Next Year

[dfwHorn]

I’m seeing a lot of way too early college football rankings having us as #1 for next season, and my guess is a lot of that is Arch hype, and to be honest I’m not too well versed in what other top teams are losing/gaining, but from an early glance here is my position by position view of if we could be better or worse… 

and yes, I know it’s too early to do this, but I need to do something to not think about yesterday, so humor me.

QB: better or even, I think Arch’s mobility is a game changer

RB: Better, Baxter returning will help

WR: Big question mark here, we weren’t great in 2024, so I don’t see us getting worse, but will need a big transfer.

TE: Probably worse here

OL: the inexperience scares me, but if we get the USC transfer and Campbell comes back that could help.

Offense Overall: Improved because of the run game will bring much needed balance.

 

Edge: Improved due to experience, this will be a strength.

DT: Potential weakness here, need these transfers to pan out, they don’t need to be rockstars as I feel our LB’s and Edges can bring that, but they need to be solid

LB: Improved due to experience

CB: Worse just because of Barron and Mukuba losses, but should still be above average group.

S: Solid, especially if Taffe comes back 

Defense Overall: slightly worse because of DT and CB, but should still be a very stout defense.

P: Improved, can’t get much worse

K: No idea what to expect here, need a transfer.

thoughts? Where am I wrong? 

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

21 minutes ago, dfwHorn said:

I’m seeing a lot of way too early college football rankings having us as #1 for next season, and my guess is a lot of that is Arch hype, and to be honest I’m not too well versed in what other top teams are losing/gaining, but from an early glance here is my position by position view of if we could be better or worse… 

and yes, I know it’s too early to do this, but I need to do something to not think about yesterday, so humor me.

QB: better or even, I think Arch’s mobility is a game changer

RB: Better, Baxter returning will help

WR: Big question mark here, we weren’t great in 2024, so I don’t see us getting worse, but will need a big transfer.

TE: Probably worse here

OL: the inexperience scares me, but if we get the USC transfer and Campbell comes back that could help.

Offense Overall: Improved because of the run game will bring much needed balance.

 

Edge: Improved due to experience, this will be a strength.

DT: Potential weakness here, need these transfers to pan out, they don’t need to be rockstars as I feel our LB’s and Edges can bring that, but they need to be solid

LB: Improved due to experience

CB: Worse just because of Barron and Mukuba losses, but should still be above average group.

S: Solid, especially if Taffe comes back 

Defense Overall: slightly worse because of DT and CB, but should still be a very stout defense.

P: Improved, can’t get much worse

K: No idea what to expect here, need a transfer.

thoughts? Where am I wrong? 

Way harder schedule, also think Texas isn’t the most talented team in the SEC next year. I got em with 3 losses no CFP

[hookemrj13]

Not bad. 

O Line and DL scare me and in the SEC that is not good 

Will the protection be there for arch? And is owens far enough along as qb2?

WR will be fine

DB worries me because Barron will be MISSED. Along with Makuba. 

Who else will we lose in transfer 😔

[CHorn427]

I think it’s highly probable that we’ll be preseason #1 or #2 and the Ohio State game will be an early #1 vs #2 matchup. The winner will certainly be #1 after the game. 

I think your assessments of the defense are pretty spot on. My take on the offense:

OL- I think we could actually be better next season, particularly on interior run blocking. By all accounts Neto Umeozulu is a mauler. I’m hoping the Neto, Robertson and Campbell combo on the interior can be an upgrade to our run game and up our physicality. I think Goosby and Baker should be above average to good in pass pro, and it will hopefully be less of an issue with Arch’s enhanced mobility relative to Quinn.

TE- Gunner was undeniably great, but we’ve been recruiting very well. TE could be a position that surprises next season.

WR- Like you said, don’t think it can be worse. If we can somehow get both Golden and Bolden back next season, I think we could actually be substantially better. 
 

 

[Texasborn91]

Let’s see where we stand after the spring portal. 

