OTF Premium Passing game progress headlines stats, matchups to watch when No. 7 Texas faces Florida

[Jeff Howe]

AUSTIN, Texas — The elixir for what’s ailed the Texas passing game through the first five games of the 2026 season could be facing Florida’s secondary.

The Gators will roll into Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the seventh-ranked Longhorns on Saturday (11 a.m., ABC), with the nation’s 131st-ranked pass defense in tow. In addition to allowing 268.7 yards per game through the air, opponents have torched Jon Sumrall’s defense for 10 touchdowns and 22 completions of 20 yards more, tied for 118th in FBS.

If Texas (4-1, 1-1 SEC) is going to turn a corner offensively after Steve Sarkisian’s unit wilted in the second half of a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, it must produce against Florida (4-2, 2-2). A critical stretch of three October home games for the Longhorns begins with their third game in as many seasons against the Gators, who are 90th nationally in yards per play allowed (5.64), are ranked 121st in third-down defense (46.7 percent conversion rate allowed) and are tied for 87th in FBS in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (63.6 percent, with 14 red-zone touchdowns tied for 109th in the country).

Sarkisian said during his Thursday pregame Zoom meeting with the media that the running game is closer to becoming something Texas can count on, “than maybe we're getting credit for.” Even though the offense started clicking late in the loss to the Sooners when the Longhorns operated out of 10 personnel (four wide receivers, one running back and no tight ends) with Jermaine Bishop Jr. on the field, Sarkisian wants a balanced offense.

“Don't get me wrong, our 10 personnel is really good to us. It's grown as the season's gone on and it's been effective, but you have layers to that,” Sarkisian said. “Your run game can get limited, your pass protections can get limited, so you have to have other things to offset that if people are trying to attack that aspect of your game.”

No matter which personnel packages Texas utilizes against Florida, Arch Manning will look to pick up where Austin Simmons and LaNorris Sellers left off against the Gators. Simmons completed a season-high 76.7 percent of his passes (23-for-30) and threw for 340 yards (one yard shy of tying his career high) in Missouri’s 45-17 rout of Florida on Oct. 3. Sellers threw 279 yards and a season-high four touchdowns last Saturday, helping South Carolina deliver a 38-19 smackdown at the Swamp.

To shine against the Gators, who picked Manning off twice and sacked him six times in last season’s 29-21 win over Texas in Gainesville, Manning must reverse a couple of unsavory trends.

Manning, who has an 11-0 record as a starter at DKR, has thrown five interceptions in five games, including two critical misfires against Oklahoma. According to Pro Football Focus, 56 of Manning's pressured dropbacks have resulted in 12 sacks, a 21.4-percent pressure-to-sack rate that’s pacing well ahead of his 13.3-percent mark in 2025 (22 sacks on 165 pressured dropbacks).

If Manning gets rid of the football quickly and protects it, the Longhorns can build on what went right against the Sooners. The list includes a season-high four completions of 20 or more yards, Cam Coleman’s first 100-yard game as a Longhorn (110 yards and a touchdown on five receptions) and Bishop’s first-career touchdown catch (a 15-yard strike from Manning in the fourth quarter).

Beyond whatever numbers the passing game produces on Saturday, Sarkisian wants to see the offense start to look like a unit that’s making strides “to a point to where we can beat the elite teams, knowing that that's who you have to beat if you want to have a really good record at the end of the year.”

“I look more at our execution, our level of consistency, knowing the quality of players and the quality of coaches and the environments that we play in,” he said.

OTHER STATS AND MATCHUPS TO WATCH WHEN THE LONGHORNS FACE THE GATORS

— According to PFF, Manning has been blitzed on 40.3 percent of his dropbacks this season (73 of 181). Florida enters the game with a season-long blitz rate of 30.6 percent, according to PFF. Expect the Gators to dial up pressure with extra pass rushers against Manning like UTSA (blitzed Manning on 22 of 42 dropbacks) and Tennessee (blitzed on 13 of 30 dropbacks) did in recent weeks.

The matchup between Manning and Brad White, however, extends beyond the six- and seven-man pressures the Florida defensive coordinator is expected to throw at the Texas quarterback.

While Sarkisian wants Manning's legs to be a weapon, Manning has to pick his spots wisely. Manning has scrambled out of a clean pocket 15 times among 22 total scrambles this season, according to PFF. That helps explain why Manning's average of 7.5 yards per scramble is down from last season (10.9 yards per scramble) and why he hasn't been as effective on the move as he was in 2025.

— Whether Aaron Philo plays or Tramell Jones Jr. makes his first career start at quarterback for the Gators, Vernell Brown III’s return will test the secondary in the deep part of the field.

Brown, who missed Florida’s losses to Missouri and South Carolina with a knee injury and is considered a game-time decision, has been targeted 11 times this season, six of them on attempts of 20 yards or more downfield, according to PFF. Brown has caught three of the six deep shots, which have accounted for 97 of his 133 receiving yards.

If Brown and Eric Singleton Jr., who has been working his way back from an ankle injury he suffered in the Gators’ 66-21 season-opening win over Florida Atlantic, are in the lineup alongside Dallas Wilson and Bailey Stockton, the Florida wideouts might be the most talented group of wide receivers the Longhorn secondary will face in 2026, other than Ohio State.

— A healthy Florida team on the perimeter means Will Muschamp can’t devote all of his resources to slowing down Jadan Baugh, who ran for 107 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries against Texas last season.

The lack of viable threats in the passing game helped Missouri and South Carolina focus most of their attention on stopping Baugh. Both defenses kept him from getting loose and taking over the game, which will be one of Muschamp's primary objectives. The Tigers held Baugh to 13 yards on 12 carries, while the SEC’s third-leading rusher (112 yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry) finished with 59 yards on 15 carries against the Gamecocks.

Muschamp’s defense hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Currently, Bo Jackson’s 74-yard outing in the Longhorns’ 24-23 comeback win over Ohio State on Sept. 12 is the best performance an opposing running back has had against Texas in 2026. Georgia and South Carolina are the only two SEC defenses to allow fewer 10-plus-yard runs than the Longhorns (15) this season, with only Mississippi State allowing fewer 20-plus-yard runs than Texas (three).

After the Gators ran for 159 yards (4.3 yards per carry) against the Longhorns at the Swamp last season, Saturday’s game is an opportunity for the Texas defense to send a message that it isn’t the same unit that lost the line-of-scrimmage battle in a landslide when the two clubs met more than a year ago.

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[Jeff Howe]

The conditions are ripe for Texas to have success throwing the football.

We'll see what unfolds in less than 24 hours.

[Alex Butler]

Stop that run and jump those short routes. Over play leverage to the inside and force long throws. Gotta tackle in space this week. Quick passing and be stubborn about the run on offense. Let’s break out of this lull and put these guys away early. 

[UT_Ro]

Let Arch Run The Damn Ball!