OTF Premium Examining the Citrus Bowl QB battle between Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood

Wednesday’s Citrus Bowl pits two of the most highly-touted quarterback prospects in the history of modern recruiting against each other when Arch Manning and Bryce Underwood lead their respective teams into battle for the last time in 2025.

Manning, who will make his 15th career start for Texas, is the eighth-highest rated quarterback prospect in the history of the 247Sports Composite, slightly behind Terrelle Pryor and just ahead of Matt Barkley. Ryan Mallett is the only quarterback to ever sign with Michigan rated higher than Underwood (No. 22 all-time in the 247Sports Composite quarterback rankings), who will start for the 13th and final time as a true freshman.

That’s where the similarities end between two former prized quarterback recruits at different stages of their respective careers.

Against a Wolverine defense that ranks 16th nationally in points per game allowed (18.7), 18th in yards per play allowed (4.77) and 22nd in yards per game allowed (312.3), Manning will look to continue the success he’s enjoyed against the Longhorns’ ranked opponents in 2025. Even though he struggled in a season-opening loss to Ohio State, Manning completed 64.2 percent of his passes (104 for 162) against the Buckeyes, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, throwing for 1,094 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions.

Manning’s 112 net rushing yards in those games include a 36-yard game-clinching touchdown run against the Aggies. According to Pro Football Focus, Manning was pressured on 97 dropbacks, but his pocket presence and athleticism minimized the damage to the tune of just total sacks for five ranked foes.

Wink Martindale, a defensive coordinator known for the variety and volume of pressure looks he’ll throw at opposing quarterbacks, will have to blitz Manning at his own risk. On the 184 dropbacks in which Manning has been blitzed through 12 games, according to PFF, he’s completed more than 57 percent of his passes (96 for 166) for 1,419 yards and 12 touchdowns, throwing just two interceptions with 81 pressures via the blitz leading to only 11 sacks.

On the other hand, Underwood’s two games against ranked opponents (a 24-13 loss to Oklahoma in his first start on the road and a 27-9 loss to Ohio State at home in the regular season finale) yielded unsavory results. In Michigan's losses to the Sooners and Buckeyes, Underwood went 17-for-42 through the air (40.5 percent completion rate) for 205 yards (4.9 yards per attempt and 12.1 yards per completion) with no touchdown passes and one interception.

Like most inexperienced quarterbacks, Underwood is still learning how to deal with pressure. According to PFF, Underwood is 28-for-61 on the 29.7 percent of his dropbacks in which he’s faced pressure, with 362 yards, one touchdown and one interception, numbers that have contributed to an NFL passer rating of 63.7.

Martindale and the Wolverines will play the game without three defensive captains (EDGE Derrick Moore and linebackers Jaishawn Barham and Ernest Hausmann). The Longhorns have turned defensive play-calling duties over to Johnny Nansen, who’s left to adjust to the fallout of seven postseason opt-outs.

Still, the objective for both coordinators on Wednesday should be to win the race to make the game one in which the opponent has to drop back and throw the football to survive.

A Texas offensive line operating at full strength must keep Manning clean and pave the way for the Longhorns to run the ball well enough to achieve a must-have semblance of balance. The Longhorns surrendered just three sacks in their three regular-season wins over Associated Press top-10 opponents, victories over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in which Texas averaged 155.3 rushing yards per game (4.68 yards per attempt).

Ty’Anthony Smith and Brad Spence will lead an inexperienced group of Texas linebackers against a Michigan rushing attack that’s one of the best in the country (213.2 yards per game and 5.51 yards per attempt are top-15 marks in FBS). Slowing down the Wolverines’ rushing attack isn’t an insurmountable task, however, with Michigan set to take the field without running back Justice Haynes (857 yards rushing, 7.1 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns), All-Big Ten tight end/H-back/fullback/lead blocker Max Bredeson and All-Big Ten left guard Gio El-Hadi (it also remains to be seen where leading rusher Jordan Marshall is in his recovery from a late-season shoulder injury).

Opt-outs and coaching changes add significant unknown variables when trying to predict the winner of a postseason exhibition between two of the five winningest programs in FBS history. The outcome will likely be decided by either the Wolverines slowing down Manning’s ascent toward his ceiling or the Longhorns doing their part to put Underwood’s coming-of-age moment as a college quarterback off until 2026.