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  • What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament?

    Gerry Hamilton

    By Gerry Hamilton

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    What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

    The Texas Longhorns will travel to Houston today to take on the No. 3 Cougars at noon Saturday on CBS. 

    Texas (16-8, 5-6) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, but still has work in front of them to punch the ticket. 

    OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to be comfortably in the tourney.

    Texas’ Remaining Schedule
    2/17 @ No. 3 Houston
    2/19 Kansas State
    2/24 @ No. 6 Kansas 
    2/27 @ Texas Tech
    3/2 Oklahoma State 
    3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
    3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

    NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 15)
    Texas is No. 31 in NCAA NET headed into Saturday’s games. 

    The Longhorns are 4-6 in Quad 1 games, 1-1 vs. Quad 2, 3-1 vs. Quad 3 and 8-0 vs. Quad 4. 

    Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
    No. 1 @ Houston
    No. 17 @ Kansas
    No. 26 @ Texas Tech 
    No. 12 @ Baylor 

    Quad 2 game remaining:
    No. 33 Oklahoma 

    Quad 3 games remaining:
    No. 77 Kansas State
    No. 137 Oklahoma State 

    T-Rank 
    Texas is No. 22 in Bart Torvik’s rankings headed into Saturday. 

    2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
    Texas checks in at No. 25 headed into college games this weekend. 

    What it means for Texas

    The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament headed into the weekend. That resume is aided by Quad 1 wins at Oklahoma, and over Baylor and TCU in Big 12 play. 

    While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 30 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked from 20-30 area. 

    Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. 

    Sitting at 5-6 with four Quad 1 road games remaining, 8-10 may be the best case scenario. 

    Texas and seeding:

    Scenario 1: 19-12, 8-10 is likely a 9-10 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

    Scenario 2: 20-11, 9-9 would likely be a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

    Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would likely send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. 

    Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10, 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning five of last seven vs. a very difficult closing stretch of the schedule.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches.

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    Neil Leininger
    1 hour ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    I do think he will play one year at Texas. He likes the idea of being a college player ... and he has nice NIL runway

    I will say it until I am blue in the face, but Ron Holland made a really bad decision. He could have been a one year star here, and eventually taken over the offense in place of Hunter. Shooting 24% BTA in the GLeague is not doing a lot for his draft stock. He's playing in a glorified AAU league which has not had a lot of success of one and dones getting drafted into the NBA. I guess he has a shot to rebuild his stock this weekend.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    1 hour ago, Orngblud05 said:

    Sweeping the home games is an absolute must. While possible, seems unlikely they will get one on the road.  

    100% agree. The road games that were the ones to win (barring key injury late in season) have already happened.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    13 hours ago, Neil Leininger said:

    I will say it until I am blue in the face, but Ron Holland made a really bad decision. He could have been a one year star here, and eventually taken over the offense in place of Hunter. Shooting 24% BTA in the GLeague is not doing a lot for his draft stock. He's playing in a glorified AAU league which has not had a lot of success of one and dones getting drafted into the NBA. I guess he has a shot to rebuild his stock this weekend.

    Agreed. And he is 6-6.25 without shoes ... his draft stock has fallen as the G-league season has gone on. 

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    Hermanator

    They aren't getting this game barring drastic changes. Houston is amped up, their crowd is amped up, and we look like our inconsistent selves. 

    Edited by Hermanator
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    Realist Horn
    34 minutes ago, NothinButDaHorns34 said:

    They are not making the tournament and terry isn’t a coach that’ll get us there. Can’t blame CDC for hiring him, But i don’t think he’s a championship level coach. 

    CDC should have made the contract very easy to get out of. I wasn’t against the hiring last year because he just had to stear the ship that Beard had already put on course.  If they want to cut bait this season, I wouldn’t be mad, but I cannot watch half the games the play is so bad. 

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    CoachBobbyFinstock

    Texas has to win the games they are supposed to. Ou, KSU and Okla St are must wins.  No hiccups.

    Then they have to hope they can maybe pull an upset somewhere. I don’t see any left on the schedule right now. I would absolutely love to see them beat Tech in Lubbock.

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    Gerry Hamilton
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    10 hours ago, AlphaOptions said:

    Posted the question after reading this article 9 hours ago that there are 9 teams from Big 12 in NCAA tournament projected including Texas (8 of 9) according to ESPN, and it made me wonder when the official list would be available.   https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2024/02/17/nine-big-12-teams-in-ncaa-tournament-in-latest-bracketology/

    March 17. 

    Still have three weeks left of regular season and then conference tournaments ... then the announcement show 

     

    https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-04-25/2024-selection-sunday-date-schedule-tv-times

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