CHorn427

Really the only unlikely domino that needs to fall is Army beating ND. BYU could easily lose @ ASU and CU could even easily lose vs Kansas. IF Army beats ND, they’ll have a better quality win compared to the Big12 champion regardless of what else happens.

1. BYU loses one of their final games (say @ ASU) 2. #2 Big12 team upsets BYU in the championship game (maybe Colorado?) 3. Army wins out (including win over ND) 4. Boise State wins out In this scenario, it’s conceivable that Army and BSU could rank higher in the CFP than the Big12 champs and the Big12 would lose their autobid. However, it be highly controversial and against media interests to exclude Colorado if they win out and win the Big12 championship. However, if the Big12 champ is someone other than Colorado (having won out) or one loss BYU, I could see it. I’m rooting for it!

I do think this was the best Quinn’s looked since Michigan, personally. He threw some nice over the shoulder balls that I think have been missing. And he looked like he was more willing to step into throws.

If we come to a 3 way tie between 11-1 UGA, 11-1 Texas and 10-2 TAMU, the dumb SEC three way tiebreaker rules will boil down to cumulative conference win percentage of the tied teams’ conference opponents. Even if we have the head to head over TAMU. Our conference opponents are significantly weaker in wins than UGA and TAMU, so I highly doubt we stand a chance if it comes to this tiebreaker. Between UGA and TAMU, it will essentially come down to unique opponents between the two: Tennessee+Bama+Ole Miss+Kentucky for UGA vs LSU+Mizzou+Arkansas+SC for TAMU. Likely 18 wins for UGA’s slate: 6-2 Tennessee, 6-2 Bama, 5-3 Ole Miss, 1-7 Kentucky Likely 18 wins for TAMU’s slate: 6-2 LSU, 6-2 Mizzou, 3-5 Arkansas, 3-5 SC UGA and TAMU will tie for first place and beat out Texas at this stage and UGA and TAMU will advance to the SEC championship game. We need UGA to win this tiebreaker outright if it comes to this situation.

Our ranking right now has us over TAMU, meaning AP voters think we’re better. Do you still think they’ll think we’re better if we lose the head to head? For the integrity of the game, I hope not. If Texas loses to TAMU and Bama wins out, Bama will be the more impressive 2 loss team. The margin of the Tennessee/UGA game will be important. If Tennessee loses less ugly to UGA, they will have the Bama win and arguably still a better resume than Texas (with a TAMU loss). Tennessee also has the opportunity to cap the season with a win over Vandy. So with 11-1 UGA, 11-1 TAMU, 10-2 Texas/Bama/Tenn, the top 4 out of the SEC will arguably be the 4 other than Texas. Alabama would get in on the merit of their resume + media love/respect based on Bama. Tennessee then holds a trump card of “if Bama is in, we should be in”. Similar to what we had last season.

If the facemask is hit and not grabbed it is not a facemask penalty. Have you watched football before?

Should be a fun weekend to root for chaos, especially since Texas is on the couch

No one, yet. But to finish with no more than two losses they’ll need to beat either PSU or Indiana, and either win would be better than any Texas has if we don’t beat TAMU. Their one point loss to Oregon in Eugene is also as “good” of a loss as anyone right now, as well

No. Facemask penalty is grabbing the facemask. I'm talking about when a defender's hand comes down (open hand) and contacts a QB's facemask after trying to swat the ball (without grabbing the facemask). It is the weakest penalty in football.

Making contact to the QB’s facemask with your hand while trying to tip a pass needs to not be a penalty. That is just so ticky tac and soft. Sure, if it’s late as hell, then flag it like any contact. But if it’s bang-bang, let it go. There is a line to cross in terms player protection and maintaining football as a contact sport. No one is gonna get a concussion from an open hand to the facemask. 🤦‍♂️

Big12 will have two teams maximum (BYU and winner of KSU-ISU)

I definitely get this advantage. However, straight up with comparing resumes, Texas will lose out to nearly every other potential 10-2 resume from the B1G or SEC. Not even accounting for the abundance of 1-loss P4 teams. Bobby says Texas should be in over Bama. If Bama finishes with 2 losses, their Top 2 wins over UGA and LSU will look a lot stronger than our best 2 wins (should we lose to TAMU). There’s a lot of money in getting Bama into the CFP, as well (2023 selection committee says hi). Add to that the negative momentum from literally losing the last game of the season for Texas. I’m calling it tenuous. Now, 10-2 with that second loss not being to TAMU completely changes the complexion. If we lose a close one to one of our next 3 and get the win over TAMU, I like our chances considerably more. Like best 10-2 team on the board. If we lose, I think we will be the worst resume 10-2 team on the board.

Not really about dropping in the rankings. The issue is resume. If we go 3-1 in the next 4 games with a loss to TAMU, we don’t really have a resume. Michigan and OU are our two “big wins” right now. Michigan has 3 losses and still has to play Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. Very high chance of finishing 6-6. OU has a high chance of finishing 5-7. TAMU now seems like our only opportunity to beat a P4 team that will finish with 8 or more wins for the season. If we lose that game, we will have a very lackluster resume with no signature wins over quality opponents

Our schedule is obviously relatively light this year (except UGA and TAMU). Set us up nicely to win, but potentially sets us up poorly if we finish with 2 losses (particularly if the second loss is TAMU). If we lose to TAMU, we’ll have beaten no team that has a shot at a final Top25 finish. If we lose to Florida, Ark or UK, that will be one of the worst losses of any 2 loss team in the country (if not THE worst).