[Brho]

I really believe Arch’s ability to run is going to make a massive difference in the offense. I like Quinn but drifting back constantly and taking an 8 yard sack really hurt us when stepping up for a 5 yard run was available. 

[Deadhead_Horn]

8 minutes ago, HornsUpThumbsDown said:

Way harder schedule, also think Texas isn’t the most talented team in the SEC next year. I got em with 3 losses no CFP

"way harder" is a wild exaggeration. 

 

@ Ohio State

v. San Jose State

v. UTEP

v. Sam Houston 

@ Florida 

v. Oklahoma

@ Kentucky 

@ Mississippi State

v. Vanderbilt

@ Georgia 

v. Arkansas

v. A&M

 

....Where do you see three losses? 

At worst, they should be 10-2 with only 1 in-conference loss, which has them right back in the SEC Championship game next year. 

[HudGar1922]

need oline that can mive people off the line and kyle flood to coach them up.   need someone to call plays besides sark

[4thandFive]

6 minutes ago, Deadhead_Horn said:

"way harder" is a wild exaggeration. 

 

@ Ohio State

v. San Jose State

v. UTEP

v. Sam Houston 

@ Florida 

v. Oklahoma

@ Kentucky 

@ Mississippi State

v. Vanderbilt

@ Georgia 

v. Arkansas

v. A&M

 

....Where do you see three losses? 

At worst, they should be 10-2 with only 1 in-conference loss, which has them right back in the SEC Championship game next year. 

Agreed. Outside of Ohio State (who loses a ton of talent) I’m not seeing teams Texas should be scared of.

Toughest games are @ Georgia, @ Florida, and A&M in Austin. 
 

They should have 1 or 2 losses. 

[Deadhead_Horn]

1 minute ago, 4thandFive said:

Agreed. Outside of Ohio State (who loses a ton of talent) I’m not seeing teams Texas should be scared of.

Toughest games are @ Georgia, @ Florida, and A&M in Austin. 
 

They should have 1 or 2 losses. 

Agreed. And I think calling @ Florida a top 3 hardest game of their schedule shows where they are at as a program. Nobody should scare them. Maybe Reed progresses like crazy next year and A&M is really good. Or maybe Stockton becomes the next hottest thing at Georgia. But right now, that schedule looks very favorable for Texas.

[Texasrocks]

Next year will be interesting. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, and Ole Miss will all have new QBs. I'm sure there are others. OSU, Georgia, and Penn State lose a ton of talent and experience on defense. They'll still have talented players, but less experience.  Honestly, Texas isn't losing as much as many other top teams assuming Arch is as good as everything expects. Obviously, the portal could change things quickly. As could injuries.

[horns96]

I could see LSU and Oregon being above Texas in preseason rankings.  Oregon won't miss a beat on offense with Dante Moore (unless Lanning leaves for NFL and blows up the program) and LSU has Nussmeier back.

[CHorn427]

25 minutes ago, HornsUpThumbsDown said:

Way harder schedule, also think Texas isn’t the most talented team in the SEC next year. I got em with 3 losses no CFP

Vast overstatement. The only two other programs in the SEC that have recruited to Texas’ level the past three cycles have been Bama and UGA. Texas, Bama and UGA all will have first year starters at QB. I like Arch Manning to be the most successful of the three. UGA is losing at least 8 of 11 starters on defense and 4 of 5 OL.

tOSU will likely be losing at least 9 of 11 starters on defense. On offense, they’ll be losing Howard, Egbeka, Judkins and Henderson, plus possibly both OTs. 

Florida is the only other opponent on our schedule that should be able to challenge us next year. 

[Texasrocks]

14 minutes ago, Deadhead_Horn said:

"way harder" is a wild exaggeration. 

 

@ Ohio State

v. San Jose State

v. UTEP

v. Sam Houston 

@ Florida 

v. Oklahoma

@ Kentucky 

@ Mississippi State

v. Vanderbilt

@ Georgia 

v. Arkansas

v. A&M

....Where do you see three losses? 

