CHorn427

On the surface, it’s easy to argue that Bama didn’t need a program builder. Their program was built, just needed a competent winner. Which DeBoer had proved himself to be in his prior stops. But to be a Devil’s advocate along the same lines as your argument, I recently watched a clip of Saban making his Bama team run wind sprints and he said something that is very pertinent and supportive of your position. He said: “only two things can happen- either we’re gonna get better or we’re gonna get worse. We’re not gonna remain the same” And maybe that was the flaw in the case of the Saban to DeBoer transition, and all transitions of a great to his successor. It seems like the general thought/goal is to “maintain” the greatness. Which, if you believe Saban’s line, is impossible. It’s either better or worse.

UW was 4-8 the year before he got there. What he did with UW was impressive. The UW job was very different than the Bama job. The Bama job is very different than any job DeBoer’s had. The only two coaches that have ever had sustained success at Bama were two of the most hardass coaches of all time. I just can’t see a HC that is California cool having real success coaching Bama. He’d be better off at a premiere Big10 program. Just doesn’t fit imo

A very hard fought 10-2 to make the CFP this year is not completely out of the question and would be very impressive. But I’d give it a 1-5% chance given their schedule.

Germie Bernard is pretty good. I think he is of the caliber that he would have been at least a top 4 receiver on that UW team.

The only teams Bama had any business losing to last season were UGA, LSU and Tennessee (not even really Tennessee given their struggles). Realistic expectations for DeBoer would have been lose 2 of those 3 and make the CFP, or even all 3 and miss the CFP (they probably would have made the CFP if those were the 3 they lost). But to lose to Vandy and OU just shows an immense change in culture for the worse. 4 losses to unranked teams, matching the total number Saban had his whole time there. And again, Bama has never been less penalized than their opponent under DeBoer yet. That is wild. It goes beyond the record. If DeBoer pulls it out and goes 8-4 or better, props to him because that will be a hard earned 8-4. But I really do think he could go 6-6 or worse this year.

Also, DeBoer left a team that made the natty to take over for a guy that just made the semis and won 6 titles for the program. I think not losing to OU or Vanderbilt was an ok expectation to have of him.

Sark has improved in every season and took over from a rotten culture situation. DeBoer could fall HARD this season, and took over one of the best and most talented programs/cultures of all time. Monumental difference there.

I disagree with your win expectations for Bama this season, but agree with many of your points. People assumed they were gonna get great, improved QB play and heavily de-emphasized how much of a cheat code Jalen Milroe’s running ability was. They play a very tough schedule this season. UGA in Athens, LSU and @ SC were gonna be tough no matter what. So 9-3 would have been an ok season in my book. But now, they are looking like they could lose 6 or 7 games this season with the schedule they have. In addition to UGA, LSU and SC (which they are likely betting underdogs now), they could lose vs Tennessee, OU or Auburn playing the way they did. Vandy and Mizzou aren’t even gimmes playing the way they did.

It’s not just the defense. It’s discipline. Kalen DeBoer is used to coaching Midwest and west coast players. IMO, Southeastern players are more talented, but play with more attitude and “swag”. I think Kalen DeBoer got away with lackadaisical discipline coaching players that naturally had more even keel attitudes. Now he’s at Bama (lot of alpha types). They have just been unyoked from one of the biggest disciplinarian coaches in history to be coached by a much easier going coach, and I think the players are responding by being much more loose and undisciplined than they were under Saban. Under DeBoer, Bama has never had fewer penalties than an opponent to date. Completely wild stat that illustrates the lack of discipline.

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/aj-mccarron-sounds-alarm-alabama-nil-reality-after-florida-state-loss Bama is the #2 team in talent composite with 14 former 5* and 50 former 4* on roster. FSU is 19th with 1 former 5* and 36 former 4* on roster. It ain't NIL or recruiting. He's just sad that it would cost $20 million just to have the RB depth Bama used to have. That's a Bama education at work, folks.

Arch’s worst plays were very bad (Uncle Rico esque). Smith’s worst plays were just bad. Smith is a true sophomore and Littleton is (maybe) the best freshman DB in the country. Not that crazy. Littleton very clearly made a great play. The pass was also put in a spot that made it difficult to catch.

That’s a big if about them coming into our game undefeated. They have the hardest schedule in the country until then. It’s not certain that they will come out of next weekend undefeated, much less be undefeated in October. And if they are undefeated when we play them, they will probably have used up a lot of energy and possibly depth in hard fought games and be due for a loss.

I think Florida would have been better off this year if they didn’t get all those upsets towards the end of the year. That just gave those teams more reason to want to beat them 😂

I think you’re gonna have a pretty hard time convincing anyone that Smith’s drops were as ugly or detrimental as Arch’s off passes in the early part of the game. If Smith would have dropped a long bomb for sure TD, a la Johntay Cook vs MState, that would have made waves. The drops he did have I’m sure annoyed Ohio State fans and I’m sure they think they would have blown us out if he would have just caught those, but they were fairly ho hum. Arch looked like a real amateur out there on his worst plays. There’s a difference

This would be a pretty good time for them to try to make a run at Dabo, with Klubnik done after this season. But Bama probably doesn’t want a guy that has had defensive struggles in the very recent past.

