SEC and the CFP race

The race to get in the CFP from the SEC is getting a little more clear after Saturday, with a number of scenarios still in play.

Georgia (8-1, 6-1)
Win one of next two SEC games, and they are a lock. They are in, unless they do something a Kirby Smart doesn't do - meltdown. SoCar in two weeks with hobbled LaNorris Sellers isn't the formula for the Gamecocks to have a realistic shot.

vs. Missouri
at South Carolina
vs. Georgia Tech

Alabama (7-2, 4-2)
Massive win for Alabama last night. They are essentially in, barring the unexpected against the easiest schedule remaining in the conference.

at Vanderbilt
vs. Chattonooga
vs. Auburn

Texas (7-2, 4-2)
The win yesterday for the Longhorns puts them in, unless they meltdown. And by meltdown, I mean lose at LSU and then at A&M. If the Horns can win at LSU, it takes all pressure off.

at LSU
vs. Arkansas
at Texas A&M

Tennessee (7-2, 4-2)
The Vols won a "must win" yesterday, and now they are set up. Jim Knowles vs. Marcel Reed seems like a good bet. Hosting LSU is a doozy.

at Texas A&M
vs. LSU
at Vanderbilt

Kentucky (7-2, 4-2)
The Wildcats are likely to take another loss. They are a nice story this year, but their finishing stretch is tough.

vs. Florida
at Missouri
vs. Louisville

Have to win out to have shot...

LSU (6-3, 4-3)
vs. Texas
at Tennessee
at Arkansas

Ole Miss (6-3, 4-3)
at Oklahoma
vs. Wofford
vs. Mississippi State

South Carolina (6-3, 4-3)
at Arkansas
vs. Georgia
at Clemson

Missouri (6-3, 4-3)
at Georgia
vs. Kentucky
vs. Oklahoma

Yesterday around CFB ...

ND is set up, but they can lose to SMU if they don't get healthier on D. They were down 4 starters Saturday, but it evened out with Miami being with Toney, No. 2 WR and LG.

Miami has to navigate with a banged up squad too. They could lose again, even on that schedule plus the ACC title game. But have three "home" games to end regular season.

BYU is done.

UCLA continues to win, and may have a shot at drawing 50,000 the next home game!

Ohio State is on deaths doorstep... with Northwestern, at Nebraska (speaking of deaths doorstep) and vs Michigan remaining. A lot of deaths doorstep mentioned here!

Wake Forest keeps winning, but has to win at SMU this week.

SMU has a shot to end very strong ... something to watch in the ACC

Out of the 4 “to have a shot”, would you say Ole Miss would be the most difficult getting in at 9-3? Easiest schedule remaining but best wins would be Louisville, LSU and Mizzo? Bad beatdowns of FLA/Georgia. At least the other 3 would earn it down the stretch with those schedules imo.

I disagree that Texas is automatically “in” with a loss at LSU and finishing out 9-3. Let’s assume Texas loses to LSU and goes 9-3:

The primary problems for Texas getting into the Playoffs at 9-3 (with a loss to LSU) are both Wake Forest and a second Big 12 team (11-1 Texas Tech) getting into the Playoffs. If both Texas Tech and Wake Forest go 11-1 in the regular season, the SEC will likely only get 4 teams into the Playoffs. And this is where the pecking order within the SEC teams becomes an issue for Texas.

1. Georgia has a clear path to at least 10-2 regular season (more likely 11-1). They’re in Playoffs. Book it.

2. Bama has a clear path to 10-2 regular season. They’re in the Playoffs. (Note: Bama was ranked two spots ahead of Texas this week while both teams were 6-2…that tells me Bama can even lose an unexpected game and fall to 9-3 and still be ahead of a 9-3 Texas).

3. Kentucky is a bid stealer for Texas. Kentucky will be favored in their last 3 games, and will likely finish 10-2 (IMO). Kentucky at 7-1 was ranked ahead of Texas at 6-2, so why wouldn’t a 10-2 Kentucky also be ranked ahead of a 9-3 Texas?

4. Tennessee - they will also be favored in their last 3 games, and should finish at 10-2 (IMO). While Texas hold the head-to-head advantage, does a 9-3 Texas move ahead of a 10-2 Tennessee…particularly after Texas loses to LSU but Tenneseee beats LSU the following week? Doubtful.

The scenario above puts a 9-3 Texas as the fifth best resume / record in the SEC pecking order. If there are only 4 Playoff spots available for the SEC, a 9-3 Texas may be the one left out. Unfortunately, our trump card of the win over Ohio State no longer carries much value as they have now been effectively eliminated from Playoff contention at 6-3 with a back-up QB.

Realistically, I do think a 9-3 Texas will get into the Playoffs as there will surely be some upset of another contender over the next 2-3 weeks (hopefully, SMU beats Wake Forest next week), but there is still a path for a 9-3 Texas to get left out of the Playofffs if all the favorites win out over the next few weeks.

Net-net: Root for SMU and Oklahoma State to win this weekend. Or, hold your nose and hope Aggy upsets Tennessee. If any of those things happen, a 9-3 Texas very likely makes the Playoffs.

Edited 15 minutes ago15 min by Glass Joe

Looks like Texas could finish the regular season 10-2 and not have to play in the SEC Championship game because Alabama's win over LSU gives them a tiebreaker over Texas due to better conference opponent winning percentage, so it would be Alabama vs Georgia in Atlanta for the umpteenth time. Texas could end up seeded in the 5-7 range and host a first-round CFP game or end up 4 and receive a first-round bye. I do think Texas must win out to make the CFP now with Notre Dame's win over Miami imo.

Just win out. Then I’d love to face Tech in a playoff game to ruin their lives yet again!

You just can’t take for granted that a 9-3 Texas will get in. With so many two loss SEC teams and the conference championship games, the number of slots for a three loss Texas is an unknown. You have to play like every game is an elimination game from here through January.

11 minutes ago, TTaylor2135 said:

Out of the 4 “to have a shot”, would you say Ole Miss would be the most difficult getting in at 9-3? Easiest schedule remaining but best wins would be Louisville, LSU and Mizzo? Bad beatdowns of FLA/Georgia. At least the other 3 would earn it down the stretch with those schedules imo.

I think both Ole Miss and Mizzou could both technically finish at 9-3, and be left out due to where they currently stand in the pecking order.

Then there is LSU. If LSU somehow beats both Texas AND Tennessee the following week, they’d finish at 9-3 and have a strong argument to get into the Playoffs over both Texas and Tennessee.

2 minutes ago, Glass Joe said:

I think both Ole Miss and Mizzou could both technically finish at 9-3, and be left out due to where they currently stand in the pecking order.

Then there is LSU. If LSU somehow beats both Texas AND Tennessee the following week, they’d finish at 9-3 and have a strong argument to get into the Playoffs over both Texas and Tennessee.

Agreed