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  • What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament after win at Texas Tech?

    Gerry Hamilton

    By Gerry Hamilton

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    What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

    The Texas Longhorns once again ripped out the hearts of a moblike Texas Tech fan base Tuesday night. The Longhorns responded from one rough day at Kansas with an 81-69 win at Texas Tech Tuesday night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. 

    Texas (18-10, 7-8) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, and is firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night.  

    OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to continue to be comfortably in the tourney.

    Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
    3/2 Oklahoma State 
    3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
    3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

    NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 28)
    Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET after the win at Texas Tech. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40.

    The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 2-1 vs. Quad 3 and 9-0 vs. Quad 4. 

    Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
    No. 14 @ Baylor 

    Quad 2 game remaining:
    No. 40 Oklahoma 

    Quad 3 games remaining:
    No. 113 Oklahoma State 

    T-Rank 
    Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings after Tuesday night.

    2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
    Texas checks in at No. 28 after the win at Texas Tech.

    What it means for Texas

    The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday nights win. The resume continues to be aided by five Quad 1 wins and four Big 12 road wins. Only 14 teams in all of college basketball have more Quad 1 wins than Texas, and one of those is not in a Power 5 conference. 

    While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 25 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked in the 17-20 area. Texas' Big 12 schedule will carry a lot of weight when it comes to getting in the tournament, and seeding. 

    Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. There currently nine Big 12 teams projected to get in the Big Dance.

    Texas and seeding:

    Scenario 1: 20-11, 9-9 is likely a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

    Scenario 2: 19-12, 8-10 would likely be a 8-9 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

    Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. That would mean an 0-3 finish to the regular season, which is highly unlikely. 

    Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10 and 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning the last four games (Texas Tech starting the streak), including at Baylor on Monday.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. The Longhorns haven't won three Big 12 games in a row this season. 

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    Brock Cunningham .. tip of the hat. That guy is an ultimate competitor. The play was worthy of the result, but college teams absolutely need a player with what he brings to toughness/leadership and impact winning. 

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    If I could bottle up Chendall Weaver's energy, all out effort, competitive drive, etc... and put it in every heart and mind of every athlete ...Texas would very rarely lose a game in any sport. 

    He's got the same Sir'Jabari Rice and Roschon Johnson make up, with a different skill set. 

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    Orngblud05

    I haven’t seen every game but last night was the most energy, the most focused I’ve seen all year.  There usually are defensive breakdowns, uncontested easy looks, stagnant offense, etc.  last night was mostly the opposite.   They actually looked like a good team. 

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    SkiBreck

    Bobby wasn’t lying….bring your helmet if you are going to the Tech game.  He was spot on in what to expect from those sandaggs, and they didn’t disappoint.  Smell ya later hater, enjoy the stockyards of Lubbock

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    Red Five

    I'm still on the fence about that ejection. But it was worth it for the resulting clown show we got. Any time the opposing coach has to get on the mic, that's fun. 

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    Orngblud05
    13 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    I'm still on the fence about that ejection. But it was worth it for the resulting clown show we got. Any time the opposing coach has to get on the mic, that's fun. 

    Don’t know that the punishment fits the crime but when applying letter of the law, I think they got it right.  Brock clearly alters his original path and checks him pretty good. Had they just run in to each other, I’d agree. 

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    Longhornfocus
    2 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    If I could bottle up Chendall Weaver's energy, all out effort, competitive drive, etc... and put it in every heart and mind of every athlete ...Texas would very rarely lose a game in any sport. 

    He's got the same Sir'Jabari Rice and Roschon Johnson make up, with a different skill set. 

    Props to you for nailing that eval/comp from the beginning. He’s been a revelation for the Texas defense, who needed a guy like him to step up

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    25 minutes ago, Thailand T Sip said:

    Hey Gerry, what about 21-10?

    Texas hasn't won more than two Big 12 games in a row this season. I would put the chances of winning four in a row to end the regular season at 10-15%. 

    Maybe I'll be proven wrong!

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    20 minutes ago, Longhornfocus said:

    Props to you for nailing that eval/comp from the beginning. He’s been a revelation for the Texas defense, who needed a guy like him to step up

    One freaking DI offer coming out of high school. And he played on one of the best teams in Texas that went to the 5A State title game. Just dumb. 

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    Assistant Regional Manager

    Considering a 7-11 Big 12 team has made the tournament each of the last two years, I think last night pretty much locked up a spot. Not like the bubble is full of good times anyway, and certainly not ones with 4 road Q1 wins.

    The committee has shown in previous years they don't weight performances in the conference tournament super heavily, so we definitely need to go 2-1 down the stretch here to avoid a 8/9 matchup.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    2 minutes ago, Assistant Regional Manager said:

    Considering a 7-11 Big 12 team has made the tournament each of the last two years, I think last night pretty much locked up a spot. Not like the bubble is full of good times anyway, and certainly not ones with 4 road Q1 wins.

    The committee has shown in previous years they don't weight performances in the conference tournament super heavily, so we definitely need to go 2-1 down the stretch here to avoid a 8/9 matchup.

    I'm not there if Texas finishes 7-11. That means they lost to Oklahoma State and OU at home to end regular season. That dog won't hunt IMO. 

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    HookemHorns

    That was as satisfying a win as I’ve experienced in awhile. Hat tip to RT, he course corrected and got the team ready for that one. Need that same energy every night, as hard as that is. 
     

    I love following the bubble and agree with your assessment. First priority of course is to make the tourney. But I’d really like to avoid the 8/9 seed line. One win would be tough, but if we did win that’d likely have us playing Purdue or Arizona second round. Both those teams choke consistently but still…

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    1 minute ago, HookemHorns said:

    That was as satisfying a win as I’ve experienced in awhile. Hat tip to RT, he course corrected and got the team ready for that one. Need that same energy every night, as hard as that is. 
     

    I love following the bubble and agree with your assessment. First priority of course is to make the tourney. But I’d really like to avoid the 8/9 seed line. One win would be tough, but if we did win that’d likely have us playing Purdue or Arizona second round. Both those teams choke consistently but still…

    I would love to end Zach Edey's college career. He's been one of the most over hyped college players I have seen. 

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