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If you missed LW-C Friday

Fantastic.

For a game in late November, I like his focus!!!

I’ll just leave this here for the Agros to decipher 78-37-5 ikykwk

The Standard is the Standard and I'm as excited for the season as anyone, but, the math on "national title or bust" is just a reminder to enjoy the season and players regardless of reaching the mountaintop. Bill Connely's SP+ model has a preseason bias but it's a useful barometer with a million simulations to paint the picture. Step 1: You have to get in. SP+ gives Texas a 27.5% shot at making the CFP field. Read that the other way: roughly a 72% chance we're watching the bracket from home. And the bar to entry is lower than people think — in ESPN's sim run, a 9-3 Alabama makes the field. The goal isn't 12-0. The goal is 9-3 with the right losses, and even that's a bet we're losing three times out of four. Step 2: You have to win three or four straight against the best teams Bill points out that best case, if a dominant CFP team is a 70% favorite in every playoff game, (Reality: 50/50 - 60/40 but run with it), chances to - Win 3 in a row: 0.70³ = 34% - Win 4 in a row: 0.70⁴ = 24% Multiply against a 27.5% chance of making it and you're at 6-9%. That's the *optimistic* version. What SP+ is actually saying about Texas: Title odds are 3.6%, ninth nationally. Divide that by our 27.5% chance of making the field and you get about a 13% chance of winning it all conditional on being in. For that to be true, our per-game playoff spread is a field goal favorite on a neutral field, four times in a row. As an aside, Vegas gives Texas a pretty premium to win a title: | Team | SP+ | Vegas | Kalshi | | Ohio State | 14.2% | ~11.4% | ~10.7% | | Notre Dame | 10.4% | ~9.9% | ~10.7% | | Oregon | 11.1% | ~8.7% | ~9.0% | | Georgia | 7.4% | ~8.7% | ~8.1% | | Texas| 3.6% | ~8.2% | ~9.8% | | Indiana | 7.1% | ~7.4% | ~7.3% | | Miami | 4.4% | ~5.7% | ~6.4% | | Texas Tech | 4.6% | ~3.5% | ~3.0% | | LSU | 4.1% | ~3.2% | ~4.7% | | Texas A&M | 2.9% | ~2.9% | ~3.0% | Look at that table before you decide Bill's sim hates us. Seven of the ten agree within a point or two. SP+ is actually higher than the market on Ohio State, Oregon and Texas Tech.. The market pays Texas 2.5x what the sim does, the widest gap on the board. The confidence in this fanbase is showing up as a line — and then we turn around and cite the line as proof the confidence is justified. That's a circle, not an argument. But! The most damning number in that table isn't ours, it's Ohio State's. SP+'s best team in the country has a 14.2% chance to win it all. And we will know how we measure up in 3 weeks. Back to step 1, making the CFP in a 9 game SEC schedule SP+ Sim Conference title odds: Georgia 21.0%, Texas 12.5%, LSU 12.0%, Texas A&M 9.5%. Those four combine for 55%, meaning 45% of the time somebody else wins it. Winning the league and the seeding that comes with it is the most valuable thing we can do, and we're the second choice at one-in-eight. Summary: what an honest good season looks like even if it is disapointing: Make the field (that alone puts us in the top ~27% of our own outcome distribution) and win a playoff game. Unsatisfying given '23 and '24 for sure, but calling that a failure means calling ~97% of possible 2026 seasons a failure. So, it's All Gas on enthusiasm but tap the breaks on championship or bust. Hook 'Em!

Fun question. How many would start for any school in America is a fun exercise: Off: Cam Coleman, Trevor Goosby Def: Colin Simmons, Rasheem Biles, Jelani McDonald Really close to putting Graceson Littleton in the mix as a nickel. I love his game.

What do y'all think? On offense: Trevor Goosby, Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Melvin Siani, and Brandon Baker. On defense: Colin Simmons, Jelani McDonald, Rasheem Biles, and Hero Kanu I believe having at least 2-3 players on your offensive and defensive teams that could start on any college football team in America says you have a stacked roster! Just having fun. I'd love to hear what the MODS think! I know......no Arch! @CJ Vogel @Bobby Burton @Gerry Hamilton @Rod Babers @Hank South @Jeff Howe

Same!

Interceptions

Maybe he was elected as Trey Zuhn's replacement to make idiotic hate quotes 3 months in advance. If our QB was making comments about a game 11 weeks away, I'd be embarrassed!

I like it! Fire me up for the rivalry, think it's great for that.

Poor little fella… Prob thinks yell leaders are cool too…

I’m shaking in my boots that Marcel is going to actually try harder this year!

Yeah, he’s got another two meatball subs to the Texas Defense. I wonder if he feels confident now that Taafe is gone. He was Marcel’s favorite target the last two years!!

