Hurricane Season Thread

[Blake Munroe]

 

[Blake Munroe]

 

[Blake Munroe]

 

[Blake Munroe]

 

[Gerry Hamilton]

 

[Gerry Hamilton]

28 minutes ago, Blake Munroe said:

 

Im betting its a cat 2+ or 3- at landfall 

[bierce]

Here are July 5 12z models for HMON, HWRF, and GFS.  HAFS-A and HAFS-B differ so wildly from each other that I think they are still experimenting with parameters, so I didn't include them.

HMON and HWRF are projections for 4 am July 8,  GFS for 7 am July 8.

 

 

[bierce]

What is particularly striking about the 12z models is that HMON was predicting 24 hours earlier for max winds of only 40mph upon landfall.  Now it predicts Beryl spending 12 more hours in the gulf and making landfall with 85+ max winds.  That is a huge change in one day.

[CJ Vogel]

The worst of the storm is past Jamaica which is great news for me with my parents out on vacation there this week. 

[bierce]

42 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

Im betting its a cat 2+ or 3- at landfall 

An overachiever to its end, eh?

[bierce]

Ok, I tried to get a grasp on the difference between HAFS-A and HAFS-B and found this explanation.

It's like reading Wittgenstein.  You're baffled at the start.  You read a little more and start to understand.  Then you read a little more and come to the realization you don't.

HAFS-A - The operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) configuration “A” modeling system (Version 1.0) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. HAFS is configured with two storm-centric domains with nominal horizontal resolutions of 6 km and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The moving nest is ~12° x ~12° and follows the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). HAFS-A obtains its atmospheric initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational GFS and oceanic initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS). In contrast to HAFS-B, HAFS-A initializes the vortex based on the maximum wind error of the first guess at analysis time and uses a GFS-based physics suite with TC specific modifications in PBL and surface surface schemes. This physics suite includes the GFDL microphysics parameterization and a modified eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) planetary boundary layer parameterization. Modifications are made in the EDMF-TKE PBL scheme which makes the mixing length scale near the surface in PBL consistent with that used in the surface-layer module. Surface roughness lengths for momentum and scalar are specified as a function of wind speed to match observed drag coefficients in the surface parameterization scheme. Independent HAFS-A forecasts are created for up to five active tropical cyclones and invests worldwide. HAFS-A model forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h.

• Documentation: https://github.com/hafs-community/HAFS
• Alt. Web Site: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/

 

HAFS-B - The operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) configuration “B” modeling system (Version 1.0) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. HAFS is configured with two storm-centric domains with nominal horizontal resolutions of 6 km and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The moving nest is ~12° x ~12° and follows the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). HAFS-B obtains its atmospheric initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational GFS and oceanic initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS). In contrast to HAFS-A, HAFS-B initializes the vortex slightly differently (although still based on the initial maximum wind error) and uses a unique physics suite. This physics suite includes the Thompson microphysics parameterization and a modified eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) planetary boundary layer parameterization with modifications for hurricane environments based on advanced research. Independent HAFS-A forecasts are created for up to two active tropical cyclones and invests in NHC basins (NATL/EPAC). HAFS-B model forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h.

• Documentation: https://github.com/hafs-community/HAFS
• Alt. Web Site: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSB/

[Blake Munroe]

 

[bierce]

NHC 4pm CDT advisory.  I bolded the coordinates predicted for landfall.  
That's in the middle of Corpus Christi Bay, btw.


732 
WTNT42 KNHC 052045
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except
for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data
from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become
less organized.  The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the
inner core.

The initial motion is now 295/13 kt.  There is little change in 
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the 
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally 
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge 
over the southeastern United States.  After that, a turn toward the 
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge 
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies 
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving 
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion should 
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.  
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.  
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory, 
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on 
the eastern side of the guidance envelope.  The new forecast track 
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the 
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional 
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.

Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges 
over the Gulf of Mexico this evening.  After that, it could take 
12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of 
Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during 
this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly 
shear.  Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity 
guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start 
around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit 
generous.  However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as 
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with 
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence.  This 
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening.  The new 
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in 
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this 
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than 
currently forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and 
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and 
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional 
watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in 
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 

2.  Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the 
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of 
next week. 

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through 
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed 
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials 
before venturing into the water. 

4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over 
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.2N  89.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0600Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1800Z 23.2N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 24.3N  94.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.3N  95.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 26.5N  96.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 27.8N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...AT COAST
 96H  09/1800Z 30.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1800Z 32.5N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Horn95]

 

[Blake Munroe]

 

[Blake Munroe]

 

[bierce]

HMON and HWRF have moved landfall slightly north in the 18z run.  HWRF has Beryl making landfall almost 6 hours later than HMON.

HWRF projection is for 7 am CDT Jul 8.  HMON is for 1 am CDT Jul 8

 

[southpaw]

9 hours ago, Jerry K said:

This is what I was afraid of. We have a RV in Rockport. Looks I’ll be moving it out. I’ll bet it’s gonna be stronger than NWS predicts. 

My neighbor has property in Rockport they are building a small vacation home on.  They left the afternoon of July 4 to drag their camper down there to do some work.  I asked them why go with the possibility of the hurricane hitting in that area.  They said they'll deal with it if it happens.  Makes me wonder if they'll be back tonight or tomorrow.

[Jerry K]

16 minutes ago, southpaw said:

My neighbor has property in Rockport they are building a small vacation home on.  They left the afternoon of July 4 to drag their camper down there to do some work.  I asked them why go with the possibility of the hurricane hitting in that area.  They said they'll deal with it if it happens.  Makes me wonder if they'll be back tonight or tomorrow.

Im sure there will be a bunch with RV’s that leave and many that don’t. With a hurricane coming up the coastline regardless of where it lands I’m not going to take a chance. 

[bierce]

18z run of ECMWF shows landfall near Freeport.

[bierce]

10 CDT update from NHC.  It boils down to a slight northly shift from last message.  Landfall predicted on Matagorda Island  late morning July 8.  Strength bumped up a smidgin to borderline cat 1/cat 2 at landfall.  Usual caveat of 80-100 mile error range and +/- 1 category in strength.

337 
WTNT42 KNHC 060243
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly titled with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center.  The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt.  The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.

Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the 
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the 
southeastern U.S.  This motion should continue through early 
Saturday,  After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a 
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a 
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S. 
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in 
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just 
before Beryl makes landfall.  The latest guidance has again shifted 
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the 
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions.  The new 
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction, 
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.  

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage 
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to 
recover.  However, the overall environmental conditions are 
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and 
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track.  In 
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind 
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the 
coast, which could aid in the intensification process.  Although the 
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the 
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the 
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show 
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next 
couple of days.  Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC 
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day 
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes 
landfall.  This forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended 
eastward along the Texas coast.  It is important to note that the 
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the 
average intensity error is close to one category.  Users are 
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast 
information.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and 
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and 
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday, where 
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Additional watches 
and warnings may be required on Saturday. Interests in these areas 
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.7N  90.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.7N  91.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.9N  93.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 25.0N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 26.2N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 27.6N  96.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 29.2N  96.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0000Z 31.8N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 33.9N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Edited July 6 by bierce

[TarrantCoHorn]

I’m currently in Galveston for a planned 4th of July trip with the family. Leaving first thing in the morning.

[bierce]

Working at lake property so unable to post in detail, but most recent projections differ only slightly from last night.  If anything a very slight shift back west, but center still expected to make landfall between Corpus and Port Lavaca.

[Shane]

22 hours ago, CJ Vogel said:

The worst of the storm is past Jamaica which is great news for me with my parents out on vacation there this week. 

Glad they’re safe CJ ! 

[Horn95]

 

Edited July 6 by Horn95