Bubble watch

[bierce]

A lot of bubble teams in action tonight.

Utah beat KSU last night.  Both on life support.  Both need to  win at least 4 of last 5, get a signature win in there, and win a game in the conference tournament to have a chance.  Both have a single signature win over Kansas, but take away Kansas's November win over Duke, and it profiles like an 8/9 seed.  Since beating Duke, Kansas is 1-6 against the top 50, and two of the games were at home and one of those was against DeVries-less WVU. 

Tonight's games:

OU (52) @ Florida (4)

Porter Moser's bunch is 1-7 in q1 games in conference, the sole win being a one possession win @ bubble Arky.  This is the first of a 6 game stretch of q1 games leading into the conference tournament.  72% of bracketinkers who updated since the weekend have OU as an 11 seed.

Butler @ Xavier (53)

Xavier is the team I think is most likely to climb back into the field.  It currently has only 3 votes from the 48 bracketwits who have updated since the weekend, but it is 16-10, only 1-8 in q1 but 6-2 in q2, no bad losses unless you count a blowout in November to top 20 Michigan a bad loss, and several of the q1 losses were very close.  A chances for another q1 win if Creighton climbs back into the top 30.  But Xavier can't afford to lose games like these, even with a chance to get revenge @ Butler in two weeks.

Villanova (54) @ UConn

I just don't understand Villanova being Xavier's neighbor in NET.  Take three of Xavier's q1 losses and turn them into a q3 win and 2 q3 losses.  Take one of Xavier's q2 wins and turn it into a loss.  Take one of Xavier's q4 wins and turn it into a loss, an unbelievably hideous loss at home to 239 Columbia.  Now you have Villanova's record. 

Doesn't make much sense, does it?  Nova has one q1 game left on the schedule--@ Marquette.

Kansas @ BYU (36)

I mentioned earlier in the thread how BYU lacks signature wins.  This would sort of be one, but I'll be tempted to put Kansas on the bubble watch if it loses tonight.

Fresno State @ San Diego State (50)

Not the sort of game SDSU can afford to lose.  Fresno State is 1-14 in conference and NET 276.  Would be a horrendous q4 loss.  Would be a q4 loss heading into a game @ Utah State, and conference doormat Air Force is the only MWC team SDSU has beaten above 4000 feet in two years.  

 

 

 

 

[TTaylor2135]

Love this thread, thanks @bierce

[Gerry Hamilton]

3 minutes ago, TTaylor2135 said:

Love this thread, thanks @bierce

Ditto

[Gerry Hamilton]

BTW, if Mark Few was ever going to leave Gonzaga ... this would be the year to do it. I think he's stayed too long ... his best teams there are in the past. Too many key assistant losses and NIL impacts in future with profit sharing for power conferences 

[bierce]

7 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

BTW, if Mark Few was ever going to leave Gonzaga ... this would be the year to do it. I think he's stayed too long ... his best teams there are in the past. Too many key assistant losses and NIL impacts in future with profit sharing for power conferences 

But there are still all those fish in the streams in the Pacific Northwest.

Not happening. 

[bierce]

I should have mentioned Syracuse @ Pitt (51)

Pitt was in the Pomeroy top 15 after torching WVU, going to OT against Wiscy, and beating tOSU in November.  Then it lost by 33 @ Mississippi State, and it has never gotten well.  Hasn't beaten a tournament team since.  Split with bubble UNC, but lost to bubble SMU by 20, lost to bubble WF, and was clubbed at home by out of tournament UVa.  Very little meat left on the schedule--a q1 game @ Louisville and q2 games at Notre Dame and NC State.  Probably has to win them all at this point.

[whereiend]

I noticed that ESPN's BPI gives us a 40% chance of winning a game in the tournament. I'd think that would *probably* save RT's job for a year? If we lost first round it'd be an interesting decision for CDC, but if RT returned the excitement about the program going into next season would certainly be very low.

[Gerry Hamilton]

8 minutes ago, whereiend said:

I noticed that ESPN's BPI gives us a 40% chance of winning a game in the tournament. I'd think that would *probably* save RT's job for a year? If we lost first round it'd be an interesting decision for CDC, but if RT returned the excitement about the program going into next season would certainly be very low.

