CHorn427 Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Our schedule is obviously relatively light this year (except UGA and TAMU). Set us up nicely to win, but potentially sets us up poorly if we finish with 2 losses (particularly if the second loss is TAMU). If we lose to TAMU, we’ll have beaten no team that has a shot at a final Top25 finish. If we lose to Florida, Ark or UK, that will be one of the worst losses of any 2 loss team in the country (if not THE worst). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorn007 Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 maybe doesnt apply as much in todays game, but it used to be if your ranked very high at start of season you will drop slowly in ranking. if we lose to a highly ranked aggie we will not drop much in ranking. if byu were to lose they will drop bigly. they started out of top 25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Gerry Hamilton Posted October 28 Moderators Share Posted October 28 $$$ 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quinncent McManning, Jr. Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Was just going to post what Gerry posted. Given 4 10-2 teams with an argument for one spot, Texas will have a built in advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk4pres Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 12-0 Oregon 11-1 OSU 11-1 Penn St 11-1 Indiana That's a problem. We need to find a way to win out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHorn427 Posted October 28 Author Share Posted October 28 1 hour ago, Thorn007 said: maybe doesnt apply as much in todays game, but it used to be if your ranked very high at start of season you will drop slowly in ranking. if we lose to a highly ranked aggie we will not drop much in ranking. if byu were to lose they will drop bigly. they started out of top 25 Not really about dropping in the rankings. The issue is resume. If we go 3-1 in the next 4 games with a loss to TAMU, we don’t really have a resume. Michigan and OU are our two “big wins” right now. Michigan has 3 losses and still has to play Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. Very high chance of finishing 6-6. OU has a high chance of finishing 5-7. TAMU now seems like our only opportunity to beat a P4 team that will finish with 8 or more wins for the season. If we lose that game, we will have a very lackluster resume with no signature wins over quality opponents 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk4pres Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Big 12 can also be an issue as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHorn427 Posted October 28 Author Share Posted October 28 1 hour ago, Gerry Hamilton said: $$$ I definitely get this advantage. However, straight up with comparing resumes, Texas will lose out to nearly every other potential 10-2 resume from the B1G or SEC. Not even accounting for the abundance of 1-loss P4 teams. Bobby says Texas should be in over Bama. If Bama finishes with 2 losses, their Top 2 wins over UGA and LSU will look a lot stronger than our best 2 wins (should we lose to TAMU). There’s a lot of money in getting Bama into the CFP, as well (2023 selection committee says hi). Add to that the negative momentum from literally losing the last game of the season for Texas. I’m calling it tenuous. Now, 10-2 with that second loss not being to TAMU completely changes the complexion. If we lose a close one to one of our next 3 and get the win over TAMU, I like our chances considerably more. Like best 10-2 team on the board. If we lose, I think we will be the worst resume 10-2 team on the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHorn427 Posted October 28 Author Share Posted October 28 16 minutes ago, cmk4pres said: Big 12 can also be an issue as well Big12 will have two teams maximum (BYU and winner of KSU-ISU) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk4pres Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 (edited) 1 hour ago, CHorn427 said: Big12 will have two teams maximum (BYU and winner of KSU-ISU) Likely but for awhile everyone thought just one for them. So likely 2 with outside shot at a 3rd. Spots filling up Edited October 28 by cmk4pres Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4thandFive Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 4 hours ago, Thorn007 said: maybe doesnt apply as much in todays game, but it used to be if your ranked very high at start of season you will drop slowly in ranking. if we lose to a highly ranked aggie we will not drop much in ranking. if byu were to lose they will drop bigly. they started out of top 25 We better not lose to A&M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk4pres Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 (edited) Just spitballing here... 1) Oregon 2) UGA 3) BYU 4) Clemson 5) Ohio St 6) Miami 7) Texas/aggy winner 8) ND 9) Penn St 10) Iowa St 11) Texas/aggy loser/ lsu/bama winner/ Tenn 12) Boise St Indiana could be 11-1. I mean whoa Edited October 28 by cmk4pres Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTown Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 Time will tell but need some of these teams that weren't expected to be this good to lose. I see a minimum of 6 from the Big 10 and SEC. Add the other 2 champions and P4 bid plus yes Notre Dame , leaves 2 spots imo. Does ACC get a second team, or Big 12 a second? That complicates things if .. Can get real interesting, but plenty of time to sort it out though. You would think 10-2 would get us in , but may depend who the loss is too etc. Basically have to play like it is the playoffs now for us. We can lose a Championship game at 10-2 and get in imo. But 10-2 and not in that game might be dicey. We will see 🤘 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austalgia Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 (edited) 3 hours ago, cmk4pres said: 12-0 Oregon 11-1 OSU 11-1 Penn St 11-1 Indiana That's a problem. We need to find a way to win out