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What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament?

By Gerry Hamilton

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What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

The Texas Longhorns will travel to Houston today to take on the No. 3 Cougars at noon Saturday on CBS. 

Texas (16-8, 5-6) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, but still has work in front of them to punch the ticket. 

OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to be comfortably in the tourney.

Texas’ Remaining Schedule
2/17 @ No. 3 Houston
2/19 Kansas State
2/24 @ No. 6 Kansas 
2/27 @ Texas Tech
3/2 Oklahoma State 
3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 15)
Texas is No. 31 in NCAA NET headed into Saturday’s games. 

The Longhorns are 4-6 in Quad 1 games, 1-1 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. 

Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
No. 1 @ Houston
No. 17 @ Kansas
No. 26 @ Texas Tech 
No. 12 @ Baylor 

Quad 2 game remaining:
No. 33 Oklahoma 

Quad 3 games remaining:
No. 77 Kansas State
No. 137 Oklahoma State 

T-Rank 
Texas is No. 22 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Saturday. 

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
Texas checks in at No. 25 headed into college games this weekend. 

What it means for Texas

The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament headed into the weekend. That resume is aided by Quad 1 wins at Oklahoma, and over Baylor and TCU in Big 12 play. 

While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 30 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked from 20-30 area. 

Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. 

Sitting at 5-6 with four Quad 1 road games remaining, 8-10 may be the best case scenario. 

Texas and seeding:

Scenario 1: 19-12, 8-10 is likely a 9-10 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

Scenario 2: 20-11, 9-9 would likely be a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would likely send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. 

Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10, 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning five of last seven vs. a very difficult closing stretch of the schedule.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches.

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    Junior

    Pocono longhorn

    Supporters

    They sure do miss Sir Jabari or a player like him.

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    • Sophomore

    goathumper

    Members

    Winning the rest of the home games would be great

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    • Sophomore

    goathumper

    Members
    12 minutes ago, Pocono longhorn said:

    They sure do miss Sir Jabari or a player like him.

     

    If Tyrese Hunter were a good player, this team would be a lot different

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    • Redshirt

    hookem1

    Members

    One thing I think it’s important to remember is what transpired with the late attrition of the 2023 recruiting class. This year’s roster looks A LOT different with Holland and Johnson. I think Terry did an okay job piecing the roster together this year but it’s hard with the timing of when the coaching turnover and decommits happened. 

     

    Looking at the 2024 class, I think the future classes will set up our team much better in the future. 

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    1 hour ago, hookem1 said:

    One thing I think it’s important to remember is what transpired with the late attrition of the 2023 recruiting class. This year’s roster looks A LOT different with Holland and Johnson. I think Terry did an okay job piecing the roster together this year but it’s hard with the timing of when the coaching turnover and decommits happened. 

     

    Looking at the 2024 class, I think the future classes will set up our team much better in the future. 

    I do like the 2024 class, especially at guard. Tre Johnson (6-6) and Cam Scott (6-5) bring size and individual shot making wither perimeter skill. Devon Pryor (6-7) sophomore at wing, Weaver returns ... that ideal off ball skill and size. Chris Johnson also a 6-4 combo guard.

    PG in portal is possibile. 

    If Texas could win out for 6-11 Ulrich Chomche (if he doesn't go to NBA), that would be huge. 

    That's three future first round picks in 2024 class. 

    Rugged, but skilled enough big in portal for sure. Maybe two. 

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    • All-Conference

    Jerry K

    Supporters

    I think K State and OSU are must win games. They lose either one of those and it’s a bad resume hit. 

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    • Freshman

    Hermanator

    Members

    Been a disappointing season. If they don't make the tournament or barely sneak in and get bounced in the first round, I think Rodney Terry should get only one more season to get it right. This is a whole new era of big time college ball, and with the sheer amount of talent the state of Texas produces combined with the portal and NIL there's no excuse for this program to miss the tournament or barely squeak in. 

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    51 minutes ago, Jerry K said:

    I think K State and OSU are must win games. They lose either one of those and it’s a bad resume hit. 

    OSU is a must win. Can't lose that one. Need to win all three home games. 

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    23 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

    Been a disappointing season. If they don't make the tournament or barely sneak in and get bounced in the first round, I think Rodney Terry should get only one more season to get it right. This is a whole new era of big time college ball, and with the sheer amount of talent the state of Texas produces combined with the portal and NIL there's no excuse for this program to miss the tournament or barely squeak in. 

    Year two will tell the story. 

    Problem for Texas basketball is they have had too much coaching turnover in a short amount of time. Beard comes in, and they have Brock Cunningham and have to build a team. Get into tournament, win one game. Beard on track, but then we all know what happened.

    RT gets job, and essentially has Brock Cunningham and injured Dylan Disu for sure coming back and has to build team. Texas needs to get in the tournament this year, and build more in year two. 

    Texas needs some stability to have shot to build, but RT and staff have to win enough to create it. 

    I'm in no way saying RT/Texas is in a position similar to UConn ... but they gave Danny Hurley time to build something and create some stability. He went 16-17 and 19-12 and no NCAA Tourney. Then lost in Round of 64 next two years before the obvious breakthrough. 

    Texas isn't a blue blood basketball program, and the University certainly doesn't approach basketball like they want to be a blue blood. But they have enough with Moody and NIL to compete. 

     

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