At worst, they should be 10-2 with only 1 in-conference loss, which has them right back in the SEC Championship game next year. 

Florida is the only team that I'd expect to improve significantly compared to what we saw this year. Ohio State will be tough, but they lose a lot this year. Getting them early in the season is good. Georgia needs to figure out something on offense, though they seem to have Sark's number. OU, Kentucky, and Arkansas will be worse. I'd guess A&M, Vandy, and Miss St. will be about the same.

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

7 minutes ago, horns96 said:

I could see LSU and Oregon being above Texas in preseason rankings.  Oregon won't miss a beat on offense with Dante Moore (unless Lanning leaves for NFL and blows up the program) and LSU has Nussmeier back.

Oregon won’t miss a beat with Dante Moore? What’s he proven? Gabriel was playing very well and put up video game like numbers. Good luck replicating that.

[Austalgia]

54 minutes ago, Brho said:

I really believe Arch’s ability to run is going to make a massive difference in the offense. I like Quinn but drifting back constantly and taking an 8 yard sack really hurt us when stepping up for a 5 yard run was available. 

Not just running, but Arch’s ability to move in the pocket and sense pressure, or stay in the pocket should make a difference.  He already keeps his eyes up when he scrambles, and assesses what he has downfield before taking off.  He will be a first year QB though, so he might need some time to rev up. Expectations should be managed accordingly. Also, agree with assessment a couple of posts up on TE, we have some athletic young guys that are faster and better athletes than even the last two years. Could be a surprise. 

[CHorn427]

58 minutes ago, Texasrocks said:

Florida is the only team that I'd expect to improve significantly compared to what we saw this year. Ohio State will be tough, but they lose a lot this year. Getting them early in the season is good. Georgia needs to figure out something on offense, though they seem to have Sark's number. OU, Kentucky, and Arkansas will be worse. I'd guess A&M, Vandy, and Miss St. will be about the same.

I would be shocked if OU’s offense isn’t better next year with Mateer, barring injuries. Their defense might take a step back

[CHorn427]

1 hour ago, horns96 said:

I could see LSU and Oregon being above Texas in preseason rankings.  Oregon won't miss a beat on offense with Dante Moore (unless Lanning leaves for NFL and blows up the program) and LSU has Nussmeier back.

There is no chance on God’s green earth that LSU will be ranked higher than us in preseason. Oregon maaaybe, but probably not. I believe they’re losing 9 of 11 on defense and key pieces on O.

[dfwHorn]

It’s wild to say this, but with how we have recruited over the last 3-4 years, we are in an elite space where we have to get use to losing 10+ guys to the draft every year and being able to reload and still be elite. Georgia and Alabama did it for years where they would lose a lot and still be top four teams. I think now with the transfer portal on top of our good high school recruiting we can do that. 
 

sure it creates uncertainty every year because you will always be rolling out new sets of starters in key spots, but you have to imagine the staff knows what they have to a certain extent in these backups. 
 

which can mean one of two things, we have been quieter in the portal because they are confident, or we should be concerned because we haven’t done enough in the portal in places of perceived weakness.

[HornsUpThumbsDown]

10 hours ago, Deadhead_Horn said:

"way harder" is a wild exaggeration. 

 

@ Ohio State

v. San Jose State

v. UTEP

v. Sam Houston 

@ Florida 

v. Oklahoma

@ Kentucky 

@ Mississippi State

v. Vanderbilt

@ Georgia 

v. Arkansas

v. A&M

 

....Where do you see three losses? 

At worst, they should be 10-2 with only 1 in-conference loss, which has them right back in the SEC Championship game next year. 

Ohio state, Georgia, Florida 

[alrightalrightalright]

The month of October feels like an obstacle course. Getting a win at Florida and staying healthy to kick off October will be huge for momentum to push through that month completely on the road.

Ohio State loses a ton of starters. If we win there, I can see 11-1 with a loss to Georgia. If we lose to OSU, 10-2. But that all hinges on getting through October healthy.