These teams about to canabalize each other, but yes we should still win out and leave no doubt. Edited October 28 by Austalgia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assistant Regional Manager Posted October 28 Share Posted October 28 2 hours ago, CHorn427 said: Big12 will have two teams maximum (BYU and winner of KSU-ISU) Iowa State will not make it in as an at large with a loss over a 2 loss SEC school. Iowa State may not play a ranked opponent in the regular season depending on where KSU is when they play. They also played a non con of North Dakota, Iowa and Arkansas State. BYU is a different story because they have a non-con win on the road at SMU that looks pretty good right now. They are likely in with 1 loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assistant Regional Manager Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 1 hour ago, cmk4pres said: Just spitballing here... 1) Oregon 2) UGA 3) BYU 4) Clemson 5) Ohio St 6) Miami 7) Texas/aggy winner 😎 ND 9) Penn St 10) Iowa St 11) Texas/aggy loser/ lsu/bama winner/ Tenn 12) Boise St Indiana could be 11-1. I mean whoa Tennessee at 10-2 assuming they lose to Georgia will be fighting an uphill battle when being compared to Texas and A&M. Their loss against Arkansas won’t look good against a 2-loss Texas or A&M, assuming the second loss for either team is against each other. Georgia and A&M loss > Arkansas and Georgia loss Notre Dame and Texas loss > Arkansas and Georgia loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk4pres Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 28 minutes ago, Austalgia said: These teams about to canabalize each other, but yes we should still win out and leave no doubt. Indiana doesn't play Penn St. so that Big scenario could very well play out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarveaux Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 3 hours ago, CHorn427 said: Not really about dropping in the rankings. The issue is resume. If we go 3-1 in the next 4 games with a loss to TAMU, we don’t really have a resume. Michigan and OU are our two “big wins” right now. Michigan has 3 losses and still has to play Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. Very high chance of finishing 6-6. OU has a high chance of finishing 5-7. TAMU now seems like our only opportunity to beat a P4 team that will finish with 8 or more wins for the season. If we lose that game, we will have a very lackluster resume with no signature wins over quality opponents Does this senerio change if SC beats A&M Saturday in your opinion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uthorn1374 Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 6 hours ago, Thorn007 said: maybe doesnt apply as much in todays game, but it used to be if your ranked very high at start of season you will drop slowly in ranking. if we lose to a highly ranked aggie we will not drop much in ranking. if byu were to lose they will drop bigly. they started out of top 25 Who has Ohio State beaten? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bierce Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 For reference, the cfp top 12 last year were all B1G, SEC, Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC teams with 2 losses or fewer. Only other teams in top 25 with 2 or fewer losses were Group of 5 Liberty and SMU (now an ACC team). If something similar happens this year, then we would have to fall behind every other 2 loss team to miss the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHorn427 Posted October 29 Author Share Posted October 29 33 minutes ago, uthorn1374 said: Who has Ohio State beaten? No one, yet. But to finish with no more than two losses they’ll need to beat either PSU or Indiana, and either win would be better than any Texas has if we don’t beat TAMU. Their one point loss to Oregon in Eugene is also as “good” of a loss as anyone right now, as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glass Joe Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 Texas fans need to root for Penn State over Ohio State this weekend, and SMU over Pitt. Sure, an unexpected upset always helps (SCar over aggy, Louisville over Clemson, or even MSU over Indiana), but the top two games would go a really long way to helping a 10-2 Texas get a playoff bid. I think a worst case scenario for Texas will be battling a 10-2 Tennessee for the final at-large spot. I’d narrowly favor Texas in the scenario, but it’ll depend on if there is even an available final at-large to apply the comparison. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHorn427 Posted October 29 Author Share Posted October 29 26 minutes ago, Glass Joe said: Texas fans need to root for Penn State over Ohio State this weekend, and SMU over Pitt. Sure, an unexpected upset always helps (SCar over aggy, Louisville over Clemson, or even MSU over Indiana), but the top two games would go a really long way to helping a 10-2 Texas get a playoff bid. I think a worst case scenario for Texas will be battling a 10-2 Tennessee for the final at-large spot. I’d narrowly favor Texas in the scenario, but it’ll depend on if there is even an available final at-large to apply the comparison. Should be a fun weekend to root for chaos, especially since Texas is on the couch 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justwinbaby Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 Texas needs to find a way and go 1-0 each game week and let things play out. Who knew that Vanderbilt would defeat Alabama and Arkansas would defeat Tennessee this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarveaux Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 39 minutes ago, justwinbaby said: Texas needs to find a way and go 1-0 each game week and let things play out. Who knew that Vanderbilt would defeat Alabama and Arkansas would defeat Tennessee this season. Just win baby 🤘 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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