texas/Mexico border. As it gets closer, they all revert to the mean, I suppose. Models are way more accurate <72 hours out than they are over 5 days. I still think the main thing now will be whether it slows down after crossing the Yucatan. Eye movement at 17 mph is a pretty fast moving hurricane.

Yes, but too late to force landfall much farther north than Rio Grande mouth. Nearly all models are in agreement now for gradual northerly turn after crossing Yucatan, landfall around Brownsville/Matamoros at category 1, and nnw motion toward San Antonio after landfall. Still 4 days away, so still time for it to change. Slower movement in the gulf could cause it to grow into a more powerful storm.

HWRF has completely changed its mind now. It looks to be predicting landfall near Matamoros, but with a very northerly track. 36 hours ago it was predicting landfall around Victoria.

Right. Recharge in the gulf is likely after further weakening in the western Caribbean and crossing the Yucatan, but the degree of recharge is uncertain, and the projected track is more southerly than it was early yesterday. The composite and NHC are anticipating west-northwesterly movement through the Yucatan with a slow turn to a northwesterly track in the gulf, but still landfall in northern Mexico at borderline category 1 strength. If Beryl turns more to the north or sooner to the north, then it could spend a lot more time in the gulf and blow up into a much stronger hurricane by the time it comes to shore.