It’s not worse than Arch’s Uncle Rico throws, skipping balls off the turf. We did a good job defending Smith. Many of Arch’s misses were pretty unforced.

We had two drives with red zone snaps. One drive saw one RB run on 6 red zone plays (gain of 2 yards with 3 yards to gain). The other drive saw one RB run on 5 red zone plays (gain of 3 yards with 6 yards to gain). Those are successful runs. Also, every time we ran a RB on 3rd and short (non goal line), we gained a first down. There’s been a lot of talk about Ohio State keeping things in front of them, but there is no way Ohio State wasn’t trying to stop the run on 3rd and short or was content to allow successful runs inside of the redzone. If that was part of the gameplan, that’s problematic. We had a lot of failed conversions on 3rd and short due to inaccurate passes, and a lot of drives stall from getting into 3rd and long because of inaccurate passes (thus not having the opportunity to run on 3rd and short). The lack of attempts for our RBs in the RZ and opting to pass on 3rd and short rather than run it until they prove they can stop it on 3rd and short is what I would call abandonment. But other than one failed, poorly conceived, half assed 4th down conversion attempt on the first drive, we pretty much ran the ball at will with our RBs.

How do you think he will play Penn State? Because I don't think a similar gameplan will work against them. Imo, Ohio State allowing 166 rushing yards to Texas "playing honest" with a light box doesn't bode well for them vs Penn State. I think we could have gone for 200+ - we abandoned the run at times and had drives stall and get off schedule to Arch's accuracy issues. You can say Ohio State was just allowing Texas to run on light boxes, playing bend don't break but Texas was doing the same thing if not more so (giving ample respect to Ohio State's air attack) and still held Ohio State's ground game in check. The preseason expectation was that Penn State will probably have the best running game in the country, which means better than Texas'. Also have a running QB (that has a lot more experience than Arch). If their WR corps is improved from last season in the way people are predicting, Ohio State may not be able to successfully rely on loading the box and allowing Allar to attempt to beat them through the air (which is what they have done every time facing Allar-led PSU so far). Should be interesting. Y'all are a good team, but I think the apparent lack of run game and run defense compared to last year will making repeating difficult. Or maybe our run game and run D is just that good? I would definitely love for that to be the case, but I'm skeptical of that as well.

We had two drives the whole game in which we had snaps in the redzone. Let me recap them: 3rd quarter: Driving in from the 28 yard line, 3rd&2. 8 yard run from Wisner sets us up in the redzone. After that highly successful run, we had 6 plays in the redzone. Only one of them was a run by a runningback- a 2 yard run by Baxter from the 3 yard line on 3rd down (that's a successful RZ run). Instead of dying on the hill of your RB running it in, or calling a imaginative play/bootleg, we choose to try to do QB sneak. Here, I'd say our true running game (even discounting some successful QB runs) was successful, we just didn't give our RBs a true chance to finish the job. 4th quarter: Driving in from the 35 yard line, 3rd&2. 5 yard run from Wisner sets us up in the high redzone. Again, after that highly successful run, we had 5 plays in the redzone with only one run from a RB (Successful 3 yds on 2nd and 6). This was followed by two incompletions (no bootlegs, either). We essentially abandoned RB run game in the redzone (mistake #1) and also refused to be imaginative (mistake #2). We need to give our RBs room to actually fail in the RZ before we say that they can't run in the RZ. True/crazy stat: every time we ran the ball in 3rd and short (non goal line) with RBs, we converted for 1st downs. The problems were #1- we had way too few 3rd and shorts, and #2- we had way too many instances of poor passing on 3rd and short.

I think Florida’s offense will be good, but the verdict is out on the defense. We will learn a lot about them in the next 3 weeks. The good news is Florida won’t be able to hide anything from us, whereas we should be able to save wrinkles. We essentially have a month to prepare for Florida. There will for sure be no excuse for us to not have a good gameplan for Florida. Not knowing Patricia at the CFb level was a caveat that neutralized game prep

Maybe one of the changes we can make in our Goal line offense is to start calling it the Red Zone like God intended

Our RBs and TEs are good. It’s specifically our WR corps that is lacking.

I disagree. This was Joe Burrow’s first start against Miami at LSU, in Baton Rouge, with JJ and JaMar Chase to throw to. We don’t have a JJ and JaMar to throw to, and Miami finished 7-6 that year. Point is, development takes time. Even for a guy who would go on to have the best and most accurate season ever

What I think the actual rankings will be: OSU PSU UGA LSU Miami Notre Dame Texas Oregon (might be ahead of Texas) South Carolina Clemson

I’m putting a lot of stock in Miami- Cristobal is an OL guy and their OL looks good, good WRs that can catch the ball, good defense, Beck looks back to 2023 form now that his receivers don’t have alligator arms. As long as they never have to kneel the ball this year they should be good.