The Hit Rate of Texas Recruiting Classes

6 minutes ago, CJ Vogel said:

Surprising how much talent those 2015 and 2016 classes brought in despite the results on the field. 

They’re why they won the Sugar Bowl.

But the inconsistency in recruiting didn’t allow them to sustain success. That’s why stacking recruiting classes is so important. 

Awesome analysis.  Thanks Bobby.

If Sark keeps it going (& I think he will), the Burnt Orange Era of college football is imminent.

@Bobby Burton

Good article. 

To make things worse were the lack of impact quarterbacks on the roster during the past 15 years before Ewers and Arch.

27 minutes ago, marathon said:

@Bobby Burton

Good article. 

To make things worse were the lack of impact quarterbacks on the roster during the past 15 years before Ewers and Arch.

I did not do a position analysis, which probably would have been useful, too.

QBs a clear issue. Only Sam made it to the league.

I posted a thread of a similar nature on Surly. Link below, for anyone that doesn't go there normally but had an interest in adjacent content for this subject matter. If cusswords bother you, or if you're a big fan of Tom Herman, don't click. 

Anyway, good post, Bobby, but you're too gentlemanly in your review of that class. It's a staggeringly bad class. I realize that Owens and McCoy may make an NFL roster, but they did nothing at Texas and Owens is just a general nothing overall. 

To me, the two big issues for that class were as follows:

1) They lost 5 guys before the fall began. McCoy, Floyd, Caleb Johnson, Mpagi, and DBrown. Three of those went down to career-ending injuries before playing (Floyd obviously got approved years later to play elsewhere). They ran Johnson off before the spring ended. McCoy, well, he behaved like a child during that period. But 5 out of 24 is 21% of your class vanishing into thin air before school started. That's brutal.

2) The evaluations basically completely failed at the top, both by the services and staff. Owens, Smith, Liebrock, and Watson were all national top 150/175 guys. They were all failures. Owens failed at Tech too. The NFL has him at the combine due to his measurables, a siren song of his for all evaluators. Add these whiffs with the McCoy BS and Floyd's situation and it's a decapitation of the class at the top in a spectacular way. 

Anyway, here's the aforementioned link: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/33867-one-class-can-kill-you-reviewing-the-texas-2019-class/#comments

Excellent post. Now DM this to Ari Wasserman's dumb ass. 

Great post, I've been thinking about what's an appropriate benchmark for knowing Texas is back in terms of elite talent development. Looks like the 25-35% NFL hit rate is the number to target and monitor.

Similarly, I also looked at the records of all other in-state major college football programs in that same 2011-2020 year time frame vs. # of NFL draft picks (only including players drafted, not un-drafted free agent signings). 

Takeaway: While Texas had more NFL picks than any other Texas college football program in those 10 years (despite being "down" overall as a program), this did not translate into a better on field product, with Texas having the second lowest win % during that time. Unsurprisingly, the moniker of "UT can't develop talent" was proven to be correct during this dark period of Texas football.

49 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I posted a thread of a similar nature on Surly. Link below, for anyone that doesn't go there normally but had an interest in adjacent content for this subject matter. If cusswords bother you, or if you're a big fan of Tom Herman, don't click. 

Anyway, good post, Bobby, but you're too gentlemanly in your review of that class. It's a staggeringly bad class. I realize that Owens and McCoy may make an NFL roster, but they did nothing at Texas and Owens is just a general nothing overall. 

To me, the two big issues for that class were as follows:

1) They lost 5 guys before the fall began. McCoy, Floyd, Caleb Johnson, Mpagi, and DBrown. Three of those went down to career-ending injuries before playing (Floyd obviously got approved years later to play elsewhere). They ran Johnson off before the spring ended. McCoy, well, he behaved like a child during that period. But 5 out of 24 is 21% of your class vanishing into thin air before school started. That's brutal.

2) The evaluations basically completely failed at the top, both by the services and staff. Owens, Smith, Liebrock, and Watson were all national top 150/175 guys. They were all failures. Owens failed at Tech too. The NFL has him at the combine due to his measurables, a siren song of his for all evaluators. Add these whiffs with the McCoy BS and Floyd's situation and it's a decapitation of the class at the top in a spectacular way. 

Anyway, here's the aforementioned link: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/33867-one-class-can-kill-you-reviewing-the-texas-2019-class/#comments

Great discussion. Thanks for posting.

The bigger idea to me here is the necessity and value of stringing recruiting classes together. Even a one-year hiccup can be devastating to consistency.

If you want to be a consistently elite program, you have to be a great recruiting  program every year.

--

And that's not to mention whatever it is that the finals years of Mack Brown tells us.