[CoachBobbyFinstock]

Need to wait till after the Spring to do this. The portal acquisitions will change the calculus. 
 

The bottom line is we have current holes that will need to be addressed and we’ll see how well we can do that. 

[GoHorns1]

11 hours ago, Texasrocks said:

Next year will be interesting. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, and Ole Miss will all have new QBs. I'm sure there are others. OSU, Georgia, and Penn State lose a ton of talent and experience on defense. They'll still have talented players, but less experience.  Honestly, Texas isn't losing as much as many other top teams assuming Arch is as good as everything expects. Obviously, the portal could change things quickly. As could injuries.

Texas will a new QB

[Glass Joe]

The top 4 teams at the beginning of the 2024 season were nearly unanimously agreed to be: tOSU, UGA, Texas, and Oregon.

Of those 4 teams, tOSU , UGA, and Oregon all lose WAY more off their rosters than Texas heading into the 2025 season.  It’s not even comparable.  And particularly, Ohio State loses damn near everybody that started the game on Friday night.

So, the question for me is which teams have a reservoir of returning talent / experience that will surpass Texas in 2025?

Bama?  Good grief, no.  They’ve been gutted by the portal the past two offseason, and graduation / early NFL entries (Milroe, Campbell, Booker, J.Roberts, Lawson, et al).

Michigan?  They’re about to lose 4 first rounders and haven’t been replacing these guys in recruiting.

Penn State?  Still have J.Franklin and Allar

Ole Miss?  Completely gutted after 2024

aggy? OU? USC?   LOL !!

There are 3 schools in the SEC on an upward talent trajectory relative to 2024 that should be improved on field in 2025.

1.  Florida

2.  LSU (best portal class in country plus Nuss returning and DC in year 2)

3. South Carolina

The question for Texas is do any of those 3 teams actually have enough talent, experience at key positions, and overall depth to surpass Texas in 2025?  IMO, while both SoCar and Florida have the QB piece in-place and have some solid players on both sides of the ball, they are both one-deep right now and won’t have Texas’ talent after a 14-17 game schedule.

By contrast, LSU also has the QB, WRs, RB and more talent through the entire depth chart than Florida or SoCar.  However, LSU still has huge problems in the secondary, has to replace OL, and is unproven along the DL…all of which matter in the SEC.  LSU can win offensive shootouts weekly however.

Add it all up and while we focus on Texas’ personnel losses from 2024, I can’t find any team in college football that enters 2025 with a better roster across the depth chart, and with as many of the key pieces already identified and (many of them) experienced.  QB? Arch, WR? Wingo, Moore, maybe an InPort.  OT? Goosby and possibly Big Cam.  DE? C.Simmon, Burke, possibly T.Moore.  LB? Ant Hill.  DB? Manny, Taaffe, Guilbeau, Jelani M, D.Williams.

The biggest piece for Texas is finding a decent Kicker.

Finally, keep in mind that SEC teams can’t poach InPorts from other SEC teams in the Spring (for the 2025 season).  So, all the talk of seeing Spring roster portal movement is limited to SEC teams poaching ACC, B12, FCS, and Big Ten rosters for talent.  If you assume that tOSU, Michigan, Oregon, and PSU have enough NIL to retain the players they want, is there really enough NFL caliber talent on the rosters of other Big Ten schools to be difference makers on an SEC roster?  Not really.

How much NFL caliber talent can an SEC team poach from the Big 12 or FCS?  A: very, very little (there isn’t much NFL-caliber talent in these leagues).

Which means incremental SEC roster improvement via Spring portal for 2025 will be sourced by raiding ACC rosters for talent in the Spring…except that Clemson has already protected their roster talent.  Net-net: SEC rosters for 2025 aren’t going to change too much from what they are at the end of this week (once the portal closes on CFB playoff teams).

[Deadhead_Horn]

2 hours ago, HornsUpThumbsDown said:

Ohio state, Georgia, Florida 

They aren't losing to Florida. Come on now.