My FAVORITE aggie for sure! I hope he stays another year!!! In all seriousness, you have to wonder about his season long health... lightweight QB with an unproven O-Line. Imagine if Arch weighed 185 pounds, he wouldn't have survived the Florida game last year. I know way too many aggies, and they are all living in Pipe Dream City!

Jayden Thompson vs. Reedy http://www.hudl.com/v/2UCTcQ

Mac Horton vs. Reedy: http://www.hudl.com/v/2UCNZW

So it's a brand new season and instead of the goal being we want to win the SEC, get to the CFP, and compete for the championship, he's more worried about hating and beating Texas. Par for the brand.

Aggies are a delusional bunch.

Updates on a Pair of 2028 Lovejoy (TX) Offensive Tackles *** Made the trip to Lucas, Texas to check out a pair of 2028 offensive tackles who each hold Texas offers on Friday to catch them in action for the first game of their junior seasons. A couple of updates. *** 2028 OL Mac Horton The 6-foot-6-inch, 290-pound prospect spent the entire evening at right tackle, and entered a clean sheet in pass protection during the opener. Horton, a former lacrosse player, hung up his stick and mask after his freshman season to focus on football after seeing college interest come flooding in. Currently, Horton holds 13 offers, including one from the Longhorns which was extended on April 28th. "Definitely just earning that starting spot," Horton said in regard to what was top of mind for him entering 2026. "The seniors graduated last year were really good and I was injured freshman year. So it was a big setback, but I worked my butt off the last three years to get to this and I really tried to work on pad level and striking." Horton added he focused on leadership in the offseason as well, something that definitely showed up in the 56–17 victory over Frisco Reedy. Horton's dad played football at Presbyterian College in South Carolina, his mother was a volleyball star and his grandfather played at Georgia. So athleticism runs in the family. With the connection to Georgia, Horton said he grew up watching the Bulldogs, but ever since recruiting heated up, every school is viewed on an equal playing surface. Ole Miss, SMU, Georgia, Texas, Arizona State, and LSU have all been schools hitting the telephone hard after Horton. Fall Game Schedule: Sept. 5: Texas A&M Sept. 19: Ole Miss (vs. LSU) Nov. 14: Georgia (vs. Missouri) TBD: SMU TBD: Texas Horton said he heard from Kyle Flood and Steve Sarkisian each a couple of weeks ago, adding that they have been in touch since receiving his offer in the spring. "I went there for spring ball, and then Coach Flood came and he gave me the offer (at Lovejoy) real quick. It was one of the coolest experiences ever." Horton said he didn't know the offer was coming, but he was completely shocked when Flood extended the offer to him. "Great school, great coaching and produce some of the best players in the country. They seem to truly care to play for their players and they just have an amazing program." Texas will host Horton at some point this season. *** 2028 OL Jayden Thompson The left tackle at Lovejoy High has been a hot commodity on the recruiting trail as well. Going into his junior season, 6-foot-5-inch, 300-pound left tackle Jayden Thompson sits with 18 offers in his back pocket and plenty more to come after firmly being on college radars for about a year now. Thompson received his Texas offer back in March after visiting Austin for a spring practice and now has his sights set on putting together a monster junior season. "I really want to show that I can exceed to where I was my sophomore year, and that I am a better player than what they have seen last year," Thompson said. "I want to show that I have improved physically and that my knowledge of assignments, and the little things of the game ensure that I am taking the right steps." Thompson did not allow a pressure in the win over Reedy which saw the Leopards rack up over 600 yards of total offense in the process. He added that no sacks or missed assignments is the goal on a week to week basis for him. "One thing for me was pad level and footwork with pad level," Thompson said. "Making sure that I am lower and not giving up my chest to anyone. So when I am low, I am engaging properly and driving off the ball." I mentioned it above, but Thompson has already drawn interest from plenty of schools around the state and beyond. SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, and a few others are set to host Thompson for games this season. The Texas trip will come September 12th against Ohio State, a game Thompson said he is pumped to catch in person. In regard to his relationship with Kyle Flood and the Longhorn staff, Thompson said he feels like a genuine connection is brewing. "He seems really interested in me, and seems like a really good coach who cares for you more as a person than a football player which is something that I look for in coaches," Thompson said. "The attitude (at Texas), and the demeanor they keep there has helped them build up their program to what it is today." Things are very early for Thompson, as you would expect for most 2028's. But he said development is key for him. Leaving as a better football player and person in general than what you arrived as is key for him. Other offers so far for Thompson include Arizona, Houston, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, TCU, Wisconsin and plenty of others. *** Will have updates on both players following their trips to Austin this fall. Texas has both firmly on their radars.

He said the same thing the last two seasons. Rinse and repeat... He is worried about game #12 now, I really love Texas chances going into that stadium again .

Marcel Reed in 2 games vs Texas. 0 TDs, 3 picks, 1 fumble lost.

“I have something for them” aww another completion to our secondary how sweet

I guess he forgot that first loss was at College Station as well... 🤘

Sounds like Reed’s mouth is writing checks his body cannot cash.