Position Breakdown:

Quarterbacks (5) - Sam Ehlinger, Shane Buechele (transfer), Ja'Quinden Jackson (transfer, moved to RB), Cam Rising (transfer), R Johnson (position change)

Running backs (4) - Brown, Foreman, Ingram, Robinson

Receivers (8) - Humphrey, Duvernay, C Johnson, M Johnson, Whittington, Meander (transfer, moved to LB), McCoy (transfer), Black

Tight end (3) - Swaim, Beck, Wiley (transfer)

Offensive line (7) - Cosmi, Perkins, Harrison (transfer), Jones, Majors, Williams, Hawkins

Defensive end (4) - Ossai, Omenihu, Roach, Roberson (transfer)

Defensive tackle (9) - Ford, Brown, Ridgeway, Sweat, Elliott (transfer), Graham, Collins, Coburn, Ojomo

Linebacker (3) - Jefferson, Overshown, Ford

Cornerback (4) - Hill, Boyd, Thomas, Jamison

Safety (12) - Diggs, M Thompson, Jones, Locke, Sterns, J Thompson, Elliott, Barron, Schooler, Colbert (transfer), Green (transfer), Owens (transfer)

Punter (1) - Michael Dickson

Kicker (1) - Cameron Dicker

Notes:

- Only 7 OLs compasred to 13 DLs.

- Look at the staggering discrepancy between corner and safety.

- Only 1 QB stayed at QB; RoJo moved to RB obviously but wasn't recruited as such.

- In a 10-year run, the highest drafted receiver for the Horns came at no. 92 overall. Texas should have two WRs gone before that in this upcoming draft.

- Texas signed NFL TEs in back-to-back years and then not another one for five years.

- Hard to believe Texas produced only five NFL RBs in that decade and one of them was a converted QB.

Thanks Bobby! It would be interesting to see the teams record with each year compared to the results recruiting class. 

43 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

The bigger idea to me here is the necessity and value of stringing recruiting classes together. Even a one-year hiccup can be devastating to consistency.

We’re seeing that in the DL. Bo Davis didn’t sign the numbers necessary or the high end elite talent. If you evaluate well you can get by with developing players as long as the pipeline is full.

Signing only Sydir Mitchell in the 2023 class on the DL was borderline insane. And to follow that up with only 2 DT in 2024 puts you at a disadvantage headed into the SEC. 

Praying for a difference maker at DT from the portal is not a strategy you want to rely on.

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I posted a thread of a similar nature on Surly. Link below, for anyone that doesn't go there normally but had an interest in adjacent content for this subject matter. If cusswords bother you, or if you're a big fan of Tom Herman, don't click. 

Anyway, good post, Bobby, but you're too gentlemanly in your review of that class. It's a staggeringly bad class. I realize that Owens and McCoy may make an NFL roster, but they did nothing at Texas and Owens is just a general nothing overall. 

To me, the two big issues for that class were as follows:

1) They lost 5 guys before the fall began. McCoy, Floyd, Caleb Johnson, Mpagi, and DBrown. Three of those went down to career-ending injuries before playing (Floyd obviously got approved years later to play elsewhere). They ran Johnson off before the spring ended. McCoy, well, he behaved like a child during that period. But 5 out of 24 is 21% of your class vanishing into thin air before school started. That's brutal.

2) The evaluations basically completely failed at the top, both by the services and staff. Owens, Smith, Liebrock, and Watson were all national top 150/175 guys. They were all failures. Owens failed at Tech too. The NFL has him at the combine due to his measurables, a siren song of his for all evaluators. Add these whiffs with the McCoy BS and Floyd's situation and it's a decapitation of the class at the top in a spectacular way. 

Anyway, here's the aforementioned link: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/33867-one-class-can-kill-you-reviewing-the-texas-2019-class/#comments

To truly appreciate the disaster that was the 2019 class you need a full look at it.. 

Listed in order of highest rated to lowest

Bru - transfer

Owens - transfer

JWhitt

Floyd- medical

Smith- transfer

Johnson- transfer

Warren- transfer

Adimora- transfer

Gbenda

Liebrock- transfer

Washington - transfer

Shepard- transfer

Brown- medical

Rojo 

Sweat

Mpagi - medical

JOnes 

Lewis - transfer

Caldwell- transfer

Wiley- transfer

Tyler- transfer

Mitchell- transfer

Hopefully my memory was correct on that, but lets forget about development and just look at retention.  78.2% of the class transferred or had medical issues. It one thing to miss on guys that become program players (back-ups and special teams), it is another to see almost 80% just walk out the door

9 minutes ago, marathon said:

We’re seeing that in the DL. Bo Davis didn’t sign the numbers necessary or the high end elite talent. If you evaluate well you can get by with developing players as long as the pipeline is full.

