bierce

Beryl hitting shear and weakening. Latest projections from GFS and HWRF show a westward shift, forcing Beryl to cross closer to the center of the Yucatan, further weakening it, and putting Beryl unlikely to make landfall north or much north of Brownsville. Both have it on a nw track upon landfall, but GFS in Tamaulipas heading through Nuevo Leon into Coahuila and HWRF on this side of the Rio Grande. Both will still put a lot of rain in South Texas, but only HWRF shows much chance for heavy rain this far north. Beryl is still kind of small for a Category 4 storm.

If either the HWRF or GFS models prove accurate, Houston will get at least some rain. GFS has Beryl nearing landfall just south of Brownsville but traveling north with the eye remaining just off the coast instead of coming inland. That's the sort of thing that will cause incredible rainfall totals even if wind strength is diminished somewhat.

HWRF is still the outlier showing Beryl on a more northerly track, staying in the gulf longer, recharging more, and threatening landfall north of Corpus. The rest show Beryl hitting farther south with less strength. HWRF has been an excellent model in recent years regarding intensity, but it has been less accurate than NHC tracking regarding direction.

Texas landfall as likely as not, and a majority of computer models say it will happen. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/hurricane-beryl?map=model The question is going to be how much Beryl can recharge in the gulf. Shear conditions are still favoring Beryl weakening on the way to the Yucatan and being unable to regain much strength in the gulf, but those can change. The intensity forecast also remains uncertain. There is general agreement in the guidance that Beryl should weaken due to westerly shear and possible land interaction as it approaches Jamaica. However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the hurricane. The new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and this portion of the forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. There is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance.

Looks like Central Texas will get some rain from this. Computer models keep shifting slightly north, though much uncertainty about degree of recharge in the gulf.

Two of four computer models on weather underground show Beryl's eye hitting around Brownsville, and one has it heading to landfall between Corpus and Victoria. It should lose steam before and during crossing the Yucatan, but it could regenerate in the Gulf. Three days ago, forecasters were predicting 115 mph max winds. It is now at 155. Let us hope sheer and landfall in the Yucatan causes it to dissipate. I pay a lot of attention to this stuff because I lived in Corpus for 27 years and my lady love is still in Portland. Portland, Texas, that is. As an amusing side note, let me tell you about a friend of a friend and Harvey. He had a little trailer in a mobile home park in the Rockport area, which was bull's-eyed by Harvey. He managed to get the last bunch of anchors, tied his trailer down, filled every container he could with water, and set them in the trailer. Then he stayed in the trailer and rode the hurricane out. My friend went there the next day and sent me a video panning 360 degrees around the trailer park. Total devastation. Trees uprooted. Mobile homes turned over. Her friend's trailer sat upright, the only thing standing in the trailer park. He still swore to never do that again.

Going to be a hellacious season with ocean temperatures the way they are and El Niño giving way to La Niña. The former tends to make a lot of Atlantic storms stay in the Atlantic. The latter invites most of them into the Caribbean and Gulf.

It boils down to this. Donors can put money into the pool and make it sport specific or they can make a general donation. An independent board oversees the pool and allots money from the general fund as it sees fit. That board undoubtedly listens when CDC speaks, but it is not required to follow his direction. Texas had a pretty decently sized pool for NIL, but it needed to fill 9 roster spots, and it doesn't have a pool as large as that of Arkansas, Kentucky, or probably 15 or so other schools that are all in on basketball. Terry has no control over the size of the NIL pool for basketball, but I don't think there is some kind of conspiracy among the board or the athletic department to limit the basketball pool because our coach is named Rodney Terry. I think it is just what it is. X dollars were specifically donated for men's basketball. The general fund had Y dollars do be apportioned among 30 or so athletic programs, many of which do not allow for enough scholarships for everyone. The basketball program was given Z dollars out of the general fund. While I don't doubt there may be big money donors who would shell out more and make the donation men's basketball specific if we hired a different coach, that isn't something the university can control. BMDs will do BMD things. I'm not fussed if we miss out on Kaluma for the myriad of reasons I posited in other threads but to which I will now add, he ain't a Timmy Allen. Just look at his career fga, assist, turnover numbers. Allen had 3.5 fga per assist and far more assists than turnovers, while Kaluma is around 6.8 fga/assist and more turnovers than assists. Allen was a point forward at Utah who came to Texas to be just another guy on a tournament team, and his time with the ball on offense dropped dramatically, and he took just 35 threes in his two years here. Kaluma left an Elite Eight team that was certain to return to the tournament because it was obvious he was going to be third option behind Scheierman and Trey Alexander on offense, and he takes about 40% of his shots from the arc, where he has never proven to be a plus shooter. I would be surprised if he is willing become just another cog, and while we need a quality back-up behind Kent, I don't think we're better off by giving minutes from Kent and Johnson to Kaluma. I'll keep to my line of thinking that we will find a cheaper alternative and still credible back-up four.

