OTF Premium Why this is a dangerous new era for a college football program

[Itsamystery]

We have had this approach in the past.. it was JUCO ball. 
 

in the near future a number of FBS schools will have 80% of their team made up of underclassman. The upper class man will move on to competitive programs. This will further divide college football between the haves and have nots. I don’t like this at all.

Parity will never take place and the overall quality of the product will fall off. Sure there will be super teams, but not necessarily super conferences. Looking at the SEC and Big10, half their members would be classified as development schools.

Eventually something has to give as BMD’s cannot afford to give donations just to NIL. Athletic directors are always going to need new facilities and improvements. College athletics is going to face some difficult days ahead.

[LECHorns]

See, @Gerry Hamilton I think I agree with your premise, but I disagree with some of the specifics.

I think guys like C. Jones (724th kid in nation), Sweat (605), Ford (1200), Helm (666), and Sorrell (683) are exactly who you're going to see most of your class made up of.  I don't mean those specific players -- so nothing about size, scheme, fit, etc. -- just general profile of prospect.  I might agree with you on Barron (343) and Murphy (393).  Cummings (603), Walker (746), Scherer (1160) and Jilek (1502) were all last minute adds once we embraced this new model.

I think HS classes for the elite programs will be 8-12 Atkinson, Wesley, Bishop -- top 100 -- and then a lot more of the guys ranked 400+.  I think you could still see classes of 25-30 bodies, they're just filled with these longer development types.  To be clear, those guys will have to be willing to accept ~$0 of NIL.  So, Barron who flipped from Baylor (did Murphy, too?), probably isn't eligible.  The vast majority of these kids will know they aren't playing in Year 1.  After Year 1, some will leave.  But it will have cost you $0.  After Year 1, the coaches may be able to better assess the talent level, so some may get paid a bit (this is the old school way of giving a walk-on a scholarship), but most will continue being scholarship-only players.  The purpose of this group is a) to find a Christian Jones, Michael Taaffe, Gunner Helm, etc., but also b) give you bodies to hit in practice and establish your foundation and culture.  

I think it's the Broughton, Livingstone, Cruz, Dubose -- guys ranked ~150-400 -- that never get brought in.  They'll want to get paid, then they'll want raises regardless of production - and that's what can't happen.  I totally agree with your second category -- those guys are allowed to walk today.

I think you'll still carry 80-90 players, but you'll only be paying 50 studs and maybe another 15 depth guys.  Recruit ~10 elite HS kids a year, you'll churn some and there's an average tenure of ~3 years -- you'll carry 30-35 of these at any given time.  Go get ~10 portal studs (big money) that expect to start immediately -- you'll carry ~10 of these at a time.  Bolster your depth through the portal with 5-10 a year, so carry ~10 at a time.  And then fill the rest with $0 HS kids (incl specialists) at ~12 a year, so carry ~30 at any given time.  All said, you'll carry ~80-85, maybe 90 scholarships.  I think we're at 90 today if you assume we add 8 more through the portal.

By my count (currently)

37 HS Studs (but this will decline as we evolve to new model)

15 Portal Studs (assuming we add LB, 2 OL, DB, DE) -- this will decline over time as the new model evolves, but you'll have years of spikes based on exPorts/NFL

10 Portal Depth/Specialists (assuming we add RB, QB, OL) -- this will increase over time as the new model evolves

28 HS Hopefuls

=90

 

PS - Cig got a great head start on everyone.  I think the term "Moneyball" is thrown around too loosely as a term for "good general management," but I do think Indiana replicated Moneyball -- they put focus and value on metrics (i.e., production and experience) where other programs prioritized other more common metrics.  But now the cat is out of the bag and others will copy.  The market for 23 year old players will be more competitive and efficient.  Can Indiana/Cig repeat what they've done?  Was Mendoza a product of Cig's system, or did Cig buy the Heisman trophy winner for free?  I'm not knocking what they've done this year - it's incredible.  But the book is written and now there are other, e.g., DePodestas, out there.