Signing only Sydir Mitchell in the 2023 class on the DL was borderline insane. And to follow that up with only 2 DT in 2024 puts you at a disadvantage headed into the SEC. 

Praying for a difference maker at DT from the portal is not a strategy you want to rely on.

Did Bo recruit any of those players? 

1 minute ago, codaxx said:

Did Bo recruit any of those players? 

If you are talking about Sydir Mitchell, January and Melvin Hills (who hopefully enrolls in June) I am not sure but I was giving Bo the benefit of the doubt….although I suspect Kyle Flood was heavily involved in the Mitchell recruitment.

1 minute ago, marathon said:

If you are talking about Sydir Mitchell, January and Melvin Hills (who hopefully enrolls in June) I am not sure but I was giving Bo the benefit of the doubt….although I suspect Kyle Flood was heavily involved in the Mitchell recruitment.

I meant the DL that were in the post from Bobby

Defensive tackle (9) - Ford, Brown, Ridgeway, Sweat, Elliott (transfer), Graham, Collins, Coburn, Ojomo

8 minutes ago, codaxx said:

I meant the DL that were in the post from Bobby

 

Defensive tackle (9) - Ford, Brown, Ridgeway, Sweat, Elliott (transfer), Graham, Collins, Coburn, Ojomo

Pretty sure he was not responsible for those. Davis was at UT from 2011-2013 before returning in 2021.

I believe Malcom Brown and Ridgeway were the only 2 from that timeframe but their recruiting profiles don’t list Davis as their recruiter. Assuming it’s accurate it shows Oscar Giles recruited Brown and Bruce Chambers recruited Ridgeway.

1 hour ago, codaxx said:

To truly appreciate the disaster that was the 2019 class you need a full look at it.. 

Listed in order of highest rated to lowest

Bru - transfer

Owens - transfer

JWhitt

Floyd- medical

Smith- transfer

Johnson- transfer

Warren- transfer

Adimora- transfer

Gbenda

Liebrock- transfer

Washington - transfer

Shepard- transfer

Brown- medical

Rojo 

Sweat

Mpagi - medical

JOnes 

Lewis - transfer

Caldwell- transfer

Wiley- transfer

Tyler- transfer

Mitchell- transfer

Hopefully my memory was correct on that, but lets forget about development and just look at retention.  78.2% of the class transferred or had medical issues. It one thing to miss on guys that become program players (back-ups and special teams), it is another to see almost 80% just walk out the door

 

 

Just brutal.

Jeebus... this is depressing to remember.  Well, here's to hope.  In Sark we trust!

@Bobby Burton You have Bru McCoy listed as an NFL player, he’s still playing college ball at Tennesee

29 minutes ago, Wildewon said:

@Bobby Burton You have Bru McCoy listed as an NFL player, he’s still playing college ball at Tennesee

Cam Rising is still playing college ball too

3 hours ago, Wildewon said:

@Bobby Burton You have Bru McCoy listed as an NFL player, he’s still playing college ball at Tennesee

Yes, they are anticipated to play pro ball. McCoy is in this year's draft and expected to be a top 200 pick.

49 minutes ago, Bobby Burton said:

Yes, they are anticipated to play pro ball. McCoy is in this year's draft and expected to be a top 200 pick.

No, he didn't declare, he’s playing at Tennessee in 2024.  

i guess it doesn't really matter either way, just seemed odd with this verbage

“To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into”

6 hours ago, Lam Dinh said:

Great post, I've been thinking about what's an appropriate benchmark for knowing Texas is back in terms of elite talent development. Looks like the 25-35% NFL hit rate is the number to target and monitor.

Similarly, I also looked at the records of all other in-state major college football programs in that same 2011-2020 year time frame vs. # of NFL draft picks (only including players drafted, not un-drafted free agent signings). 

Takeaway: While Texas had more NFL picks than any other Texas college football program in those 10 years (despite being "down" overall as a program), this did not translate into a better on field product, with Texas having the second lowest win % during that time. Unsurprisingly, the moniker of "UT can't develop talent" was proven to be correct during this dark period of Texas football.

2011-2020	Wins	Losses	Win %	NFL Picks
Texas Tech	56	66	46%	27
Texas	70	59	54%	41
Baylor	78	48	62%	25
Houston	78	46	63%	17
TCU	80	46	63%	30
A&M	84	43	66%	31

This is great stuff thank you

8 hours ago, Wildewon said:

No, he didn't declare, he’s playing at Tennessee in 2024.  

i guess it doesn't really matter either way, just seemed odd with this verbage

“To remove any ambiguity, I developed this retrospective solely on players who played in the NFL (does not include taxi/practice squad) and take into”

Fair 

There’s some guesswork left in the 2018, 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes because they have not all completely exhausted their eligibility.