This doesn't sound like Terry not being interested as much as it sounds like Terry not being given the jack he needs. He apparently wasn't given the money to land Toppin either.

Replay of Texas vs. Texas State spring match starts at 8:30 tonight, not 9.

I wonder if Leonard Hamilton offered him when he hit 7 feet as a 13 year old.

You can even see old friends like slxpress on there. If it is the same poster, that is. Or if he is a "friend." I've missed his contributions to Texas basketball threads for a long time. Hard to think his reaction to Ro Russell's shenanigans is still preventing him from discussing Texas basketball more than a decade later.

For those interested in seeing some of the new players, LHN is replaying on Wednesday, June 19, at 9:00 p.m., a spring game between Texas and Texas State, You can see Ames in action, Singletary showing she can be a force as a middle blocker, and Skinner unleashing absolute bombs from the back row. You'll see Wenaas making some strong kills weakside, and what the advantage is in having a left-handed "opposite side" hitter like Rutherford. Ames looks like she will be a great player for us for years. You'll get another chance at the replay at 3:30 on Friday.

https://volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/79381/texas-recruiting-transfer-thread-2025?page=389 Elliott is amassing incredible classes. 2025 class has Spears, two players on the USA U21 team, and one other rated 5 stars by vballrecruiter. 2026 class has two players on the USA U19 team and the #3 libero in the class.

I loved what I saw from Ames and Singletary in the short spring season. With those two and Rutherford and Lauenstein being added to Skinner, Swindle, and Wenaas, we have an absolute stockpile of weapons at the net for 2024.

The burnt orange will be fine. The question is which and how many maximally clashing colors you will use to make the riotous plaid.

And here I thought that fan base rallied behind him because of his willingness to continue the Bama tradition of coaches wearing hideously ugly jackets to games.

Just three hits allowed in three games, all singles, and one of those was a bad hop grounder.

I think Terry has shown us how well-regarded he is by Texas high school and AAU coaches. He's brought guys who played HS ball in Texas back to Texas from Indiana State, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and out of state basketball factories in Missouri and Virginia, as well as landing in-state recruits Johnson and Codie. Six of eight incoming players were originally from Texas (three from the Dallas area, one from Houston area, and two from central Texas), though only one of them was playing in Texas this year. I like this recruiting focus.

He does warrant a medical hardship for the 2021-22 season. Even stronger core. But I think he's a strong candidate to go pro.

Add Presley, of course. I like how we have a large group of athletic players who can stick around and develop. Even assuming Tre Johnson leaves early, we're still looking at having Pope, Weaver, Presley, Pryor, Codie, and Vinson return. Powell has a couple of years left, too, so we could have about as much continuity in 2025-26 as one might hope for in the NIL era.

Nice form on his jumper and looks comfortable shooting it out to the arc, so he comes as a big man showing offensive range, but perimeter shooting obviously won't be his main area of production in his career. Footwork in the paint is less than ideal, but we're talking fast growing 18 year old still getting acclimated to his own bones. He's too thin to be of much impact right away as a paint defender, but I like this addition for some depth in the event of a disaster and for down the road. Get him a year of S&C and we could have an impact player here. We lose Shedrick, Onyema, and Kent next year, so a guy who can contribute down the road could be really valuable. If down the road is a thing anymore.

Except here is hoping that length can contribute in 2024-25. Vinson looks like a bit of a project, albeit one that I very much want to watch develop. He has nice shooting form on his jumper and can hit jumpers out to the arc, even if that shouldn't be his biggest contribution on offense down the road. On the other hand, he is rail thin, doesn't seem to be very nimble with his feet, and he doesn't get off the ground. He doesn't need to do much of the last because he is so long, but I seriously doubt he can give us many valuable minutes as a freshman. But it is great to have depth. I like the addition.

Vinson visited Kentucky recently and had offers from Miss Ole and South Carolina.

Not exactly a bad fit, though. He doesn't have the ideal body to control the paint on defense, but his offensive repertoire is pretty nice. His assist rate is poor, but he's not overly demanding of the ball on offense, has good offensive range, and while he isn't exceptional from the arc, he's a better than average shooter from there. He could be better at the line, but even so, he's better from there than most of the 4/5s we have been looking at this spring. I wanted Brazile two years ago. If the knee problems haven't slowed him down too much, then he'd be a nice addition now. I'm certain that if Texas is looking at Brazile, then Mark has dispelled the silly rumors about, oh, let's call it locker room relations, to the staff's satisfaction.