OTF Premium A Stat That Must Change in 2026 | Tuesday 2:20 p.m.

[CJ Vogel]

As I typically do around this time of the year, I found an interesting stat that I believe must change for Texas to reach the heights they want to in 2026.

A look at the time of possession from teams that won 10+ games a year ago.

***

2. James Madison (34:12.71)

3. Georgia (33:52.43)

5. Ohio State (33:07.00)

7. Miami (33:04.44)

9. BYU (32:43.21)

10. Indiana (32:37.94)

11. Navy (32:36.92)

14. Texas A&M (32:30.31)

16. Houston (32:18.08)

18. Virginia (32:16.14)

27. Alabama (31:32.33)

36. Vanderbilt (31:00.69)

40. Tulane (30:51.64)

41. Oregon (30:48.73)

42. Utah (30:47.77)

74. Oklahoma (29:44.31)

76. Texas Tech (29:39.86)

87. Notre Dame (29:17.92)

106. Ole Miss (28:43.87)

109. Texas (28:29.92)

112. North Texas (28:23.07)

***

Only three teams with 10+ wins a year ago had a time of possession ranking outside of the top 100, with the Longhorns having the second worst among the group.

Only six of the 21 teams lost the time of possession battle. 

Ole Miss was an extreme outlier given how successful their run in the CFP was. Texas Tech did not score a point in the CFP and Oklahoma blew a 17-point lead at home in their meeting with Alabama.

Notre Dame, North Texas and Texas all missed the CFP.

 

[Tuco Ramirez]

That doesn’t surprise me given the offensive inefficiency in the first half of the season and PK’s bend don’t break defense. I would expect better this year although the schedule will play a role in dictating that. 

[CJ Vogel]

An improved offensive line and run game should certainly help this case.

 

2025: Texas ranked 109th (28:29.92)

2024: Texas ranked 74th (29:51.63)

2023: Texas ranked 36th (31:13.14)

2022: Texas ranked 120th (27:18.62)

2021: Texas ranked 110th (28:05.67)

[Glass Joe]

Another way to look at that data is 5 of the teams on the bottom of your list were all ranked in the top 12 of the final CFB Rankings last season.  That’s 43% (5 of the top 12) ranked teams were outside the top 75 in time of possession.  

Tech, OU, Notre Dame, Texas, and Ole Miss.  3 of those 5 teams (25%) made the Playoffs, and the other 2 teams were the first out (ND, Texas).  And North Texas would’ve made the Playoffs too if they’d beaten Tulane in the AAC CG.

Personally, I don’t think time of possession is a terribly relevant offensive statistic any longer in modern college football.  It’s the flip side of many of the advanced offensive efficiency metrics.  If you can score points while requiring fewer offensive plays to do so, that’s a more efficient offense.

That said, I DO think time of possession can be an indicative stat for defense (counter intuitively) as the more snaps your defense faces on the field, the more likely the opposing teams are to eventually score points.  Of course, ND, OU, and Tech all had top defenses last season, so T.O.P. isn’t revealing defensive fatigue either.

[CJ Vogel]

7 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

Another way to look at that data is 5 of the teams on the bottom of your list were all ranked in the top 12 of the final CFB Rankings last season.  That’s 43% (5 of the top 12) ranked teams were outside the top 75 in time of possession.  

Tech, OU, Notre Dame, Texas, and Ole Miss.  3 of those 5 teams (25%) made the Playoffs, and the other 2 teams were the first out (ND, Texas).  And North Texas would’ve made the Playoffs too if they’d beaten Tulane in the AAC CG.

Personally, I don’t think time of possession is a terribly relevant offensive statistic any longer in modern college football.  It’s the flip side of many of the advanced offensive efficiency metrics.  If you can score points while requiring fewer offensive plays to do so, that’s a more efficient offense.

That said, I DO think time of possession can be an indicative stat for defense (counter intuitively) as the more snaps your defense faces on the field, the more likely the opposing teams are to eventually score points.  Of course, ND, OU, and Tech all had top defenses last season, so T.O.P. isn’t revealing defensive fatigue either.

I do think T.O.P. is a strong indicator of whether or not your trenches are dominant on both sides of the football. It won't dictate whether or not you win/lose games, but I do think it showcases the ability for teams to win at the line of scrimmage more times than not.

I was very surprised to see Notre Dame as low on the T.O.P. rankings as they were given their running game and ability to beat teams up front.

[akhookem]

Muschamp will have teams punt the ball quicker. Offense will be on the field more often and increase TOP. Sometimes the defense would not allow any points on a drive, yet still be out there for 3-4 minutes of game time from getting teams to 3rd down repeatedly and converting slowly down the field