John Mateer Deep Dive Stats (My Gift to CJ Vogel)

[thatdude2]

It may feel like the 2025 football season cannot get here fast enough, and most of us are ready to see these Longhorn in action. Honestly, everybody is waiting to see Arch in action followed by a talented team of future pros lined up all over the field. 

There are others that zig when everyone else's zag. As the Arch hype continues to ratchet up, CJ has decided to bang the drum for Mateer. The tingle in his eye when he was interviewing Mateer at the Manning Passing Academy, to the softness in his voice when he speaks about the possibilities that Mateer could unleash a can of (you know what) on the SEC not seen since Cam Newton left Blinn College. The hater in me had to do a deep dive to see if Mateer was being overhyped by CJ, OU pundits, and some national media guys.

First I seperated Mateer stats against the 7 teams he faced that won 5 games or fewer (winning percentage for the 7 teams .337) (record against 4 - 3)

Passing:  129/176  73%  1,890 yards  21 TDs  1 INTs

Rushing: 85 rushes  382 yards  4.5 yards per carry  10 TDs

Here are Mateers stats against the 5 teams he faced that won 6 games or more (winning percentage for the 5 teams (.591) (record against 4 - 1)

Passing: 95/171  56%  1,249  yards  8 TDs  6 INTs

Rushing: 93 rushes  460 yards  4.9  yards per carry  5 TDs

Splitting that up into the average per game stats against teams projected to win less than 6 games (3) and over 6 games (9) on OU's 2025 schedule, Mateer's stats would be:

Passing: 225/381  59%  3,058 yards  24 TDs  12 INTs

Rushing: 204 carries  992 yards  13 TDs

I also took his overall numbers from Washington State- (2024 season), and applied the rushing decreases and passing increases that Cam Ward experience the year before when he went from Washington State to Miami. The caveat is Mateer's OC and QB coach were hired by OU (I'm intrigued to see how much of a rushing load is placed on a Mateer). If Mateer follows the same trajectory that Cam Ward did when surrounded by better talent, Mateer's 2025 stats would be:

Passing: 230/352  65.2%  3,453 yards  41 TDs  7 INTs

Rushing: 89 carries  413 yards  8 TDs

 

To the legend CJ Vogel, smile proudly

[CJ Vogel]

Well done @thatdude2 haha.

I think Mateer is a good football player. He is a gamer, games are great in college football. 

FWIW, I bet Mateer's rushing numbers don't drop too much. OU will need to take any and all offense they can get in 2025 and cutting off a source of great production is something that would be a huge mistake imo

[thatdude2]

39 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Well done @thatdude2 haha.

I think Mateer is a good football player. He is a gamer, games are great in college football. 

FWIW, I bet Mateer's rushing numbers don't drop too much. OU will need to take any and all offense they can get in 2025 and cutting off a source of great production is something that would be a huge mistake imo

Thanks for the response CJ. Interested to see if how he holds up if he has to run. 

[CJ Vogel]

Just now, thatdude2 said:

Thanks for the response CJ. Interested to see if how he holds up if he has to run. 

I was in a conversation earlier today with a buddy about Mateer and his legs. 

He was three yards shy of reaching 200 yards against Texas Tech in a 21 point win last year. He can scoot lol, also speaks on the TTU defense.

[thatdude2]

6 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

I was in a conversation earlier today with a buddy about Mateer and his legs. 

He was three yards shy of reaching 200 yards against Texas Tech in a 21 point win last year. He can scoot lol, also speaks on the TTU defense.

Yea, Boise State (38) was the best defense they faced from a defensive efficiency standpoint. They faced a lot of poor defenses last season. I think Ott, Burkes, and Javonnie Gibson have to be big for them to have passing success. His passing stats against good teams was scary, but they won their games against those teams.

[Q]

10 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

I was in a conversation earlier today with a buddy about Mateer and his legs. 

He was three yards shy of reaching 200 yards against Texas Tech in a 21 point win last year. He can scoot lol, also speaks on the TTU defense.

If they run him like that against their schedule, I'm not sure he makes it the whole year. I don't think he is Pavia, that dude is built different. 

[thatdude2]

8 hours ago, Q said:

If they run him like that against their schedule, I'm not sure he makes it the whole year. I don't think he is Pavia, that dude is built different. 

Honestly, he might be a better Pavia. I think the difference between OU and Vandy are night and day. If Vandy goes 8 - 4, they might build a statue of Pavia and their coach gets an extension. If OU goes 8 - 4 (with a loss to Texas), Mateer is most likely a disappointment and BV is possibly gone.