I'm not so sure. Needs to be ascending trajectory ... second weekend IMO

[bierce]

There are second round losses that are bad and there are second round losses that aren't.

Imagine Texas winds up 8/9 seed and loses in the round of 32 to Duke by 3 or 4 points.  Now imagine Texas winds up a 6/11 seed and loses to a 14 seed by double digits in the round of 32.  Or by 30 to a 3 seed.

One loss is most definitely not like the others. 

Yes, there is the issue of why we are still futzing around with a relatively poor seed, but the point is winning or losing in the round of 32 can mean a bunch of different things.  So too could winning in the round of 32.

Measuring success by how many games you survive in any one tournament is dumb.

But . . . there are cracks in the program.  There has been poor offensive execution.  There is a paucity of incoming recruits.  We already have a shortage of good P5 talent in some spots in the rotation.   Those problems don't go away if we beat a 6 seed and a 14 seed and make the Sweet Sixteen.  Or if we beat an 11 seed and a 3 seed to do it.  It should put the shame to people who say donors shouldn't waste money on Terry, but it doesn't mean they will suddenly change their attitude and flood the program with contributions or have the guys handling the NIL dollars suddenly decide to give the basketball program a lot more money to retool over the spring and summer, and this roster will need substantial retooling after it loses Johnson, Kaluma, Shedrick, Larry, Kent, and probably Mark. 

[Jordan91]

5 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

BTW, if Mark Few was ever going to leave Gonzaga ... this would be the year to do it. I think he's stayed too long ... his best teams there are in the past. Too many key assistant losses and NIL impacts in future with profit sharing for power conferences 

I feel that way about Scott Drew. 

[Jordan91]

33 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

I'm not so sure. Needs to be ascending trajectory ... second weekend IMO

OH JUST SAY IT GERRY! 

[bierce]

Villanova just met the fork.  Was up 53-39 and lost 66-59. 

[bierce]

OU getting murdered 76-49 with 5:38 to go.  Looking very much like 4 straight years without a tournament appearance for Porter Moser.

[Jordan91]

Yeah I don’t want Texas needing to win at Mississippi State. 

[bierce]

Pitt won.  Talk to me when it beats a top 100 team on the road, not when it beats a 125 or so team at home. 

[Jordan91]

BYU up on Kansas 50-29 with 18:00 left in the second half. 

[bierce]

Xavier won 76-63 to start climbing up the ranks.  I won't be surprised to see it in the matrix next week, but it will need to beat Creighton the following Saturday to stay there.

[harveycmd]

Haven't watched Kansas any this year. What's going on?

[Jordan91]

5 minutes ago, harveycmd said:

Haven't watched Kansas any this year. What's going on?

Paid a lot of money to AJ Storr and Griffin. Unfortunately both are averaging six points. They missed bad. 

[bierce]

I don't know what is wrong with Kansas, but I jokingly said I was thinking of putting it on the bubble watch if it lost tonight and it lost by 34, so I will.

KU, NET way too high, 17-9, 5-8 q1 and 3-1 q2 but just 1-7 against top 50 teams since November.  Has to win at least one of its last three games (@ Houston and home against Arizona and Tech) to keep a bid. 

OK, ok, it's still not at risk, but I can't believe it was still getting 4s from some bracketoozers. 

[harveycmd]

38 minutes ago, bierce said:

I don't know what is wrong with Kansas, but I jokingly said I was thinking of putting it on the bubble watch if it lost tonight and it lost by 34, so I will.

KU, NET way too high, 17-9, 5-8 q1 and 3-1 q2 but just 1-7 against top 50 teams since November.  Has to win at least one of its last three games (@ Houston and home against Arizona and Tech) to keep a bid. 

OK, ok, it's still not at risk, but I can't believe it was still getting 4s from some bracketoozers. 

Reputation is obviously working in KU's favor, but they're not just consistently losing, they're consistently losing big. Sooner or later that has to catch up with them.