IF Texas finishes with one SEC loss, LSU is the team to watch that Texas does not control its destiny against. We need LSU to lose to TAMU, Florida, Vanderbilt or OU. TAMU winning that game this week seems like the best hope there. - A one loss winner of the UGA-Tennessee game has the tiebreaker on Texas. - A one loss Texas obviously has the tiebreaker on the loser of the UGA-Tennessee game. - Texas plays TAMU and Vanderbilt, so obviously controls its own destiny there. -Texas would have tiebreaker over Mizzou (TAMU win compared to Mizzou loss) - the Kicker: if LSU only loses to Alabama, the tiebreaker with one loss Texas would come down to cumulative conference winning percentage of Texas’ conference opponents vs that of LSU. This essentially reduces to the cumulative conference winning percentage of UGA + Mississippi State + Kentucky (for Texas) vs Bama + Ole Miss + South Carolina (for LSU). LSU would almost certainly win that tiebreaker.

I said this is the first time #1 Texas was hosting a Top 5 matchup at night. Texas was #2 in 2006. That was also a preseason ranking that Texas had not earned and clearly wasn’t actually a top 5 team that year Still- what I said holds up. #1 Texas had not hosted a Top 5 game since 1970, and that game was in the afternoon.

Arkansas was #9 for that game (so Top10 matchup, not Top5), not sure about the time of the game.

Neither of those QBs has close to the level of experience as Dillon Gabriel.

Like I said, who knows about recruiting? I don’t know what type of recruiting violations Saban may or may not have had. Or if they were more egregious than other teams. You don’t know either, unless you can provide evidence of it. What I do know is Saban never cheesed on the field like this. I addressed Belichik. He definitely broke and bent rules on the field. I think he is overrated as a coach. He did nothing special before or after Brady. His legacy is he won with Brady. Was nothing without him. I hesitate to call him a great because his success was solely due to Brady. Sark doesn’t and shouldn’t have to resort to cheesy rule bending strategies to win games. Sark is all about winning the right way and setting up a good program with great culture. Lanning’s not about that. Lanning is about cheesy strategies and instant gratification

That’s a lie. Saban didn’t rely on cheesy rule bending on the field to win games. His teams won or lost straight up. Recruiting, who knows. But on the field for sure, Saban did not rely on cheesy rule bending. belichik did, but honestly he was pretty much nothing without Brady and just luckily got blessed with the best QB to ever play the game

Would you have a problem with a team exploiting it vs Texas? I definitely would. Now what’s stopping a team from putting 12 players on the field every play in that situation and just letting the offense get 5 yds every 10 seconds or more when time is extremely precious?

This was definitely a grey area, and I believe less than 100% integrity. Now, what’s to stop this scenario: -Punt ball to trailing team, pin them deep with less than a minute to go -Play every down on defense after that with 12 or more defenders -Prevent big plays, allow the opposing team to gain 5 yds every 10 seconds or more. Legitimately curious, is there anything preventing this from being a legitimate strategy to consider? In any competitive situation, this is what I would refer to as “cheesing”

This was a smart but low integrity call/play. I’d rather my coach be both smart and have integrity, which I think we can all agree Sark is a great model of both. I prefer sportsmanship (beating a team straight up) rather than gamesmanship (beating a team by bending rules or finding rules to exploit). As evidenced by one of Lanning’s players spitting on the facemask of an Ohio State player, we clearly have better culture than Oregon. I believe in football karma, and believe/hope this comes back to bite Oregon. I will say though, I am happy Ohio State was the victim of this. Ohio State and Oregon are my #3 and #4 most disliked teams behind OU and TAMU.

Looked over UGA’s previous schedules going back to before the AP poll era. I don’t think they’ve ever (EVER) played an away game at AP #1. On the Texas side, this is the first time Texas has hosted a Top 5 matchup as #1 since 1970 (vs #4 Arkansas). First time ever at night (1970 Arkansas game was an afternoon kick according to Wikipedia). So we can say this is the first time #1 Texas has ever hosted a Top 5 matchup at night in prime time. People have pointed and will point to the 2006 game against Ohio State (1v2) as a high profile game, but in my opinion that game doesn’t stack up to this game vs UGA or the 1970 Arkansas game. 2006 Texas was not a true Top 5 team; preseason ranking due to 2005 team’s accomplishments. This current game and the 1970 Arkansas game were mid to late season matchups featuring teams that have/had earned their rankings (to a degree). Please feel free to fact check and let me know if I overlooked something!

I think we should respect OU’s defense. They were pretty good last year and returned almost all of their key guys. If they hold Tennessee to under 30, OU has a Top25 defense for sure (maybe higher). I think Tennessee is a Top25 offense easily, probably Top10 easily.