HookedOnTF

Is the bigger worry about LB and S cleanup vs runs (esp QB) and covering pass catching backs, than pass D?

Ron McKelvey 'bout to show up in Baton Rouge and demand to be rostered

The Standard is the Standard and I'm as excited for the season as anyone, but, the math on "national title or bust" is just a reminder to enjoy the season and players regardless of reaching the mountaintop. Bill Connely's SP+ model has a preseason bias but it's a useful barometer with a million simulations to paint the picture. Step 1: You have to get in. SP+ gives Texas a 27.5% shot at making the CFP field. Read that the other way: roughly a 72% chance we're watching the bracket from home. And the bar to entry is lower than people think — in ESPN's sim run, a 9-3 Alabama makes the field. The goal isn't 12-0. The goal is 9-3 with the right losses, and even that's a bet we're losing three times out of four. Step 2: You have to win three or four straight against the best teams Bill points out that best case, if a dominant CFP team is a 70% favorite in every playoff game, (Reality: 50/50 - 60/40 but run with it), chances to - Win 3 in a row: 0.70³ = 34% - Win 4 in a row: 0.70⁴ = 24% Multiply against a 27.5% chance of making it and you're at 6-9%. That's the *optimistic* version. What SP+ is actually saying about Texas: Title odds are 3.6%, ninth nationally. Divide that by our 27.5% chance of making the field and you get about a 13% chance of winning it all conditional on being in. For that to be true, our per-game playoff spread is a field goal favorite on a neutral field, four times in a row. As an aside, Vegas gives Texas a pretty premium to win a title: | Team | SP+ | Vegas | Kalshi | | Ohio State | 14.2% | ~11.4% | ~10.7% | | Notre Dame | 10.4% | ~9.9% | ~10.7% | | Oregon | 11.1% | ~8.7% | ~9.0% | | Georgia | 7.4% | ~8.7% | ~8.1% | | Texas| 3.6% | ~8.2% | ~9.8% | | Indiana | 7.1% | ~7.4% | ~7.3% | | Miami | 4.4% | ~5.7% | ~6.4% | | Texas Tech | 4.6% | ~3.5% | ~3.0% | | LSU | 4.1% | ~3.2% | ~4.7% | | Texas A&M | 2.9% | ~2.9% | ~3.0% | Look at that table before you decide Bill's sim hates us. Seven of the ten agree within a point or two. SP+ is actually higher than the market on Ohio State, Oregon and Texas Tech.. The market pays Texas 2.5x what the sim does, the widest gap on the board. The confidence in this fanbase is showing up as a line — and then we turn around and cite the line as proof the confidence is justified. That's a circle, not an argument. But! The most damning number in that table isn't ours, it's Ohio State's. SP+'s best team in the country has a 14.2% chance to win it all. And we will know how we measure up in 3 weeks. Back to step 1, making the CFP in a 9 game SEC schedule SP+ Sim Conference title odds: Georgia 21.0%, Texas 12.5%, LSU 12.0%, Texas A&M 9.5%. Those four combine for 55%, meaning 45% of the time somebody else wins it. Winning the league and the seeding that comes with it is the most valuable thing we can do, and we're the second choice at one-in-eight. Summary: what an honest good season looks like even if it is disapointing: Make the field (that alone puts us in the top ~27% of our own outcome distribution) and win a playoff game. Unsatisfying given '23 and '24 for sure, but calling that a failure means calling ~97% of possible 2026 seasons a failure. So, it's All Gas on enthusiasm but tap the breaks on championship or bust. Hook 'Em!

Hopefully the days of backup QBs making Heisman campaigns off of us are finally in the past with Boom on board.

What flu strain only hits defense?

Obviously Kiff is going to promise to retire his jersey

So Mt Rushmore has been decided (for the post 92 era)! Very cool. Very happy to see DJ in there. QBs get all the love, WR/DBU the highlights, but deep down I think Texas DNA is built on RB & LB. Out of curiosity where did Ehlinger, Major, Priest, J Tucker, and Michael Dickson finish? Did Gardere or Stony Clark land in top 50? Just thinking of guys who had a signature play, bowl game, or rivalry game heroes etched in our minds not necessarily best career.

What did the member poll look like? Same top 10?

I think it's really cool of him to share these insider insights with LSU fans for free, and also in the spirit of the coaching fraternity, to be showing his support for lane with a 10-2 prediction.

For the record I've got Rod B at #11!

I'll hurry, I'm trying to pick great players beyond the obvious ones. The voting will be interesting to support the Longhorn Mt Rushmore though! Hoping you'll do an honorable mention section and list everyone who got named, beyond the Top 10.

"Senior Vice President of Championships" Heckuva title

In an alternate universe, QE could have gone pro a year earlier and Arch would have needed to be ready to go (still getting the spotlight and Heisman hype). That's not a dig on Arch early last season, just saying an extra year only helped him, but the OL roster mgmt plan clearly wasn't successful in setting him up as a new starter.

I'd like confidence rather than hope for Arch Cam and Wingo in this area. Maybe RBs and 1st down success rate create a virtuous cycle that puts less pressure on these guys to convert. Otherwise, I guess we do like MLB and stop hitting singles, just swing for the fences.

In California the UC schools tend to add the campus (though Berkley is more common than UC Berkley or Cal) so UT Austin doesnt sound out of place. In the SE I've run into UT meaning Tennessee, but otherwise Texas probably comes to mind first and in my experience people just use the name by default... Michigan, Northwestern, Florida, Georgia, Washington, Arkansas, not the abbreviation, except LSU, USC, and sometimes ASU. And people can guess who A&M is and definitely know its not The University!

Tea leaves: 2 Texas games, 2 LSU games, 1 Gator game, no visit to U who sent him gloves for his birthday. Winner take all in the final game? 9/5 Clemson @ LSU 9/12 tOSU @ Texas 9/26 Ole Miss @ UF Still a race? 11/15 Texas @ LSU

Who's going to explain this to Royal?

Need to know which 2 coaches voted us #1!

Fair - and hopefully whooping up on the nupac. There can only be one State U to rule them all.

No bobcats?!

Well if he doesn't, and rides the bench to start the season, at least we have a secret weapon for the LSU game.

Heather didn't explain the easy part of the methodology to get to 31. "According to ESPN Research, there are 28 teams with at least a 10% chance to reach the College Football Playoff this season. " She could have just said that is the preseason FPI prediction. https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi But the ranking order isn't explained, it has some "cfp committee secret sauce" factored in. I found this interesting though - coaches hedging on being outside top 10 (with 3 losses?!) ..."how many teams can legitimately compete for the national title?" "I think there's at least 10," Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. "But the trick is, can you get those 10 teams into the 12-team field? That's the trick because there are some automatic qualifiers." "Probably year in and year out, I guess 15, somewhere around there," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. "I think when you look at last year, some of the guys who were right on the fence of getting in probably could have made a deep run. So my guess would be right around there, but it probably depends on the year." "Is it 14 or so, give or take?" Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. "You may think I'm crazy, but I think 15 to 20," South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said. "Maybe 10, 15," Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. "But are they healthy? There were some teams last year you might argue didn't have great seasons, but maybe they could have if other things would have happened."

Naive question. Has to be 90% NIL not rev share, right, and if so - don't flame me people - to get through the clearinghouse, can that be one $4+M sponsorship deal or is it cobbling together a bunch of smaller deals? Nothing against Dillon, but for a non lottery pick I had no idea $5M would be market.

What forced scheduling concept is on the table? Yuck.

Nobody Sleeping on Simmons (tm)