[bierce]

SDSU won 83-60 last night in a q4 game.  Yawn.  But it goes to Utah State on Saturday and comes home to face UNM on Tuesday.  Big games.  A split would guarantee the Aztecs a bid.  Lose them both and they'll start to sweat, mainly because they'll be 0-4 against MWC 1 and 2.   I still think at that point they would profile stronger than a lot of the teams on the bubble.  The neutral site win over Houston gives them a lot of goodwill, and don't laugh when I say beating UC San Diego was a good win. 

Wednesday's games

It's Wednesday, so there are a bunch

VCU (35) hosts UMass in a q4 game.   Has to win that to keep status as a team to be considered for an at large bid.

Nebraska (46) @ PSU (80)  Nebraska losing would be like Texas losing @ South Carolina.  PSU has played most teams close at home.

Vandy (42) @ Kentucky  I'm guessing someone is looking for major revenge, but Kentucky will be without Butler, Robinson, and Kriisa.

Cincy (45) @ WVU (44)  Consider it an elimination game.  Cincy because it is on the outside and has few chances left to make a statement  (home against Baylor, @ Hou and good luck with the last one).  WVU because it is trending way, way wrong and follows this game by going to Tech and then on to Provo to face a hot BYU team.

SMU (40) @ Notre Dame (out of contention, but the coach knows how to make microphones suffer) SMU can't lose this, but a win won't help it.  Only beating Clemson this weekend can help.

NC State @ UNC (50)  UNC is nearly dead in the water.  1-10 q1, 5-0 q2, a q3 loss at home to Stanford.  Can't lose this.  Only 1 q1 game left, hosting Duke in season finale.  Only 1 q2 game left, visiting UVa.  Everything else is q3 (or q4 like hosting Miami).

Oregon @ Iowa  One team has to pretty much lose out to miss the tournament, and the other has to pretty much win out to get in.  I think you can figure out which is which.

Arky (43) @ Auburn (overall 1 seed)  Arky might have to wait to the home stand against Missouri and Texas to solidify its position in the field.  Also will have a game @ Vandy and host MSU to end the season, so it can still move up.  

San Jose State @ Utah State (38)  Since Tim Miles arrived at SJSU for the 2021-22 season, it has won one game over 4000 feet in conference against a team not named Air Force.  USU will next host SDSU before traveling to Boise State and Colorado State to try to cement second place in the conference and a tournament bid.  It should be safe right now.  It won @ St. Mary's and picked up 3 q2 wins on neutral floors in November.

UNM (37) @ Boise State (47)  UNM is 3-1 q1 and 8-1 q2.  It does have the barely q3 loss @ SJSU and the barely q4 OT loss at home to NMSU, but it should be safe at this point barring a complete collapse, thanks to neutral site wins over UCLA and USC and a home 14 win over VCU.  Of coures, UNM does have the advantage of playing at altitude.  The fact that the playing surface at The Pit is 37 feet below street level doesn't do anything to offset the fact Albuquerque sits slightly higher than Denver.  Boise State is in trouble.  It is 0-5 so far against the other top teams in the MWC, so it needs a home win or two here or against Colorado State and SDSU.  It probably needs to win all three because losses to BC and in its own home town to Wazzu are pretty bad.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bierce]

Nebraska is down 50-27 at the half.  It came back from down 18 in the second half against Northwestern, but this is playing with fire.  Penn State has only once been outscored by more than 10 at home this year, and that was when was missing its starting center and was outscored by 12 by Minnesota.  Niederhauser is not only around today; he has 15 points so far. 

[bierce]

Nebraska lost by 17.  Back to the 11 line for them.

Cincy nearly had a miracle finish, hitting a three with 8 seconds to go, getting a steal, hitting a 3 with 5 seconds to go, then getting WVU to fumble the inbounds pass (with considerable help but apparently not enough visual evidence to overturn the call on the floor), but it missed an open three off the front of the rim.  62-59 WVU final.  TV announcers called it a q1 win for WVU.  Yeah, not.  Game was in Morgantown. 

[bierce]

Vandy lost to Kentucky 82-61.  At risk of falling out of the tournament at this point.  Tough schedule left with 3 games against ranked teams.  3 of the 5 remaining games are at home, and Vandy is 4-2 at home in conference, so there is hope, but it is 1-6 on the road in conference with the only win being over LSU.